Match center
Start
05.07.2026 00:00 UTC
05.07.2026 00:00 UTC
Finished
Australia. Women. NBL 1
Keilor Thunder - Casey Cavaliers
49
:
59
Finished
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Keilor Thunder - Casey Cavaliers 5 июля 2026
Basketball math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite Fonbet: Keilor Thunder. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.50 / 2 2.42
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner
bookmaker margin 8.0%
1
61.7%
2
38.3%
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Basketball stats
Head-to-head and team form
Head-to-head
Team form
Keilor Thunder
Overall
LLLWW
Net -7.8
Home
LWL
Net -4.2
Away
LLW
Net -11.8
Casey Cavaliers
Overall
WWLLW
Net +6.2
Home
WLW
Net -2.7
Away
WLW
Net +15.1
Team stats
Keilor Thunder
Overall · Home/Away
Casey Cavaliers
26.3%H 30.0% · A 22.2%Win %55.6%H 22.2% · A 88.9%
-7.8H -4.2 · A -11.8Point differential6.2H -2.7 · A 15.1
85.5H 85.5 · A 85.6Points per game88.9H 89.6 · A 88.2
89.4H 87.6 · A 91.4Conceded85.8H 90.9 · A 80.7
50.4%H 49.5% · A 51.4%FG, %48.6%H 47.0% · A 50.2%
47.4H 60.0 · A 33.31st half61.1H 44.4 · A 77.8
73.9H 73.6 · A 74.4Pace75.4H 76.4 · A 74.4
115.8H 115.2 · A 116.5Offensive rating116.9H 115.7 · A 118.2
121.1H 120.4 · A 121.8Defensive rating112.8H 111.6 · A 114.1
Team totals distribution
Over 70.5 - 100.5
Keilor Thunder
Total (over)
Casey Cavaliers
85.5
Points per game
88.9
63.2%
O 83.5
72.2%
57.9%
O 84.5
72.2%
47.4%
O 85.5
66.7%
47.4%
O 86.5
61.1%
42.1%
O 87.5среднее
55.6%
31.6%
O 88.5
55.6%
26.3%
O 89.5
50.0%
15.8%
O 90.5
44.4%
Over 101.5 - 130.5
Keilor Thunder
Total (over)
Casey Cavaliers
0.0%
O 101.5
5.6%
Points by period
1st half (Q1+Q2)
Points per game: Keilor Thunder 42.3 / Casey Cavaliers 46.4
Keilor Thunder
Total (over)
Casey Cavaliers
52.6%
O 42.5
66.7%
47.4%
O 43.5
66.7%
42.1%
O 44.5среднее
66.7%
42.1%
O 45.5
55.6%
2nd half (Q3+Q4)
Points per game: Keilor Thunder 43.2 / Casey Cavaliers 41.3
Keilor Thunder
Total (over)
Casey Cavaliers
73.7%
O 40.5
44.4%
68.4%
O 41.5
33.3%
52.6%
O 42.5среднее
33.3%
36.8%
O 43.5
33.3%
Rest and schedule
Team freshness
Keilor Thunder
No recent matches
Casey Cavaliers
Back-to-back / no rest- Rest days: 1
- Matches in 7 days: 2 (in 14: 2)
Rest and schedule density — from matches played in our database. For reference.
Totals and pace
Team scoring
Keilor Thunder
167.5 points/match (over 10)
- Scores: 87.4
- Concedes: 80.1
Casey Cavaliers
175.5 points/match (over 10)
- Scores: 87.1
- Concedes: 88.4
Total line: 179.5 · projection from form: 171.5 · Over in 30% of recent games
Average scoring and pace — from matches played in our database. For reference, not a prediction.
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Match center
Keilor Thunder - Casey Cavaliers
Form
5/4
recent games
H2H
1
head-to-head matches
Market
0
model / bookmakers
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
2.42
Fonbet · line only
1
1.50
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 152.5
1.85
Fonbet · line only
Over 153.5
1.85
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Handicap
| Outcome | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| П1 +1.5 | 1.90 52.6% | — |
| П1 +2.5 | 1.80 55.6% | — |
| П1 +3.5 | 1.85 54.1% | — |
| П1 +4.5 | 1.85 54.1% | — |
| П1 +5.5 | 1.85 54.1% | — |
| П1 -1.5 | 1.85 54.1% | — |
| П1 -3.5 | 1.85 54.1% | — |
| П1 -4.5 | 1.85 54.1% | — |
| П2 +1.5 | 1.80 55.6% | 1.90 52.6% |
| П2 +2.5 | 1.90 52.6% | — |
| П2 +3.5 | 1.85 54.1% | 1.94 51.6% |
| П2 +4.5 | 1.85 54.1% | — |
| П2 +5.5 | 1.85 54.1% | — |
| П2 -1.5 | 1.85 54.1% | — |
| П2 -3.5 | 1.85 54.1% | — |
| П2 -4.5 | 1.85 54.1% | — |
Total
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| ТБ 74.5 | 1.80 55.6% |
| ТБ 75.5 | 1.80 55.6% |
| ТБ 76.5 | 1.90 52.6% |
| ТБ 152.5 | 1.85 54.1% |
| ТБ 153.5 | 1.85 54.1% |
| ТБ 154.5 | 1.85 54.1% |
| ТБ 155.5 | 1.82 55.0% |
| ТБ 156.5 | 1.85 54.1% |
| ТБ 157.5 | 1.82 55.0% |
| ТБ 158.5 | 1.82 55.0% |
| ТБ 159.5 | 1.85 54.1% |
| ТБ 177.5 | 1.85 54.1% |
| ТБ 178.5 | 1.82 55.0% |
| ТБ 179.5 | 1.82 55.0% |
| ТБ 180.5 | 1.82 55.0% |
| ТБ 181.5 | 1.85 54.1% |
| ТБ 182.5 | 1.82 55.0% |
| ТБ 184.5 | 1.82 55.0% |
Outcome (1X2)
| Outcome | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| П1 | 1.50 66.7% | 1.61 62.1% |
| П2 | 2.42 41.3% | 2.39 41.8% |
Match center
Keilor Thunder
W
W
W
W
L
Keilor Thunder
84:73
Casey Cavaliers
Casey Cavaliers
Keilor Thunder
82:63
Sandringkhem Seybers (Zh)
Sandringkhem Seybers (Zh)
Keilor Thunder
81:73
Ballarat (Zh)
Ballarat (Zh)
Keilor Thunder
82:80
Melburn Taygers (Zh)
Melburn Taygers (Zh)
Keilor Thunder
90:95
Dandenong Reyndzhers (Zh)
Dandenong Reyndzhers (Zh)
4
Wins
1
Losses
83.8
Scored
76.8
Conceded
80%
Win percentage
Casey Cavaliers
L
L
L
W
Casey Cavaliers
91:105
Kilsayt Kobras (Zh)
Casey Cavaliers
73:84
Keilor Thunder
Keilor Thunder
Casey Cavaliers
78:95
Ballarat (Zh)
Ballarat (Zh)
Casey Cavaliers
83:70
Melburn Taygers (Zh)
Melburn Taygers (Zh)
1
Wins
3
Losses
81.3
Scored
88.5
Conceded
25%
Win percentage
Match center
Full head-to-head historyKeilor Thunder - Casey Cavaliers
Keilor Thunder
1
matches total
Keilor Thunder: 1 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Casey Cavaliers: 0 (0%)
Biggest win
Keilor Thunder 84:73 (14.06 00:30 UTC)
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
157 goals (84:73, 14.06 00:30 UTC)
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Keilor Thunder
84:73
Casey Cavaliers