Match center
Start
04.07.2026 06:30 UTC
04.07.2026 06:30 UTC
Finished
UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying round. First leg
Lugano 🇨🇭 - Rapperswil-Jona 🇨🇭
L
Lugano 🇨🇭
1
:
1
Finished
R
Rapperswil-Jona 🇨🇭
Match signals
Two independent model estimates. Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
🔒 «Formula lock»
1Lugano 🇨🇭 — 70%
The formula agrees with the market favourite in the moderate-odds zone — historically the most profitable slice (basketball/football/hockey). NOT a profit guarantee.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Lugano 🇨🇭 - Rapperswil-Jona 🇨🇭 July 4, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Lugano 🇨🇭.
Line favourite market consensus: Lugano 🇨🇭. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.39 / X 4.93 / 2 5.76
- 1X2 market: Lugano 🇨🇭 65.4% / X 18.5% / Rapperswil-Jona 🇨🇭 16.1%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 9.6%
1
65.6%
X
18.5%
2
15.8%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Statistics and model
Friendlies Clubs
Best price
across 12 books
1
1.41
Unibet
X
6.00
1xBet
2
7.50
Betfair
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Lugano 🇨🇭
W-D-L 3-2-5
Scored 1.69
Conceded 2.04
xG 1.79
xGA 1.30
Rapperswil-Jona 🇨🇭
W-D-L 5-0-5
Scored 2.06
Conceded 2.03
xG 2.00
xGA 1.66
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Model form (Glicko)
Lugano 🇨🇭
Rating 1463
Rapperswil-Jona 🇨🇭
Rating 1463
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
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Match center
Lugano 🇨🇭 - Rapperswil-Jona 🇨🇭
Form
0/1
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
0
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
pending
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
5.79
market consensus · line only
X
1.32
Fonbet · line only
1
4.05
Fonbet · line only
Double chance
12
3.10
Fonbet · line only
1X
1.03
Fonbet · line only
X2
1.20
Fonbet · line only
Handicap
2 -1
1.04
Fonbet · line only
2 +1
5.50
Fonbet · line only
2 0
4.40
Fonbet · line only
1 -1
7.70
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5
3.10
Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5
1.30
Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No
2.45
Fonbet · line only
Yes
1.50
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.44 69.4% | 1.37 73.0% | 1.38 72.5% | 1.42 70.4% | 1.30 76.9% | 1.36 73.5% | |
| X | 4.60 21.7% | 5.50 18.2% | 4.75 21.1% | 4.65 21.5% | 5.00 20.0% | 4.80 20.8% |
| 5.60 17.9% | 6.42 15.6% | 5.50 18.2% | 5.30 18.9% | 6.50 15.4% | 6.50 15.4% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| no | 2.45 40.8% | 2.18 45.9% |
| yes | 1.50 66.7% | 1.63 61.4% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.03 97.1% | 1.10 90.9% | 3.10 32.3% |
| 1x | 1.03 97.1% | 1.10 90.9% | 1.03 97.1% |
| x2 | 2.70 37.0% | 3.10 32.3% | 1.20 83.3% |
First Half Winner
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 1.71 58.5% | |
| X | 2.94 34.0% |
| 5.70 17.5% |
Match center
Rapperswil-Jona 🇨🇭
L
Rapperswil-Jona 🇨🇭
0:3
Bazel 🇨🇭
0
Wins
0
Draws
1
Losses
0.0
Scored
3.0
Conceded
0
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyLugano 🇨🇭 - Rapperswil-Jona 🇨🇭
Lugano 🇨🇭
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals