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WC 2026. Final
WC 2026. Final
14.07.2026 23:00 MSK Match prediction
14.07.2026 23:00 MSK
Finished

WC 2026. Final

Deportivo Merlo - Real Pilar

Futbol
Deportivo Merlo
Deportivo Merlo
3 : 2
Finished
Real Pilar
Real Pilar

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Deportivo Merlo - Real Pilar 14 июля 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like draw.

Line favourite market consensus: draw. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.62 / X 2.51 / 2 3.09
  • 1X2 market: Deportivo Merlo 34.5% / X 36.1% / Real Pilar 29.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 10.4%
1 34.6%
X 36.1%
2 29.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Primera B Metropolitana
League table
Deportivo Merlo
#931 ptsGP 218-7-626:28
DLLLD
Real Pilar
#732 ptsGP 219-5-724:23
WDDDW
Best price across 13 books
1 2.84 Pinnacle
X 2.65 Dafabet
2 3.65 Superbet

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Deportivo Merlo
W-D-L 3-3-4 Scored 1.10 Conceded 1.80 xG 0.91 xGA 1.00
Real Pilar
W-D-L 3-4-3 Scored 0.80 Conceded 1.00 xG 1.16 xGA 0.87

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
Deportivo Merlo
Rating 1486 xG 1.09 Win 36%
Real Pilar
Rating 1536 xG 1.05 Win 34%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

AI

Model consensus

Лидер исходов AI: П1

Main outcome П1
Agreement 1/1
Confidence 62.0%

Модели дают единый сигнал. Такие матчи мы помечаем как более сильные.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Deportivo Merlo 1 : 1 Real Pilar
12.58
X2.44
23.34

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:2/7 ready · Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Claude, Qwen, Kimi

Google AI updated14.07.2026 22:50 MSK
1 31%
X 39% ✓ favourite
2 30%
Score0:0 Total goals: ТМ 2.5 BTTS:Нет Bet:X2 и ТМ 2.5
Per AI data H2H: 1-3
GLM 5.2 updated14.07.2026 23:27 MSK
1 23%
X 42% ✓ favourite
2 35%
Score1:1 Total goals: ТМ 2.5 BTTS:Нет Bet:Двойной шанс X2
Per AI data H2H: 1-3

AI consensus:X

AI 1 X 2 Score Total goals BTTS Bet
Google AI 31% 39% 30% 0:0 ТМ 2.5 Нет X2 и ТМ 2.5
GLM 5.2 23% 42% 35% 1:1 ТМ 2.5 Нет Двойной шанс X2

Buy the full AI analysis

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Match center
Start 14.07.2026 23:00 MSK
Match center

Deportivo Merlo - Real Pilar

Form 5/3 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 3:2
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 10.00 Fonbet · line only
X 3.70 Fonbet · line only
1 1.01 Fonbet · line only
Double chance
12 1.23 Fonbet · line only
1X 1.05 Fonbet · line only
X2 1.33 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 0 7.60 Fonbet · line only
1 0 1.04 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.30 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 3.10 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.00 Fonbet · line only
Yes 1.73 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
П1 2.65 37.7% 2.63 38.0% 2.38 42.0% 2.72 36.8% 2.60 38.5% 2.30 43.5%
Х 2.62 38.2% 2.50 40.0% 2.75 36.4% 2.42 41.3% 2.60 38.5% 2.55 39.2%
П2 2.95 33.9% 3.14 31.9% 3.00 33.3% 3.25 30.8% 3.00 33.3% 2.70 37.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 2.00 50.0% 1.57 63.7%
yes 1.73 57.8% 2.25 44.4%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.60 62.5% 1.62 61.7% 1.23 81.3%
1x 1.23 81.3% 1.24 80.7% 1.05 95.2%
x2 1.32 75.8% 1.34 74.6% 12.00 8.3%

Exact Score

Outcome 10Bet
0_0 5.00 20.0%
0_1 5.50 18.2%
0_2 11.00 9.1%
0_3 31.00 3.2%
0_4 91.00 1.1%
1_0 5.00 20.0%
1_1 4.75 21.1%
1_2 10.00 10.0%
1_3 26.00 3.9%
1_4 76.00 1.3%
2_0 10.00 10.0%
2_1 9.00 11.1%
2_2 15.00 6.7%
2_3 46.00 2.2%
2_4 126.00 0.8%
3_0 26.00 3.9%
3_1 23.00 4.4%
3_2 41.00 2.4%
Match center
Deportivo Merlo
D L D L W
10.07 19:00 МСК Argentina: Primera B Standings
Deportivo Merlo 0:0 UAI UrkisaUAI Urkisa
04.07 19:00 МСК Argentina: Primera B Standings
Deportivo Merlo 1:2 Villa DalmineVilla Dalmine
14.06 23:00 МСК Argentina: Primera B Standings
Deportivo Merlo 2:2 Arkhentino de MerloArkhentino de Merlo
06.06 00:00 МСК Argentina: Primera B Standings
Deportivo Merlo 0:2 Taleres EskaladaTaleres Eskalada
02.06 23:00 МСК Argentina: Primera B Standings
Deportivo Merlo 2:1 LaferrereLaferrere
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.4 Conceded
5 Points
Real Pilar
D W L
05.07 17:00 МСК Argentina: Primera B Standings
Real Pilar 1:1 Sportivo ItalyanoSportivo Italyano
14.06 19:30 МСК Argentina: Primera B Standings
Real Pilar 1:0 LiniersLiniers
05.06 22:00 МСК Argentina: Primera B Standings
Real Pilar 0:2 ItusaingoItusaingo
1 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
0.7 Scored
1.0 Conceded
4 Points