World Cup - Playoff

round of 32 30.06.2026 23:00 UTC Match prediction

30.06.2026 23:00 UTC round of 32

Finished

World Cup - Playoff

Mexico - Ecuador

Futbol

Mexico

2 : 0

Finished

Ecuador

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Mexico (odds2.19) Score 1:0 (odds5.72) confidence 50% ✓ outcome correct

• Model backs Mexico: probability 50% vs 47% on the line (odds 2.13)
• edge over the line +3 pp — value pick
• Expected score 1:0 (odds 5.72).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Mexico - Ecuador June 30, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Mexico.

Line favourite market consensus: Mexico. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.24 / X 2.94 / 2 3.85
1X2 market: Mexico 42.7% / X 32.5% / Ecuador 24.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.6%

1 42.7%

X 32.5%

2 24.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

World Cup

League table

Mexico

#19 ptsGP 33-0-06:0

WWWW

Ecuador

#44 ptsGP 31-1-12:2

LWDL

Best price across 12 books

1 2.30 1xBet

X 3.10 Dafabet

2 4.20 Betano

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)

Mexico

W-D-L 6-1-3 Scored 1.75 Conceded 0.25 xG 1.55 xGA 0.91 Corners 2.1

Ecuador

W-D-L 3-3-3 Scored 0.76 Conceded 0.73 xG 1.54 xGA 1.14 Corners 5.5

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)

Mexico

Rating 1678

Ecuador

Rating 1542

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

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Match center

Stadium Atsteka (Mekhiko, Mexico), 80 824 zritelya (100% pri vmestimosti 81 070)

Referee Slavko Vinchich (Maribor, Slovenia)

Start 30.06.2026 23:00 UTC

Match center

Mexico - Ecuador

Itogovyy protokol and rezultaty vstrechi Mexico - Ecuador, 1 iyulya 2026. Highlights and statistika matches, tochnyy schet. World Cup po futbolu 2026, round of 32. Mexico - Ecuador, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matches.

H2H 0 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 3.85 market consensus · line only

X 2.94 market consensus · line only

1 1.02 Fonbet · line only

Double chance

12 1.02 Fonbet · line only

1X 1.04 Fonbet · line only

Handicap

2 -1 2.35 Fonbet · line only

2 +1 8.50 Fonbet · line only

2 0 7.70 Fonbet · line only

1 -1 1.60 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 2.5 2.89 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 1.41 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.38 Fonbet · line only

Yes 2.90 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor
	2.18 45.9%	2.28 43.9%	2.25 44.4%	2.27 44.1%	2.25 44.4%	2.25 44.4%
X	2.88 34.7%	3.09 32.4%	2.90 34.5%	3.00 33.3%	2.80 35.7%	2.80 35.7%
	3.80 26.3%	3.94 25.4%	3.75 26.7%	4.00 25.0%	3.90 25.6%	3.80 26.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome	Fonbet
no	1.38 72.5%
yes	2.90 34.5%

Double chance

Outcome	Fonbet
12	1.02 98.0%
1x	1.04 96.2%
x2	13.00 7.7%

Handicap

Outcome	Fonbet
	1.07 93.5%
	1.03 97.1%
	1.60 62.5%
	1.13 88.5%
	1.40 71.4%
	5.80 17.2%
	7.30 13.7%
	1.04 96.2%
	8.50 11.8%
	8.50 11.8%
	2.35 42.6%
	5.90 17.0%
	3.00 33.3%
	1.14 87.7%
	1.05 95.2%
	7.70 13.0%

Match center

Full head-to-head historyMexico - Ecuador

Mexico

0 matches total

Ecuador

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 Mexico

Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 Ecuador

3 Games 3

3 Wins 1

0 Draws 1

0 Losses 1

6 Scored 2

0 Conceded 2

9 Points 4

93.67 Attacks 119.67

30 Dangerous attacks 60.67

0 Big chances 5

11.67 Shots on goal 15.33

4.33 Shots on target 6.33

leniya 0 Goly Khulian Kinones Roberto Alvarado 1:0 22' Raul Khimenes Khulian Kinones 2:0 31' Nakazaniya Alan Franko 45+1' Kendri Paes 90+3' Pero Inkape 90+5' Moyses Kaysedo 90+9'

Mexico Ecuador 3 Games 3 Wins 1 0 Draws 1 0 Losses 1 6 Scored 2 0 Conceded 2 9 Points 4 93.67 Attacks 119.67 30 Dangerous attacks 60.67 0 Big chances 5 11.67 Shots on goal 15.33 4.33 Udary v stvor 6.33 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 1.33 Uglovye 5.67 1.33 Offsaydy 0.33 11.33 Foly 11.67 50.33 % vladeniya myachom 57 0.67 Warnings 1.67 0.33 Sendoffs 0 Goly Khulian Kinones Roberto Alvarado 1:0 22' Raul Khimenes Khulian Kinones 2:0 31' Nakazaniya Alan Franko 45+1' Kendri Paes 90+3' Pero Inkape 90+5' Moyses Kaysedo 90+9'