Europe: Evrobasket U20 - Playoff
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)
1 Serbia U20 — 80%
Pure model vs market (1 · Serbia U20): model 54% · market 92% Δ −38 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Serbia U20 80.1%, win Italy U20 19.9%. Model favourite — Serbia U20.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Serbia U20.
For reference
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
For reference
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: 100 RUB
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Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.
Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.
Best value: value не найден
The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Baltbet | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|
| П1 -11.5 | 1.84 54.4% | — |
| П1 -12.5 | 1.89 52.9% | — |
| П1 -13.5 | 1.84 54.4% | — |
| П2 +11.5 | 1.84 54.4% | — |
| П2 +12.5 | 1.79 55.9% | — |
| П2 +13.5 | 1.84 54.4% | — |
| П2 -10.5 | — | 2.10 47.6% |
| П2 -11.5 | — | 2.55 39.2% |
| П2 -12.5 | — | 2.30 43.5% |
| П2 -13.5 | — | 2.55 39.2% |
| П2 -14.5 | — | 2.35 42.6% |
| П2 -15.5 | — | 2.40 41.7% |
| П2 -16.5 | — | 2.40 41.7% |
| П2 -17.5 | — | 2.45 40.8% |
| П2 -18.5 | — | 2.60 38.5% |
| П2 -19.5 | — | 2.35 42.6% |
| П2 -20.5 | — | 2.15 46.5% |
| П2 -21.5 | — | 2.55 39.2% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|
| ТБ 141.5 | — | 1.53 65.4% |
| ТБ 142.5 | — | 1.60 62.5% |
| ТБ 143.5 | — | 1.55 64.5% |
| ТБ 144.5 | 1.81 55.3% | 1.50 66.7% |
| ТБ 145.5 | 1.84 54.4% | 1.57 63.7% |
| ТБ 146.5 | 1.84 54.4% | 1.42 70.4% |
| ТБ 147.5 | 1.84 54.4% | 1.65 60.6% |
| ТБ 148.5 | — | 1.92 52.1% |
| ТБ 149.5 | — | 1.55 64.5% |
| ТБ 150.5 | — | 1.95 51.3% |
| ТМ 144.5 | 1.87 53.5% | — |
| ТМ 145.5 | 1.84 54.4% | — |
| ТМ 146.5 | 1.84 54.4% | — |
| ТМ 147.5 | 1.84 54.4% | — |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Bet365 | Bet365 (no latency) | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| П1 | 1.12 89.3% | 15.00 6.7% | 1.03 97.6% | 1.01 99.0% | 1.15 87.0% |
| П2 | 5.20 19.2% | 1.01 99.0% | 10.50 9.5% | 11.00 9.1% | 5.20 19.2% |
Serbia U20
Латвия U20
Литва U20
Польша U20
Румыния U20
Italy U20
Турция U20
Франция U20
Германия U20
Германия U20
Испания U20
Full head-to-head historySerbia U20 - Italy U20
