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Uruguay. Premier League
Uruguay. Premier League
Промежуточный турнир. Группа B. 5-й тур 11.07.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction
11.07.2026 19:00 UTC Промежуточный турнир. Группа B. 5-й тур
Finished

Uruguay. Premier League

Montevideo Wanderers - Atletico Progreso

Futbol
Montevideo Wanderers
Montevideo Wanderers
2 : 0
Finished
Atletico Progreso
Atletico Progreso

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Montevideo Wanderers - Atletico Progreso 11 июля 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Montevideo Wanderers.

Line favourite market consensus: Montevideo Wanderers. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.00 / X 3.18 / 2 3.63
  • 1X2 market: Montevideo Wanderers 45.8% / X 28.9% / Atletico Progreso 25.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 9.0%
1 45.9%
X 28.9%
2 25.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Primera División - Apertura
League table
Montevideo Wanderers
#829 ptsGP 208-5-724:24
WDWDD
Atletico Progreso
#1513 ptsGP 203-4-1316:32
LLWLL
Best price across 14 books
1 2.05 Superbet
X 3.40 Bet365
2 3.85 Pinnacle

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Montevideo Wanderers
W-D-L 3-3-4 Scored 1.20 Conceded 1.29 xG 1.01 xGA 1.29
Atletico Progreso
W-D-L 2-0-8 Scored 0.70 Conceded 1.50 xG 0.95 xGA 1.41

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
Montevideo Wanderers
Rating 1523
Atletico Progreso
Rating 1392

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

AI

Model consensus

Лидер исходов AI: П1

Main outcome П1
Agreement 1/1
Confidence 62.0%

Модели дают единый сигнал. Такие матчи мы помечаем как более сильные.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Montevideo Wanderers 2 : 1 Atletico Progreso
12.03
X3.30
23.69

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:3/7 ready · Still preparing:DeepSeek, Qwen, Kimi, GLM 5.2

Google AI updated11.07.2026 20:45 UTC
1 46% ✓ favourite
X 29%
2 25%
Score1:0 Total goals: ТМ 2.5 Bet:Монтевидео Уондерерс» не проигрывает 4 матча подряд и надежно действует в защите.
ChatGPT updated11.07.2026 21:11 UTC
1 46% ✓ favourite
X 29%
2 25%
Bet:1
Claude updated11.07.2026 19:24 UTC
1 44% ✓ favourite
X 30%
2 26%
Score1:0 Total goals: ТМ 2.5 BTTS:Нет Bet:Двойной шанс 1X (хозяева не проиграют)

AI consensus:1

AI 1 X 2 Score Total goals BTTS Bet
Google AI 46% 29% 25% 1:0 ТМ 2.5 — Монтевидео Уондерерс» не проигрывает 4 матча подряд и надежно действует в защите.
ChatGPT 46% 29% 25% — — — 1
Claude 44% 30% 26% 1:0 ТМ 2.5 Нет Двойной шанс 1X (хозяева не проиграют)

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Match center
Start 11.07.2026 19:00 UTC
🥊 Humans vs Machines
🤖 7 AI models Montevideo Wanderers 45%
💹 Market Montevideo Wanderers 4578%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Montevideo Wanderers - Atletico Progreso

Итоговый протокол и результаты встречи Монтевидео Уондерерс - Прогресо, 12 июля 2026. Обзор и статистика матча, точный счет. Уругвай — Примера 2026, Промежуточный турнир. Группа B. 5-й тур. Монтевидео Уондерерс - Прогресо, кто победил, онлайн трансляция матча.

Form 1/1 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 2:0
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.63 market consensus · line only
X 3.18 market consensus · line only
1 2.00 market consensus · line only
Double chance
12 1.31 market consensus · line only
1X 1.24 market consensus · line only
X2 1.73 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 0 2.63 market consensus · line only
1 0 1.44 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 8.00 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 1.04 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.08 Fonbet · line only
Yes 5.90 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
П1 1.98 50.5% 2.02 49.5% 2.00 50.0% 2.00 50.0% 2.00 50.0% 1.95 51.3%
Х 3.15 31.8% 3.30 30.3% 3.30 30.3% 3.05 32.8% 3.10 32.3% 3.20 31.3%
П2 3.70 27.0% 3.70 27.0% 3.50 28.6% 3.65 27.4% 3.50 28.6% 3.70 27.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 1.08 92.6% 1.79 55.9%
yes 5.90 17.0% 1.92 52.1%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
12 1.29 77.5% 1.32 75.8%
1x 1.22 82.0% 1.25 80.0%
x2 1.69 59.2% 1.76 56.8%

Exact Score

Outcome 10Bet
0_0 7.50 13.3%
0_1 8.00 12.5%
0_2 15.00 6.7%
0_3 41.00 2.4%
0_4 101.00 1.0%
1_0 5.50 18.2%
1_1 5.50 18.2%
1_2 10.00 10.0%
1_3 29.00 3.5%
1_4 76.00 1.3%
2_0 7.50 13.3%
2_1 7.00 14.3%
2_2 13.00 7.7%
2_3 34.00 2.9%
2_4 91.00 1.1%
3_0 15.00 6.7%
3_1 13.00 7.7%
3_2 26.00 3.9%
Match center
Montevideo Wanderers
W
31.05 16:00 UTC Uruguay: Liga AUF Uruguaya - Torneo Intermedio Standings
Montevideo Wanderers 5:2 Khuventud
1 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
5.0 Scored
2.0 Conceded
3 Points
Atletico Progreso
L
07.06 11:00 UTC Uruguay: Liga AUF Uruguaya - Torneo Intermedio Standings
Atletico Progreso 1:2 Albion
0 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
1.0 Scored
2.0 Conceded
0 Points
Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1 Montevideo Wanderers
Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket
Team 2 Atletico Progreso
Montevideo Wanderers Team comparison Atletico Progreso
19 Игры 19
7 Победы 3
5 Ничьи 4
7 Поражения 12
22 Забито 16
24 Пропущено 30
26 Очки 13
0 Атаки 0
0 Опасные атаки 0
0 Голевые моменты 0
0 Удары по воротам 0
0 Удары в створ 0
3.21 0.21 Удаления 0.32 Голы Joaquin Zeballos 1:0 11' Luciano Cosentino 2:0 47' Наказания Gonzalo Silva 29' Jonathan dos Santos 44' Nicolás Queiroz Martínez 44' Rodrigo Rivero 86' Leandro Zazpe 90' Гонсало Фрейтас 90' Статистика Монтевидео Уондерерс Прогресо 4 Предупреждения 2 0 Удаления 0
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params: {
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Монтевидео Уондерерс Прогресо 19 Игры 19 7 Победы 3 5 Ничьи 4 7 Поражения 12 22 Забито 16 24 Пропущено 30 26 Очки 13 0 Атаки 0 0 Опасные атаки 0 0 Голевые моменты 0 0 Удары по воротам 0 0 Удары в створ 0 0 Штанги/перекладины 0 0 Угловые 0 0 Оффсайды 0 0 Фолы 0 0 % владения мячом 0 3.11 Предупреждения 3.21 0.21 Удаления 0.32 Голы Joaquin Zeballos 1:0 11' Luciano Cosentino 2:0 47' Наказания Gonzalo Silva 29' Jonathan dos Santos 44' Nicolás Queiroz Martínez 44' Rodrigo Rivero 86' Leandro Zazpe 90' Гонсало Фрейтас 90' Статистика Монтевидео Уондерерс Прогресо 4 Предупреждения 2 0 Удаления 0 Результаты голосования Исход в основное время 50% 25% 25% Двойной шанс 38% 37% 25% CHAMP({ name: 'commentsWidget', params: { appId: CHAMP.comments['appId'], xid: 'match_1318396' } }); CHAMP('tournamentTabs'); CHAMP('swipingTabs'); CHAMP('match'); CHAMP('stickyVertical'); Уругвай — Примера Турнирная таблица