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NBL1, South
NBL1, South Australia
10.05.2026 04:00 UTC
10.05.2026 04:00 UTC
Finished

NBL1, South

Australia

Keilor Thunder - Hobart Chargers

Australia Basketball
Keilor Thunder
Keilor Thunder
- : -
Finished
Hobart Chargers
Hobart Chargers

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Keilor Thunder - Hobart Chargers May 10, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Keilor Thunder. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.01 / 2 11.00

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.1%
1 91.6%
2 8.4%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Team form

Keilor Thunder
8-2WWLWWWWWLW
points for 86.8points against 74.3
Hobart Chargers

no data

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

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Match center
Start 10.05.2026 04:00 UTC
Match center

Keilor Thunder - Hobart Chargers

Form 3/3 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.27 market consensus · line only
1 1.01 Fonbet · line only
Handicap
2 -1 1.88 market consensus · line only
2 -1.00 1.86 market consensus · line only
2 1 1.82 market consensus · line only
1 -1 1.86 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 176.5 1.82 Fonbet · line only
Over 176.75 1.80 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome 1xBet
1.82 55.0%
1.82 55.0%
1.82 55.0%
1.96 50.9%
1.85 54.1%
1.92 52.1%
1.92 52.1%
1.92 52.1%
1.60 62.3%
1.89 52.9%
1.85 54.1%
1.89 52.9%
1.84 54.4%
1.82 55.0%
1.89 52.9%
1.85 54.1%
1.87 53.5%
1.92 52.1%

Total

Outcome 1xBet
Over 176.75 1.80 55.7%
Over 177.5 1.78 56.1%
Over 178.5 1.87 53.5%
Over 180.5 1.92 52.1%
Over 183.5 1.92 52.1%
Over 186.5 1.89 52.9%
Over 188.5 1.93 52.0%
Over 189.5 1.85 54.1%
Over 191.5 1.92 52.1%
Over 195.5 1.77 56.7%
Under 176.75 1.82 54.8%
Under 177.5 1.71 58.3%
Under 178.5 1.87 53.5%
Under 180.5 1.82 55.0%
Under 183.5 1.82 55.0%
Under 186.5 1.85 54.1%
Under 188.5 1.78 56.2%
Under 189.5 1.89 52.9%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betfair Betsson Bwin CashPoint CloudBet
1.01 99.0% 1.55 64.5% 1.57 63.7% 1.01 99.5% 1.00 99.7% 1.09 91.7% 1.01 99.0% 1.10 90.9% 1.48 67.6%
11.00 9.1% 2.30 43.4% 2.38 42.1% 17.00 5.9% 21.00 4.8% 18.00 5.6% 17.00 5.9% 13.42 7.5% 2.40 41.7%
Match center
Keilor Thunder
W W L
03.05 04:00 UTC NBL1, South
Keilor Thunder 91:75 Geelong Supercats
02.05 10:00 UTC NBL1, South
Keilor Thunder 101:98 Diamond Valley Eagles
12.04 04:00 UTC NBL1, South
Keilor Thunder 94:100 Northern ForceNorthern Force
2 Wins
1 Losses
95.3 Scored
91.0 Conceded
67% Win percentage
Hobart Chargers
W L W
02.05 09:00 UTC NBL1, South
Hobart Chargers 104:79 Bendigo Braves
12.04 05:00 UTC NBL1, South
Hobart Chargers 75:90 Waverley Falcons
11.04 09:30 UTC NBL1, South
Hobart Chargers 105:89 Kilsyth Cobras
2 Wins
1 Losses
94.7 Scored
86.0 Conceded
67% Win percentage