Match center
Start
18.07.2026 03:00 MSK
18.07.2026 03:00 MSK
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Superior Nasional
Capitanes de Arecibo - Santeros de Aguada
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🎯 PropickAI prediction
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Capitanes de Arecibo — 53%
Pure model vs market (1 · Capitanes de Arecibo): model 50% · market 71% Δ −21 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Capitanes de Arecibo 52.9%, win Santeros de Aguada 47.1%. Model favourite — Capitanes de Arecibo.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
1Capitanes de Arecibo (odds1.74)
confidence 57%
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Capitanes de Arecibo - Santeros de Aguada 18 июля 2026
Basketball math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite Fonbet: Capitanes de Arecibo. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.30 / 2 3.20
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner
bookmaker margin 8.2%
1
71.1%
2
28.9%
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Победитель П1
1.77
↓ 1.30
Победитель П2
1.94
↑ 3.20
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
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Match center
Capitanes de Arecibo - Santeros de Aguada
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
2
model / bookmakers
Flashscore
match data
source checked
Odds
match data
source checked
Bookiesapi
match data
source checked
Line depth
match data
source checked
Present in data
Market
Match
Participants
Line
Movement
More needed
Form
Championat, Flashscore
H2H
Championat, Flashscore
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
Championat, Injuries
Overview
Championat
Market and Glicko
Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Capitanes de Arecibo
53.1%
52.9%
market and model agree
Santeros de Aguada
46.9%
47.1%
Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.
Basketball math model
P1 / P2
52.9% / 47.1%
probabilities
Rating
1,500 / 1,500
Capitanes de Arecibo / Santeros de Aguada
RD
350 / 350
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
800-2,200 / 800-2,200
strength interval
HFA: 65
HFA mu: 0.374
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score
Best value: value не найден
The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
3.20
Fonbet · weak value +50.7% · model 47.1%
1
1.30
Fonbet · no value · model 52.9%
Total
Over 170.5
1.70
Fonbet · line only
Over 171.5
1.75
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Handicap
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| П1 +1.5 | 1.84 54.4% | — | — |
| П1 -1.5 | 1.79 55.9% | 1.85 54.1% | — |
| П1 -2.5 | 1.88 53.2% | — | — |
| П2 +1.5 | 1.88 53.2% | 1.85 54.1% | 2.30 43.5% |
| П2 +2.5 | 1.79 55.9% | — | — |
| П2 -1.5 | 1.84 54.4% | — | 1.90 52.6% |
| П2 -2.5 | — | — | 1.80 55.6% |
| П2 -3.5 | — | — | 1.72 58.1% |
| П2 -4.5 | — | — | 1.64 61.0% |
| П2 -5.5 | — | — | 2.07 48.3% |
| П2 -6.5 | — | — | 1.96 51.0% |
| П2 -7.5 | — | — | 1.85 54.1% |
| П2 -8.5 | — | — | 1.75 57.1% |
| П2 -9.5 | — | — | 1.67 59.9% |
Total
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| ТБ 170.5 | — | — | 1.70 58.8% |
| ТБ 171.5 | — | — | 1.75 57.1% |
| ТБ 172.5 | — | — | 1.70 58.8% |
| ТБ 173.5 | — | — | 1.70 58.8% |
| ТБ 174.5 | — | — | 1.70 58.8% |
| ТБ 175.5 | — | — | 1.77 56.5% |
| ТБ 176.5 | — | — | 1.85 54.1% |
| ТБ 177.5 | — | — | 1.94 51.6% |
| ТБ 178.5 | — | — | 2.03 49.3% |
| ТБ 179.5 | 1.87 53.5% | — | 1.77 56.5% |
| ТБ 181.5 | 1.89 52.9% | — | — |
| ТБ 183.5 | 1.85 54.1% | 1.86 53.8% | — |
| ТМ 179.5 | 1.81 55.3% | — | — |
| ТМ 181.5 | 1.79 55.9% | — | — |
| ТМ 183.5 | 1.83 54.6% | 1.84 54.4% | — |
Outcome (1X2)
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| П1 | 1.69 59.2% | 1.74 57.5% | 1.30 76.9% | 1.72 58.1% |
| П2 | 2.00 50.0% | 1.97 50.8% | 3.20 31.3% | 2.00 50.0% |
Match center
Full head-to-head historyCapitanes de Arecibo - Santeros de Aguada
Capitanes de Arecibo
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals