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Ecuador. Premier League
Ecuador. Premier League
10.07.2026 20:00 UTC Match prediction
10.07.2026 20:00 UTC
Finished

Ecuador. Premier League

Leones del Norte - Universidad Catolica Quito

Futbol
Leones del Norte
Leones del Norte
1 : 0
Finished
Universidad Catolica Quito
Universidad Catolica Quito

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Leones del Norte - Universidad Catolica Quito July 10, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Universidad Catolica Quito.

Line favourite market consensus: Universidad Catolica Quito. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.28 / X 3.24 / 2 2.06
  • 1X2 market: Leones del Norte 27.8% / X 28.1% / Universidad Catolica Quito 44.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 9.9%
1 27.7%
X 28.1%
2 44.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Liga Pro
League table
Leones del Norte
#923 ptsGP 186-5-719:19
WWDLW
Universidad Catolica Quito
#626 ptsGP 187-5-628:18
LLLWD
Best price across 14 books
1 3.55 Unibet
X 3.44 Pinnacle
2 2.16 Pinnacle

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Leones del Norte
W-D-L 4-1-5 Scored 1.50 Conceded 1.20 xG 0.93 xGA 1.33 Corners 4.1
Universidad Catolica Quito
W-D-L 4-1-5 Scored 1.70 Conceded 1.31 xG 1.62 xGA 1.04 Corners 5.3

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
Leones del Norte
Rating 1513 xG 0.96 Win 26%
Universidad Catolica Quito
Rating 1577 xG 1.40 Win 47%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 1/1
Confidence 62.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Leones del Norte 1 : 3 Universidad Catolica Quito

Score prediction: third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:4/7 ready · Still preparing:DeepSeek, Kimi, GLM 5.2

Google AI updated10.07.2026 20:49 UTC
1 27%
X 28%
2 45% ✓ favourite
Score1:2 Total goals: Over 2.5 Bet:X2 and Over 1.5.
ChatGPT updated10.07.2026 20:53 UTC
1 28%
X 31%
2 41% ✓ favourite
Score0:1 Total goals: Under 2.5 BTTS:No Bet:X2
Per AI data H2H: 0-0
Claude updated10.07.2026 20:54 UTC
1 27%
X 28%
2 45% ✓ favourite
Bet:2
Qwen updated10.07.2026 20:52 UTC
1 30%
X 30%
2 40% ✓ favourite
Score1:2 Total goals: Over 2.5 BTTS:Yes Bet:Over 2.5 + BTTS Yes
Per AI data H2H: 0-1

AI consensus:2

AI 1 X 2 Score Total goals BTTS Bet
Google AI 27% 28% 45% 1:2 Over 2.5 — X2 and Over 1.5.
ChatGPT 28% 31% 41% 0:1 Under 2.5 No X2
Claude 27% 28% 45% — — — 2
Qwen 30% 30% 40% 1:2 Over 2.5 Yes Over 2.5 + BTTS Yes

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Match center
Start 10.07.2026 20:00 UTC
🥊 Humans vs Machines
🤖 7 AI models Universidad Catolica Quito 43%
💹 Market Universidad Catolica Quito 4416%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Leones del Norte - Universidad Catolica Quito

Form 0/2 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:0
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.06 market consensus · line only
X 4.70 Fonbet · line only
1 1.03 Fonbet · line only
Double chance
12 1.14 Fonbet · line only
1X 1.01 Fonbet · line only
X2 7.40 Fonbet · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.07 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.60 Fonbet · line only
2 +1 4.50 Fonbet · line only
2 0 1.52 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 9.00 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 1.03 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.12 Fonbet · line only
Yes 5.00 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
3.45 29.0% 3.32 30.1% 3.30 30.3% 3.40 29.4% 3.30 30.3% 2.90 34.5%
X 3.35 29.9% 3.32 30.1% 3.25 30.8% 3.30 30.3% 3.25 30.8% 2.90 34.5%
2.08 48.1% 2.14 46.7% 2.10 47.6% 2.12 47.2% 2.00 50.0% 1.95 51.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 1.12 89.3% 1.85 54.1%
yes 5.00 20.0% 1.85 54.1%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.26 79.4% 1.30 76.9% 1.14 87.7%
1x 1.62 61.7% 1.69 59.2% 1.01 99.0%
x2 1.26 79.4% 1.30 76.9% 7.40 13.5%

Exact Score

Outcome 10Bet
0_0 8.50 11.8%
0_1 6.25 16.0%
0_2 8.50 11.8%
0_3 15.00 6.7%
0_4 34.00 2.9%
0_5 91.00 1.1%
1_0 8.50 11.8%
1_1 5.50 18.2%
1_2 7.00 14.3%
1_3 13.00 7.7%
1_4 31.00 3.2%
1_5 76.00 1.3%
2_0 15.00 6.7%
2_1 9.50 10.5%
2_2 12.00 8.3%
2_3 21.00 4.8%
2_4 51.00 2.0%
2_5 101.00 1.0%
Match center
Universidad Catolica Quito
L L
05.07 19:30 UTC Ecuador: Liga Pro Standings
Universidad Catolica Quito 2:3 Mushuk RunaMushuk Runa
31.05 21:10 UTC Ecuador: Liga Pro Standings
Universidad Catolica Quito 0:1 EmelekEmelek
0 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
1.0 Scored
2.0 Conceded
0 Points