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NBL1, South
NBL1, South Australia
10.05.2026 05:00 UTC
10.05.2026 05:00 UTC
Finished

NBL1, South

Australia

Waverley Falcons - Casey Cavaliers

Australia Basketball
Waverley Falcons
Waverley Falcons
- : -
Finished
Casey Cavaliers
Casey Cavaliers

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Waverley Falcons - Casey Cavaliers May 10, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Waverley Falcons. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.02 / 2 10.00

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.0%
1 90.7%
2 9.3%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Team form

Waverley Falcons

no data

Casey Cavaliers
6-4LWWWLLWWWL
points for 88.1points against 83.0

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

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Match center
Start 10.05.2026 05:00 UTC
Match center

Waverley Falcons - Casey Cavaliers

Form 3/2 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 10.00 Fonbet · line only
1 1.02 Fonbet · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.80 market consensus · line only
2 1 1.86 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.91 market consensus · line only
1 1 1.83 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 161.5 1.83 market consensus · line only
Over 162.5 1.80 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome 1xBet 888Sport
1.85 54.1% —
1.92 52.1% —
1.96 51.2% —
1.85 54.1% —
1.89 52.9% —
1.89 52.9% —
1.82 54.8% —
1.87 53.5% —
— 1.85 54.1%
1.89 52.9% 1.85 54.1%
1.82 55.0% —
1.79 55.9% —
1.89 52.9% —
1.85 54.1% —
1.85 54.1% —
1.71 58.5% —
1.87 53.5% —

Total

Outcome 1xBet
Over 164.5 1.85 54.1%
Over 167.5 1.89 52.9%
Over 169.5 1.79 55.9%
Over 170.5 1.89 52.9%
Over 171.5 1.87 53.5%
Over 173.5 1.92 52.1%
Over 174.5 1.85 54.1%
Over 178.5 1.87 53.5%
Over 183.5 1.87 53.5%
Over 184.5 1.71 58.4%
Over 184.75 1.79 55.8%
Over 185.25 1.80 55.7%
Over 185.5 1.84 54.4%
Over 185.75 1.81 55.1%
Under 164.5 1.89 52.9%
Under 167.5 1.85 54.1%
Under 169.5 1.96 51.2%
Under 170.5 1.85 54.1%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betfair Betsson Bwin CashPoint CloudBet
1.10 90.9% 2.16 46.4% 2.15 46.5% 1.95 51.2% 1.03 97.1% 1.09 91.7% 1.01 99.0% 1.07 93.5% 2.06 48.5%
5.75 17.4% 1.62 61.7% 1.70 58.8% 1.74 57.5% 10.00 10.0% 20.00 5.0% 17.00 5.9% 9.70 10.3% 1.67 59.9%
Match center
Waverley Falcons
L W L
03.05 05:00 UTC NBL1, South
Waverley Falcons 85:98 Dandenong Rangers
12.04 05:00 UTC NBL1, South
Waverley Falcons 90:75 Hobart Chargers
11.04 09:30 UTC NBL1, South
Waverley Falcons 94:97 Nunawading Spectres
1 Wins
2 Losses
89.7 Scored
90.0 Conceded
33% Win percentage
Casey Cavaliers
L L
02.05 09:30 UTC NBL1, South
Casey Cavaliers 82:88 Eltham Wildcats
11.04 09:30 UTC NBL1, South
Casey Cavaliers 90:101 Frankston Blues
0 Wins
2 Losses
86.0 Scored
94.5 Conceded
0% Win percentage