UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying round. First leg

11 round 04.07.2026 11:00 UTC Match prediction

04.07.2026 11:00 UTC 11 round

Finished

UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying round. First leg

Degerfors - Malmo FF

Futbol

Degerfors

0 : 1

Finished

Malmo FF

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Degerfors - Malmo FF July 4, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Malmo FF.

Line favourite market consensus: Malmo FF. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.23 / X 3.36 / 2 2.13
1X2 market: Degerfors 28.8% / X 27.7% / Malmo FF 43.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.7%

1 28.8%

X 27.6%

2 43.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Allsvenskan

League table

Degerfors

#1310 ptsGP 112-4-512:17

LDLDL

Malmo FF

#616 ptsGP 115-1-521:20

WWLLL

Form over 10 matches (SStats)

Degerfors

W-D-L 2-4-4 Scored 1.20 Conceded 1.60 xG 1.13 xGA 1.35 Corners 4.3

Malmo FF

W-D-L 4-1-5 Scored 2.00 Conceded 2.01 xG 1.53 xGA 1.30 Corners 4.7

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)

Degerfors

Rating 1466 xG 0.99 Win 25%

Malmo FF

Rating 1565 xG 1.50 Win 49%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

Form and head-to-head • Allsvenskan

Team stats

Degerfors

WLWDDLDLDW

W 3 • D 4 • L 3 (10)

Goals average:1.5 : 1.5

12 place, 10 pts

Malmo FF

WWLWLLLLWD

W 4 • D 1 • L 5 (10)

Goals average:2.1 : 2.1

9 place, 13 pts

Head-to-head: 10 — Degerfors 0, draws 2, Malmo FF 8 (goals 8:29)

Malmö FF — Degerfors IF2025-08-31 1:1
Degerfors IF — Malmö FF2025-05-11 1:4
Degerfors IF — Malmö FF2023-09-23 1:2
Malmö FF — Degerfors IF2023-06-05 5:0
Malmö FF — Degerfors IF2023-03-05 2:1

Form, head-to-head and league position: 365scores. For reference.

Clubs and venues

Team reference

Degerfors

Stora Valla (Degerfors) · 12 500 seats
Founded in 1907
Coach: William Lundin

Malmo FF

Shvedbank (Malme) · 22 500 seats
Founded in 1910

Reference data on clubs and venues: Wikidata.

Independent Elo rating

clubelo prediction

Degerfors

1272Elo

Malmo FF

1445Elo

Stronger by Elo: Malmo FF (gap 173)

22%

27%

51%

Independent clubelo model prediction: 1 22% · X 27% · 2 51%

Elo rating and model prediction: clubelo.com. Independent estimate, for reference.

Rest and schedule

Team freshness

Degerfors

Well rested

Rest days: 8
Matches in 7 days: 0 (in 14: 1)

Malmo FF

Well rested

Rest days: 8
Matches in 7 days: 0 (in 14: 1)

Rest and schedule density — from matches played in our database. For reference.

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Match center

Stadium Stora Valla

Start 04.07.2026 11:00 UTC

Match center

Degerfors - Malmo FF

Itogovyy protokol and rezultaty vstrechi Degerfors - Malme, 4 iyulya 2026. Highlights and statistika matches, tochnyy schet. Championship Shvetsii po futbolu (Allsvenskan) 2026, 11 round. Degerfors - Malme, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matches.

Form 1/0 recent games

H2H 0 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.07 Fonbet · line only

X 7.00 Fonbet · line only

1 3.24 market consensus · line only

Double chance

12 1.06 Fonbet · line only

1X 6.50 Fonbet · line only

X2 1.02 Fonbet · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 2.07 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.05 Fonbet · line only

2 +1 1.90 Fonbet · line only

2 0 1.01 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.82 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 1.95 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.09 Fonbet · line only

Yes 5.80 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor
	3.10 32.3%	3.34 29.9%	3.30 30.3%	3.25 30.8%	3.10 32.3%	3.13 32.0%
X	3.40 29.4%	3.34 29.9%	3.40 29.4%	3.35 29.9%	3.50 28.6%	3.40 29.4%
	2.20 45.5%	2.13 47.0%	2.15 46.5%	2.15 46.5%	2.10 47.6%	2.10 47.6%

Both teams to score

Outcome	Fonbet	Leon
no	1.09 91.7%	2.11 47.4%
yes	5.80 17.2%	1.65 60.6%

Double chance

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet
12	1.29 77.5%	1.30 76.9%	1.06 94.3%
1x	1.62 61.7%	1.64 61.0%	6.50 15.4%
x2	1.29 77.5%	1.30 76.9%	1.02 98.0%

First Half Winner

Outcome	Leon
	3.65 27.4%
X	2.25 44.4%
	2.62 38.2%

Match center

Degerfors

31.05 10:00 UTC Sweden: Premier League Standings

Degerfors 2:2 Brommapoykarna

0 Wins

1 Draws

0 Losses

2.0 Scored

2.0 Conceded

1 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyDegerfors - Malmo FF

Degerfors

0 matches total

Malmo FF

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 Degerfors

Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 Malmo FF

10 Games 10

2 Wins 4

4 Draws 1

4 Losses 5

12 Scored 20

16 Conceded 20

10 Points 13

0 Attacks 0

0 Dangerous attacks 0

0 Big chances 0

11.17 Shots on goal 14.43

2.9 Shots on target 4.9

rs 16 round Goly Erik Botkheym Kenan Busuladzhich 0:1 52' Nakazaniya Kenan Busuladzhich 22' Otto Rosengren 40' Olle Leonardsson 56'

Degerfors Malme 10 Games 10 2 Wins 4 Draws 1 4 Losses 5 12 Scored 20 16 Conceded 20 10 Points 13 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 11.17 Shots on goal 14.43 2.9 Udary v stvor 4.9 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 3.8 Uglovye 4.7 1.2 Offsaydy 1 12.3 Foly 12.8 44.4 % vladeniya myachom 53.3 2 Warnings 1.9 0 Sendoffs 0 Sleduyuschiy match 09.08.2026 Sweden — Allsvenskan — 2026 Malme –:– Degerfors 16 round Goly Erik Botkheym Kenan Busuladzhich 0:1 52' Nakazaniya Kenan Busuladzhich 22' Otto Rosengren 40' Olle Leonardsson 56'