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China. Cup. Round of 16
China. Cup. Round of 16
17 round 04.07.2026 09:35 UTC Match prediction
04.07.2026 09:35 UTC 17 round
Finished

China. Cup. Round of 16

Beijing Guoan - Shandong Taishan

Futbol
Beijing Guoan
Beijing Guoan
2 : 0
Finished
Shandong Taishan
Shandong Taishan
Match signals

Two independent model estimates. Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

🔒 «Formula lock»

1Beijing Guoan — 54%

The formula agrees with the market favourite in the moderate-odds zone — historically the most profitable slice (basketball/football/hockey). NOT a profit guarantee.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Beijing Guoan - Shandong Taishan July 4, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Beijing Guoan.

Line favourite market consensus: Beijing Guoan. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.71 / X 4.13 / 2 4.00
  • 1X2 market: Beijing Guoan 54.2% / X 22.5% / Shandong Taishan 23.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.7%
1 54.3%
X 22.5%
2 23.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Super League
League table
Beijing Guoan
#621 ptsGP 177-5-529:23
WWWLD
Shandong Taishan
#721 ptsGP 178-3-630:28
LWLDL
Best price across 13 books
1 1.79 Pinnacle
X 4.22 Pinnacle
2 4.07 Pinnacle

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Beijing Guoan
W-D-L 5-3-2 Scored 2.10 Conceded 1.60 xG 2.08 xGA 1.10 Corners 7.3
Shandong Taishan
W-D-L 5-2-3 Scored 2.21 Conceded 1.80 xG 1.85 xGA 1.30 Corners 4.3

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
Beijing Guoan
Rating 1628 xG 1.84 Win 51%
Shandong Taishan
Rating 1637 xG 1.26 Win 26%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

Form and head-to-head • Super League

Team stats

Beijing Guoan
LDWDWDLWWW
W 5 • D 3 • L 2 (10)
Goals average:2.2 : 1.7
7 place, 18 pts
Shandong Taishan
LDWWWLDLWW
W 5 • D 2 • L 3 (10)
Goals average:2.5 : 1.7
5 place, 21 pts
Head-to-head: 14 — Beijing Guoan 3, draws 6, Shandong Taishan 5 (goals 19:25)
  • Shandong Taishan — Beijing Guoan2026-03-14 2:1
  • Shandong Taishan — Beijing Guoan2025-08-31 6:0
  • Beijing Guoan — Shandong Taishan2025-04-19 6:1
  • Beijing Guoan — Shandong Taishan2024-06-30 2:0
  • Shandong Taishan — Beijing Guoan2024-03-09 0:0

Form, head-to-head and league position: 365scores. For reference.

Clubs and venues

Team reference

Beijing Guoan
  • Stadium Трудящихся (Beijing) · 66 161 seats
  • Founded in 1992
  • Coach: Брюно Женезьо
Shandong Taishan
  • Цзинаньский центр олимпийских видов спорта · 60 000 seats
  • Founded in 1993
  • Coach: Феликс Магат

Reference data on clubs and venues: Wikidata.

Rest and schedule

Team freshness

Beijing Guoan
Well rested
  • Rest days: 7
  • Matches in 7 days: 1 (in 14: 1)
Shandong Taishan
Well rested
  • Rest days: 7
  • Matches in 7 days: 1 (in 14: 1)

Rest and schedule density — from matches played in our database. For reference.

Match conditions

Match weather

Пасмурно

Temperature
37.5°
Feels like
38.2°
Wind
10.1 km/h (gusts 27.7)
Precipitation
0 mm/h
Humidity
29%
Cloud cover
85%

Weather forecast at the stadium at kickoff. For reference.

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Match center
Stadium Stadium Trudyaschikhsya
Start 04.07.2026 09:35 UTC
Match center

Beijing Guoan - Shandong Taishan

Итоговый протокол and результаты встречи Бэйцзин Гоань - Шаньдун Тайшань, 4 июля 2026. Обзор and статистика matches, точный счет. Чемпионат Китая по футболу (Суперлига) 2026, 17 round. Бэйцзин Гоань - Шаньдун Тайшань, кто победил, онлайн трансляция matches.

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.01 market consensus · line only
X 10.00 Fonbet · line only
1 1.04 Fonbet · line only
Double chance
12 1.03 Fonbet · line only
1X 1.02 Fonbet · line only
X2 8.50 Fonbet · line only
Handicap
2 -1 5.60 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 2.03 market consensus · line only
2 +1 1.64 market consensus · line only
2 0 9.50 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.70 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 1.40 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.04 Fonbet · line only
Yes 7.60 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
1.70 58.8% 1.73 57.8% 1.73 57.8% 1.72 58.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.70 58.8%
X 4.10 24.4% 4.26 23.5% 4.20 23.8% 4.05 24.7% 4.20 23.8% 4.10 24.4%
3.90 25.6% 4.26 23.5% 4.20 23.8% 3.90 25.6% 3.80 26.3% 3.90 25.6%

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 1.04 96.2% 2.80 35.7%
yes 7.60 13.2% 1.40 71.4%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.20 83.3% 1.20 83.3% 1.03 97.1%
1x 1.21 82.6% 1.20 83.3% 1.02 98.0%
x2 2.00 50.0% 2.08 48.1% 8.50 11.8%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.27 44.1%
X 2.52 39.7%
4.11 24.3%
Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1 Beijing Guoan
Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket
Team 2 Shandong Taishan
Beijing Guoan Team comparison Shandong Taishan
16 Games 16
6 Wins 8
5 Draws 3
5 Losses 5
27 Scored 30
23 Conceded 26
23 Points 27
0 Attacks 0
0 Dangerous attacks 0
0 Big chances 0
14.38 Shots on goal 14.27
5.25 Shots on target 4.25
19 0.06 Sendoffs 0.06 Голы Сержиньо Цао Юнцзин 1:0 74' Линь Лянмин Цао Юнцзин 2:0 81' Наказания Чжэн Чжэн 21' Бени Н'Кололо 36' Zhengyu Huang 63'

Бэйцзин Гоань Шаньдун Тайшань 16 Игры 16 6 Победы 8 5 Ничьи 3 5 Поражения 5 27 Забито 30 23 Пропущено 26 23 Очки 27 0 Атаки 0 0 Опасные атаки 0 0 Голевые моменты 0 14.38 Удары по воротам 14.27 5.25 Удары в створ 4.25 0 Штанги/перекладины 0 6.56 Угловые 4.19 2.5 Оффсайды 1.88 12.75 Фолы 14.19 61.69 % владения мячом 49.38 1.56 Warnings 2.19 0.06 Sendoffs 0.06 Голы Сержиньо Цао Юнцзин 1:0 74' Линь Лянмин Цао Юнцзин 2:0 81' Наказания Чжэн Чжэн 21' Бени Н'Кололо 36' Zhengyu Huang 63'