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Philippines: MPBL
Philippines: MPBL
05.07.2026 10:00 UTC Match prediction
05.07.2026 10:00 UTC
Finished

Philippines: MPBL

Pasig City - Mindoro Tamaraws

Basketball
Pasig City
Pasig City
69 : 68
Finished
Mindoro Tamaraws
Mindoro Tamaraws

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Pasig City - Mindoro Tamaraws July 5, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Pasig City. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.68 / 2 2.05

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.3%
1 55.0%
2 45.0%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Basketball stats

Head-to-head and team form

Head-to-head

2Wins1
66.7%Win %33.3%
83.7Points per game69.0
115.6Offensive rating82.9
95.4Defensive rating100.5
14.7Point differential-14.7
72.0Assists55.0
132.0Rebounds107.0
30.3%3-pointers, %33.7%

Team form

Pasig City
Overall WWWWW Net +30.1
Home WWW Net +19.1
Away WWW Net +44.3
Mindoro Tamaraws
Overall WWLLL Net +5.7
Home WL Net +7.4
Away WLLW Net +4.0

Team stats

Pasig City Overall · Home/Away Mindoro Tamaraws
81.3%H 66.7% · A 100.0%Win %50.0%H 57.1% · A 42.9%
30.1H 19.1 · A 44.3Point differential5.7H 7.4 · A 4.0
85.3H 76.2 · A 97.0Points per game87.3H 88.6 · A 86.0
70.3H 66.7 · A 74.9Conceded84.4H 84.9 · A 84.0
45.1%H 42.0% · A 49.1%FG, %42.4%H 43.3% · A 41.4%
75.0H 55.61st half28.6H 28.6 · A 28.6
78.2H 76.0 · A 81.1Pace82.7H 83.3 · A 82.0
109.4H 113.0 · A 105.1Offensive rating105.1H 104.4 · A 105.8
90.1H 93.1 · A 86.5Defensive rating101.6H 101.0 · A 102.3

Team totals distribution

Over 70.5 - 100.5

Pasig City Total (over) Mindoro Tamaraws
85.3 Points per game 87.3
43.8%
O 82.5
57.1%
43.8%
O 83.5
42.9%
43.8%
O 84.5
42.9%
43.8%
O 85.5
42.9%
43.8%
O 86.5среднее
42.9%
43.8%
O 87.5
42.9%
43.8%
O 88.5
35.7%
37.5%
O 89.5
35.7%

Over 101.5 - 130.5

Pasig City Total (over) Mindoro Tamaraws
12.5%
O 111.5
7.1%
12.5%
O 112.5
7.1%
12.5%
O 113.5
7.1%
6.3%
O 114.5
7.1%
6.3%
O 115.5
7.1%
6.3%
O 116.5
7.1%
6.3%
O 117.5
7.1%
6.3%
O 118.5
7.1%

Points by period

1st half (Q1+Q2)

Points per game: Pasig City 41.3 / Mindoro Tamaraws —

Pasig City Total (over) Mindoro Tamaraws
37.5%
O 40.5
35.7%
37.5%
O 41.5среднее
28.6%
37.5%
O 42.5
28.6%
37.5%
O 43.5
28.6%
2nd half (Q3+Q4)

Points per game: Pasig City 44.0 / Mindoro Tamaraws 48.1

Pasig City Total (over) Mindoro Tamaraws
50.0%
O 44.5
57.1%
43.8%
O 45.5
42.9%
31.3%
O 46.5среднее
42.9%
31.3%
O 47.5
35.7%

Rest and schedule

Team freshness

Pasig City
Well rested
  • Rest days: 5
  • Matches in 7 days: 1 (in 14: 1)
Mindoro Tamaraws
No recent matches

Rest and schedule density — from matches played in our database. For reference.

Totals and pace

Team scoring

Pasig City
169.9 points/match (over 7)
  • Scores: 84.9
  • Concedes: 85
Mindoro Tamaraws
167.7 points/match (over 6)
  • Scores: 83.8
  • Concedes: 83.8

Average scoring and pace — from matches played in our database. For reference, not a prediction.

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Match center
Start 05.07.2026 10:00 UTC
Match center

Pasig City - Mindoro Tamaraws

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.05 Fonbet · line only
1 1.68 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 137.5 1.87 Fonbet · line only
Over 139.5 1.95 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
1.68 59.5%
1.77 56.5%
1.85 54.1%
1.85 54.1%
1.90 52.6%
2.07 48.3%
1.87 53.5%
1.93 51.8%
2.05 48.8%
1.93 51.8%
1.85 54.1%
1.85 54.1%
1.80 55.6%
1.67 59.9%
1.83 54.6%
1.77 56.5%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 137.5 1.87 53.5%
Over 139.5 1.95 51.3%
Over 141.5 1.95 51.3%
Over 143.5 1.85 54.1%
Over 144.5 1.80 55.6%
Over 145.5 1.80 55.6%
Over 146.5 1.87 53.5%
Over 150.5 1.83 54.6%
Over 153.5 1.90 52.6%
Over 155.5 1.83 54.6%
Over 165.5 1.87 53.5%
Over 175.5 1.87 53.5%
Under 137.5 1.83 54.6%
Under 139.5 1.75 57.1%
Under 141.5 1.75 57.1%
Under 143.5 1.85 54.1%
Under 144.5 1.90 52.6%
Under 145.5 1.90 52.6%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Fonbet
1.68 59.5%
2.05 48.8%
Match center
Pasig City
L W W L L
30.06 10:00 UTC Philippines: MPBL
Pasig City 55:93 Quezon HuskersQuezon Huskers
11.06 06:00 UTC Philippines: MPBL
Pasig City 92:65 Rizal Golden CoolersRizal Golden Coolers
08.06 06:00 UTC Philippines: MPBL
Pasig City 96:84 Bacolod MasskaraBacolod Masskara
03.06 06:00 UTC Philippines: MPBL
Pasig City 84:100 Ilagan Isabela CowboysIlagan Isabela Cowboys
28.05 06:00 UTC Philippines: MPBL
Pasig City 89:91 Zamboanga SikatZamboanga Sikat
2 Wins
3 Losses
83.2 Scored
86.6 Conceded
40% Win percentage
Mindoro Tamaraws
L L L W W
13.06 08:00 UTC Philippines: MPBL
Mindoro Tamaraws 88:91 Batang KankalooBatang Kankaloo
09.06 10:00 UTC Philippines: MPBL
Mindoro Tamaraws 79:89 Ilagan Isabela CowboysIlagan Isabela Cowboys
02.06 08:00 UTC Philippines: MPBL
Mindoro Tamaraws 71:77 Batangas CityBatangas City
27.05 10:00 UTC Philippines: MPBL
Mindoro Tamaraws 104:81 Imus BraderhoodImus Braderhood
21.05 06:00 UTC Philippines: MPBL
Mindoro Tamaraws 83:81 Bataan RisersBataan Risers
2 Wins
3 Losses
85.0 Scored
83.8 Conceded
40% Win percentage