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ATP - Singles: Umag (Croatia), clay
ATP - Singles: Umag (Croatia), clay
15.07.2026 09:00 MSK Match prediction

Karreno-Busta P. 🇪🇸 - Ugo Carabelli C

Tennis ATP - Singles: Umag (Croatia), clay
ATP - Singles: Umag (Croatia), clay clay 15.07.2026 09:00 MSK Finished
15.07.2026 09:00 MSK Finished
Karreno-Busta P. 🇪🇸
Karreno-Busta P. 🇪🇸
W
Ugo Carabelli C
Ugo Carabelli C
W
1:2
Odds
P1 1.60 59.6% BetBoom
P2 2.36 40.4% BetBoom
Coverage: clay
Preview Statistics Broadcast Comments

About the athletes

- Country -
- Rating -
- Age -
- Height (cm) -
- Weight (kg) -
- Hand -
- Seed -
clay Coverage clay
0 H2H 0
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Karreno-Busta P. 🇪🇸 — 59%

Pure model vs market (1 · Karreno-Busta P. 🇪🇸): model 53% · market 60% Δ −7 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Karreno-Busta P. 🇪🇸 ✓ Прогноз58.8%
market60%
2 · Ugo Carabelli C41.2%
market40%

Model estimate: win Karreno-Busta P. 🇪🇸 58.8%, win Ugo Carabelli C 41.2%. Model favourite — Karreno-Busta P. 🇪🇸.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Karreno-Busta P. 🇪🇸 (odds1.60) confidence 55% ✗ outcome missed

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Karreno-Busta P. 🇪🇸 - Ugo Carabelli C 15 июля 2026

Tennis math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Karreno-Busta P. 🇪🇸.

Line favourite market consensus: Karreno-Busta P. 🇪🇸. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (market consensus): 1 1.60 / 2 2.36
  • Glicko: Karreno-Busta P. 🇪🇸 58.8% / Ugo Carabelli C 41.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 4.9%
1 ✓ Прогноз 59.6%
2 40.4%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Match center
Start 15.07.2026 09:00 MSK
Coverage clay
Form 6 matches
Match center

Karreno-Busta P. 🇪🇸 - Ugo Carabelli C

В базе учтены недавние матчи обоих участников.

Form 1/1 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line Overview
More needed
H2H Championat, Flashscore
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Movement Line history
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 1:2
Events 0
Statistics 0
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Karreno-Busta P. 🇪🇸 59.4% 58.8% market and model agree
Ugo Carabelli C 40.6% 41.2%
1X2: 3 Bookies

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 58.8% / 41.2% probabilities
Rating 1,869 / 1,691 Karreno-Busta P. 🇪🇸 / Ugo Carabelli C
RD 201 / 193 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,468-2,271 / 1,305-2,077 strength interval
HFA: 0 HFA mu: 0.000 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: value не найден

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.33 market consensus · no value · model 41.2%
1 1.58 market consensus · no value · model 58.8%
Total
Over 22.5 1.92 market consensus · line only
Under 22.5 1.85 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Leon
П1 -2.5 1.89 52.9% 1.94 51.6% 1.87 53.5%
П2 +2.5 1.85 54.1% 1.86 53.8% 1.90 52.6%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Leon
ТБ 22.5 1.92 52.1% 1.92 52.1% 1.92 52.1%
ТМ 22.5 1.82 55.0% 1.88 53.2% 1.85 54.1%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Leon
П1 1.57 63.7% 1.60 62.5% 1.57 63.7%
П2 2.30 43.5% 2.34 42.7% 2.36 42.4%
Match center
Karreno-Busta P. 🇪🇸
W
14.07 15:00 МСК ATP - Singles: Umag (Croatia), clay
Karreno-Busta P. 🇪🇸 2:0 Dodig M. 🇭🇷
1 Wins
0 Losses
2.0 Sets won
0.0 Sets lost
100% Win percentage
Ugo Carabelli C
W
14.07 15:00 МСК ATP - Singles: Umag (Croatia), clay
Ugo Carabelli C 2:1 Topo M. 🇩🇪Topo M. 🇩🇪
1 Wins
0 Losses
2.0 Sets won
1.0 Sets lost
100% Win percentage