Match center
Start
05.07.2026 16:00 UTC
05.07.2026 16:00 UTC
Finished
Europe: World Cup - Qualifying - First qualifying round
Italy - Lithuania
87
:
84
Finished
Match signals
Two independent model estimates. Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
🔒 «Formula lock»
2Lithuania — 65%
The formula agrees with the market favourite in the moderate-odds zone — historically the most profitable slice (basketball/football/hockey). NOT a profit guarantee.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Italy - Lithuania July 5, 2026
Basketball math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite Fonbet: Lithuania. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- Win odds (Fonbet): 1 2.10 / 2 1.70
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner
bookmaker margin 6.4%
1
44.7%
2
55.3%
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Basketball stats
Head-to-head and team form
Team form
Italy
Overall
WWL
Net +28.0
Home
W
Away
WL
Net -1.0
Lithuania
Overall
WWW
Net +56.7
Home
WW
Net +59.0
Away
W
Net +52.0
Team stats
Italy
Overall · Home/Away
Lithuania
66.7%H 100.0% · A 50.0%Win %100.0%H 100.0% · A 100.0%
28.0A -1.0Point differential56.7H 59.0 · A 52.0
86.3H 105.0 · A 77.0Points per game88.3H 89.5 · A 86.0
72.3H 62.0 · A 77.5Conceded60.0H 60.0 · A 60.0
0.0H 0.0 · A 0.01st half0.0H 0.0 · A 0.0
Team totals distribution
Over 70.5 - 100.5
Italy
Total (over)
Lithuania
86.3
Points per game
88.3
66.7%
O 83.5
66.7%
33.3%
O 84.5
66.7%
33.3%
O 85.5
66.7%
33.3%
O 86.5
33.3%
33.3%
O 87.5srednee
33.3%
33.3%
O 88.5
33.3%
33.3%
O 89.5
33.3%
33.3%
O 90.5
33.3%
Over 101.5 - 130.5
Italy
Total (over)
Lithuania
33.3%
O 101.5
33.3%
33.3%
O 102.5
33.3%
33.3%
O 103.5
0.0%
33.3%
O 104.5
0.0%
Rest and schedule
Team freshness
Italy
Normal schedule- Rest days: 3
- Matches in 7 days: 1 (in 14: 3)
Lithuania
Normal schedule- Rest days: 3
- Matches in 7 days: 2 (in 14: 2)
Rest and schedule density — from matches played in our database. For reference.
Totals and pace
Team scoring
Italy
179 points/match (over 3)
- Scores: 95.3
- Concedes: 83.7
Lithuania
149 points/match (over 2)
- Scores: 77
- Concedes: 72
Total line: 171.5 · projection from form: 164 · Over in 40% of recent games
Average scoring and pace — from matches played in our database. For reference, not a prediction.
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Match center
Italy - Lithuania
Basketball, Italy - Lithuania, 5 iyulya 2026: Highlights matches, schet 87 : 84, statistika and rezultaty, video golov. ChM-2027 — Europe. Vo skolko nachalo matches Italy - Lithuania, gde smotret pryamoy efir, smotret onlayn translyatsiyu matches.
Form
1/1
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
0
model / bookmakers
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
1.70
Fonbet · line only
1
2.10
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 153.5
1.42
Fonbet · line only
Over 154.5
1.40
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Handicap
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.84 54.4% | 1.90 52.6% | — | |
| 1.81 55.3% | 1.87 53.5% | — | |
| 1.84 54.4% | 1.90 52.6% | — | |
| 1.80 55.6% | 1.86 53.8% | — | |
| — | — | 1.30 76.9% | |
| 1.84 54.4% | 1.90 52.6% | 1.35 74.1% | |
| 1.87 53.5% | 1.93 51.8% | — | |
| 1.84 54.4% | 1.90 52.6% | — | |
| 1.88 53.2% | 1.94 51.6% | — |
Total
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| Over 162.5 | 1.87 53.5% | 1.93 51.8% |
| Over 165.5 | 1.84 54.4% | 1.90 52.6% |
| Over 168.5 | 1.79 55.9% | 1.85 54.1% |
| Over 170.5 | 1.87 53.5% | 1.93 51.8% |
| Over 171.5 | 1.84 54.4% | 1.90 52.6% |
| Over 173.5 | 1.88 53.2% | 1.94 51.6% |
| Under 162.5 | 1.81 55.3% | — |
| Under 165.5 | 1.84 54.4% | — |
| Under 168.5 | 1.89 52.9% | — |
| Under 170.5 | 1.81 55.3% | — |
| Under 171.5 | 1.84 54.4% | — |
| Under 173.5 | 1.80 55.6% | — |
Outcome (1X2)
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.60 38.5% | 2.70 37.0% | 2.10 47.6% | 2.89 34.6% | |
| 1.42 70.4% | 1.46 68.5% | 1.70 58.8% | 1.48 67.6% |
Match center
Italy
W
Italy
102:83
Iceland
1
Wins
0
Losses
102.0
Scored
83.0
Conceded
100%
Win percentage
Lithuania
W
Lithuania
80:65
Velikobritaniya
1
Wins
0
Losses
80.0
Scored
65.0
Conceded
100%
Win percentage
Match center
Full head-to-head historyItaly - Lithuania
Italy
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1
Italy
Team 2
Lithuania
Italy
Team comparison
Lithuania
5
Games
5
4
Wins
3
1
Losses
2
437
Scored
459
377
Conceded
423
9
Points
8
Italy Lithuania 5 Games 5 4 Wins 3 1 Losses 2 437 Scored 459 377 Conceded 423 9 Points 8 Rezultaty golosovaniya Iskhod v osnovnoe vremya 57% 4% 39% Double chance 31% 47% 22% Materialy po prognozam Natravit Barbozu. Brazil budet mstit Argentine Budet li Kazlauskas snova igrat v poddavki? CHAMP('pageBlockSlider'); CHAMP({ name: 'commentsWidget', params: { appId: CHAMP.comments['appId'], xid: 'match_1289562' } }); CHAMP('tournamentTabs'); CHAMP('swipingTabs'); CHAMP('match'); CHAMP('stickyVertical');