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Primera División
Primera División Peru
03.04.2026 20:00 UTC Match prediction
03.04.2026 20:00 UTC
Finished

Primera División

Peru

Alianza Atletico - Atletico Grau

Peru Football
Stadium Estadio Campeones del 36
Alianza Atletico
Alianza Atletico
2 : 2
Finished
Atletico Grau
Atletico Grau

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Alianza Atletico - Atletico Grau April 3, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Alianza Atletico.

Line favourite market consensus: Alianza Atletico. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.01 / X 3.04 / 2 3.88
  • 1X2 market: Alianza Atletico 45.9% / X 30.4% / Atletico Grau 23.8%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 63.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 8.4%
1 45.9%
X 30.3%
2 23.8%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.6%
Over 2.5 36.6%
Under 2.5 63.4%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 03.04.2026 20:00 UTC
Match center

Alianza Atletico - Atletico Grau

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

2/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.88 market consensus · line only
X 3.04 market consensus · line only
1 2.01 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.74 market consensus · line only
12 1.33 market consensus · line only
1X 1.22 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.83 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.34 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.74 market consensus · line only
2 +1 9.10 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.56 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.48 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.60 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.20 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
2.05 48.8% 2.06 48.5% 2.02 49.5% 1.95 51.3% 2.05 48.8% 1.95 51.3%
X 3.00 33.3% 3.00 33.3% 3.04 32.9% 3.20 31.3% 2.95 33.9% 3.00 33.3%
4.00 25.0% 3.55 28.2% 4.01 24.9% 3.80 26.3% 3.80 26.3% 3.75 26.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Marathonbet Unibet William Hill
no 1.67 59.9% 1.57 63.7% 1.60 62.5% 1.53 65.4% 1.60 62.5% 1.58 63.3% 1.66 60.2% 1.62 61.7%
yes 2.05 48.8% 2.37 42.2% 2.20 45.5% 2.38 42.0% 2.22 45.1% 2.20 45.5% 2.06 48.5% 2.15 46.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet
draw_away 1.67 59.9% 1.73 57.8% 1.80 55.6% 1.75 57.1% 1.73 57.8% 1.73 57.8%
home_away 1.30 76.9% 1.34 74.6% 1.36 73.5% 1.34 74.6% 1.30 76.9% 1.34 74.6%
home_draw 1.20 83.3% 1.21 82.6% 1.25 80.0% 1.26 79.4% 1.20 83.3% 1.21 82.6%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.09 91.7% — 1.06 94.3%
Over 0.75 — — 1.08 92.6%
Over 1.0 — — 1.11 90.1%
Over 1.25 — — 1.30 76.9%
Over 1.5 1.44 69.4% — 1.48 67.6%
Over 1.75 — — 1.64 61.0%
Over 2.0 — 2.03 49.3% —
Over 2.5 2.30 43.5% — —
Over 3.5 4.33 23.1% — —
Over 4.5 8.50 11.8% — —
Under 0.5 7.00 14.3% — —
Under 1.5 2.70 37.0% — —
Under 2.0 — 1.79 55.9% —
Under 2.5 1.60 62.5% — —
Under 3.5 1.20 83.3% — —
Under 4.5 1.06 94.3% — —