Match center
Start
04.07.2026 19:00 UTC
04.07.2026 19:00 UTC
Finished
Brazil: Championship Brazilii D - Playoff
Marsilio Dias - Portuguesa Desportos
1
:
1
Finished
P
Portuguesa Desportos
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Marsilio Dias - Portuguesa Desportos July 4, 2026
Football math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite Fonbet: draw. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 3.00 / X 2.18 / 2 3.30
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 9.5%
1
30.4%
X
41.9%
2
27.7%
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Form and head-to-head • Serie D - Round of 32
Team stats
Marsilio Dias
WLWWWDLDDW
W 5 • D 3 • L 2 (10)
Goals average:1.3 : 0.8
2 place, 16 pts
Portuguesa Desportos
DWWLDWWWDW
W 6 • D 3 • L 1 (10)
Goals average:1.4 : 0.6
1 place, 21 pts
Form, head-to-head and league position: 365scores. For reference.
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Match center
Marsilio Dias - Portuguesa Desportos
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
0
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
pending
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
3.30
Fonbet · line only
X
2.18
Fonbet · line only
1
3.00
Fonbet · line only
Double chance
12
1.60
Fonbet · line only
1X
1.30
Fonbet · line only
X2
1.35
Fonbet · line only
Handicap
2 0
1.90
Fonbet · line only
1 0
1.80
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.38
Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5
2.80
Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No
2.25
Fonbet · line only
Yes
1.57
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| no | 2.25 44.4% | 1.48 67.6% |
| yes | 1.57 63.7% | 2.47 40.5% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.46 68.5% | 1.51 66.2% | 1.60 62.5% |
| 1x | 1.34 74.6% | 1.38 72.5% | 1.30 76.9% |
| x2 | 1.28 78.1% | 1.32 75.8% | 1.35 74.1% |
First Half Winner
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 4.55 22.0% | |
| X | 1.62 61.7% |
| 3.67 27.3% |
Goals Over/Under First Half
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.79 55.9% |
| Under 0.5 | 1.91 52.4% |
Match center
Full head-to-head historyMarsilio Dias - Portuguesa Desportos
Marsilio Dias
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals