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Australia. Championship NBL 1
Australia. Championship NBL 1 International
25.07.2026 04:00 UTC
25.07.2026 04:00 UTC
Not started

Australia. Championship NBL 1

Perry Lakes Hawks - Geraldton Buccaneers

International Basketball
Perry Lakes Hawks
Perry Lakes Hawks
- : -
Not started
Geraldton Buccaneers
Geraldton Buccaneers
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Geraldton Buccaneers — 52%

1 · Perry Lakes Hawks48.3%
2 · Geraldton Buccaneers51.7%

Model estimate: win Perry Lakes Hawks 48.3%, win Geraldton Buccaneers 51.7%. Model favourite — Geraldton Buccaneers.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Geraldton Buccaneers (odds1.25) Score 79:81 Under 190.5 (odds1.85) Handicap H1 +8.5 (odds1.85) confidence 52%
  • • Dzheraldton Bukkanirs: forma VV (2-0)
  • • Model backs Dzheraldton Bukkanirs: probability 52% vs 80% on the line (odds 1.25)
  • • no edge over the line (-28 pp) — informational only
  • • Total: Under 190.5: model expects a total of ~160 ochk
  • • at line 190.5 (odds 1.85)
  • • Handicap F1 +8.5: score forecast 79:81 (diff -2) covers the line (odds 1.85).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Perry Lakes Hawks - Geraldton Buccaneers July 25, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Geraldton Buccaneers. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 6.00 / 2 1.09

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.4%
1 15.4%
2 84.6%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Pobeditel P1 3.55 → 3.55
Pobeditel P2 1.25 → 1.25

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 25.07.2026 04:00 UTC
Form 2 matches
Match center

Perry Lakes Hawks - Geraldton Buccaneers

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 2/2 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line Movement Overview
More needed
H2H Championat, Flashscore
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries
Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Perry Lakes Hawks 26.0% 48.3%
Geraldton Buccaneers 74.0% 51.7% market and model agree

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Basketball math model
P1 / P2 48.3% / 51.7% probabilities
Rating 1,500 / 1,928 Perry Lakes Hawks / Geraldton Buccaneers
RD 350 / 268 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 800-2,200 / 1,392-2,465 strength interval
HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.09 Fonbet · no value · model 51.7%
1 6.00 Fonbet · weak value +190.1% · model 48.3%
Total
Over 190.5 1.85 Fonbet · line only
Over 191.5 1.82 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
— — 1.85 54.1%
— — 1.90 52.6%
— — 1.90 52.6%
— — 1.85 54.1%
— — 1.85 54.1%
— — 1.85 54.1%
1.83 54.6% 1.83 54.6% —
— — 1.85 54.1%
— — 1.80 55.6%
— — 1.80 55.6%
— — 1.85 54.1%
— — 1.85 54.1%
— — 1.85 54.1%
— — 1.85 54.1%
— — 1.85 54.1%
1.83 54.6% 1.87 53.5% —

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
Over 190.5 1.83 54.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.85 54.1%
Over 191.5 — — 1.82 55.0%
Under 190.5 1.83 54.6% 1.87 53.5% 1.85 54.1%
Under 191.5 — — 1.88 53.2%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Leon
3.50 28.6% 3.40 29.4% 6.00 16.7% 3.62 27.6%
1.22 82.0% 1.27 78.7% 1.09 91.7% 1.31 76.3%
Match center
Perry Lakes Hawks
W W
18.07 11:00 UTC+0 Australia. Championship NBL 1
Perry Lakes Hawks 91:73 Ist Pert Iglz
11.07 10:00 UTC+0 Australia. Championship NBL 1
Perry Lakes Hawks 94:84 Kokbern Kugars
2 Wins
0 Losses
92.5 Scored
78.5 Conceded
100% Win percentage
Geraldton Buccaneers
W W
18.07 11:00 UTC Australia. Championship NBL 1
Geraldton Buccaneers 91:73 Ist Pert Iglz
11.07 10:00 UTC Australia. Championship NBL 1
Geraldton Buccaneers 94:84 Kokbern Kugars
2 Wins
0 Losses
92.5 Scored
78.5 Conceded
100% Win percentage