IPBL
IPBL International
15.07.2026 12:00 MSK
Finished

IPBL

Samara - Krasnodar

International Basketball
Samara
Samara
96 : 89
Finished
Krasnodar
Krasnodar
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Samara62%

1 · Samara ✓ Прогноз62.3%
market43%
2 · Krasnodar37.7%
market57%

Model estimate: win Samara 62.3%, win Krasnodar 37.7%. Model favourite — Samara.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Samara - Krasnodar 15 июля 2026

Basketball math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Krasnodar.

Line favourite Fonbet: Krasnodar. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 2.15 / 2 1.62
  • Glicko: Samara 62.3% / Krasnodar 37.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.2%
1 ✓ Прогноз 43.0%
2 57.0%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Победитель П1 1.58 ↓ 1.07
Победитель П2 2.23 ↑ 6.80

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 15.07.2026 12:00 MSK
Form 6 matches
H2H 3
Match center

Samara - Krasnodar

В базе учтены недавние матчи обоих участников и 3 очных встреч.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement Overview
More needed
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 96:89
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Samara 86.4% 62.3% market and model agree
Krasnodar 13.6% 37.7%
1X2: 1 Bookies

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Basketball math model
P1 / P2 62.3% / 37.7% probabilities
Rating 1,630 / 1,435 Samara / Krasnodar
RD 95 / 95 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,439-1,821 / 1,245-1,625 strength interval
HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: value не найден

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.62 Fonbet · no value · model 37.7%
1 2.15 Fonbet · value +33.9% · model 62.3%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.90 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 1.90 Fonbet · line only
1 -0.5 1.80 Fonbet · line only
1 +0.5 1.80 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 174.5 1.68 Fonbet · line only
Over 175.5 1.76 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
П2 -0.5 1.90 52.6%
П2 -1.5 1.83 54.6%
П2 -10.5 1.83 54.6%
П2 -11.5 2.00 50.0%
П2 -12.5 1.75 57.1%
П2 -13.5 1.65 60.6%
П2 -14.5 1.50 66.7%
П2 -15.5 1.94 51.6%
П2 -16.5 1.77 56.5%
П2 -17.5 1.62 61.7%
П2 -18.5 1.50 66.7%
П2 -19.5 1.90 52.6%
П2 -2.5 1.72 58.1%
П2 -20.5 1.72 58.1%
П2 -21.5 1.60 62.5%
П2 -22.5 1.72 58.1%
П2 -23.5 1.60 62.5%
П2 -24.5 1.63 61.4%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
ТБ 174.5 1.68 59.5%
ТБ 175.5 1.76 56.8%
ТБ 176.5 1.83 54.6%
ТБ 177.5 1.93 51.8%
ТБ 178.5 2.00 50.0%
ТБ 179.5 2.10 47.6%
ТБ 180.5 1.87 53.5%
ТБ 181.5 1.95 51.3%
ТБ 182.5 2.05 48.8%
ТБ 183.5 1.46 68.5%
ТБ 184.5 1.85 54.1%
ТБ 185.5 2.13 47.0%
ТБ 186.5 1.95 51.3%
ТБ 187.5 2.23 44.8%
ТБ 188.5 2.55 39.2%
ТБ 189.5 2.40 41.7%
ТБ 190.5 2.25 44.4%
ТБ 191.5 1.60 62.5%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Fonbet
П1 2.15 46.5%
П2 1.62 61.7%
Match center
Samara
W W W L W
13.07 16:00 МСК IPBL
Samara 99:80 Tyumen
13.07 14:00 МСК IPBL
Samara 101:85 Kazan
13.07 12:00 МСК IPBL
Samara 98:85 Krasnodar
09.07 16:00 МСК IPBL
Samara 83:91 Tyumen
09.07 14:00 МСК IPBL
Samara 90:77 Kazan
4 Wins
1 Losses
94.2 Scored
83.6 Conceded
80% Win percentage
Krasnodar
L W L W W
13.07 17:00 МСК IPBL
Krasnodar 88:107 Kazan
13.07 15:00 МСК IPBL
Krasnodar 83:79 Tyumen
13.07 12:00 МСК IPBL
Krasnodar 85:98 SamaraSamara
09.07 17:00 МСК IPBL
Krasnodar 95:88 Kazan
09.07 15:00 МСК IPBL
Krasnodar 94:76 Tyumen
3 Wins
2 Losses
89.0 Scored
89.6 Conceded
60% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historySamara - Krasnodar

Samara
2 matches total
Krasnodar
Samara: 2 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Krasnodar: 0 (0%)
Biggest win Samara 97:76 (09.07 12:00 МСК) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 183 goals (98:85, 13.07 12:00 МСК) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw draw with the most goals

Match history

13.07 12:00 МСК IPBL
Samara
98:85
Krasnodar
09.07 12:00 МСК IPBL
Samara
97:76
Krasnodar