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ATP - Singles: Umag (Croatia), clay
ATP - Singles: Umag (Croatia), clay
14.07.2026 17:00 MSK Match prediction

Sesko Z. 🇸🇮 - Merida Aguilar D

Tennis ATP - Singles: Umag (Croatia), clay
ATP - Singles: Umag (Croatia), clay clay 14.07.2026 17:00 MSK Finished
14.07.2026 17:00 MSK Finished
Sesko Z. 🇸🇮
Sesko Z. 🇸🇮
Merida Aguilar D
Merida Aguilar D
0:2
Odds
P1 6.60 14.7% BetBoom
P2 1.14 85.3% BetBoom
Coverage: clay
Preview Statistics Broadcast Comments

About the athletes

- Country -
- Rating -
- Age -
- Height (cm) -
- Weight (kg) -
- Hand -
- Seed -
clay Coverage clay
0 H2H 0
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Merida Aguilar D — 81%

Pure model vs market (2 · Merida Aguilar D): model 48% · market 85% Δ −37 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Sesko Z. 🇸🇮19.1%
market15%
2 · Merida Aguilar D ✓ Прогноз80.9%
market85%

Model estimate: win Sesko Z. 🇸🇮 19.1%, win Merida Aguilar D 80.9%. Model favourite — Merida Aguilar D.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Merida Aguilar D (odds1.14) confidence 69% ✓ outcome correct

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Sesko Z. 🇸🇮 - Merida Aguilar D 14 июля 2026

Tennis math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Merida Aguilar D.

Line favourite Fonbet: Merida Aguilar D. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 6.50 / 2 1.11
  • Glicko: Sesko Z. 🇸🇮 19.1% / Merida Aguilar D 80.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 5.5%
1 14.6%
2 ✓ Прогноз 85.4%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Победитель П1 6.70 ↓ 6.10
Победитель П2 1.11 ↑ 1.12

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Team form

Sesko Z. 🇸🇮
8-2WWWWWWWWLL
scored 1.6conceded 0.5
Merida Aguilar D
5-5LWWLLLWWWL
scored 1.2conceded 1.3

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

Match center
Start 14.07.2026 17:00 MSK
Coverage clay
Form 5 matches
Match center

Sesko Z. 🇸🇮 - Merida Aguilar D

В базе учтены недавние матчи обоих участников.

Form 2/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line Movement Overview
More needed
H2H Championat, Flashscore
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 0:2
Events 0
Statistics 0
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Sesko Z. 🇸🇮 15.5% 19.1%
Merida Aguilar D 84.5% 80.9% market and model agree
1X2: 3 Bookies

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 19.1% / 80.9% probabilities
Rating 1,826 / 1,449 Sesko Z. 🇸🇮 / Merida Aguilar D
RD 286 / 175 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,254-2,398 / 1,100-1,798 strength interval
HFA: 0 HFA mu: 0.000 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: value не найден

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.11 Fonbet · no value · model 80.9%
1 6.50 Fonbet · no value · model 19.1%
Handicap
2 +0.5 1.10 Fonbet · line only
1 +0.5 5.90 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 17.5 1.40 Fonbet · line only
Over 18.5 1.57 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet Leon
П1 +0.5 5.90 17.0% —
П1 +1.5 5.10 19.6% —
П1 +2.5 4.40 22.7% —
П1 +3.5 3.35 29.9% —
П1 +4.5 2.55 39.2% —
П1 +5.5 1.87 53.5% 1.92 52.1%
П1 +6.5 1.50 66.7% —
П1 +7.5 1.20 83.3% —
П2 +0.5 1.10 90.9% —
П2 +1.5 1.13 88.5% —
П2 +2.5 1.17 85.5% —
П2 +3.5 1.28 78.1% —
П2 +4.5 1.45 69.0% —
П2 +5.5 1.88 53.2% —
П2 +6.5 2.40 41.7% —
П2 +7.5 3.95 25.3% —
П2 -5.5 — 1.86 53.8%

Total

Outcome Fonbet Leon
ТБ 17.5 1.40 71.4% —
ТБ 18.5 1.57 63.7% 1.77 56.5%
ТБ 19.5 1.90 52.6% 1.91 52.4%
ТБ 20.5 2.10 47.6% —
ТБ 21.5 2.40 41.7% —
ТБ 22.5 2.75 36.4% —
ТБ 23.5 3.05 32.8% —
ТБ 24.5 3.20 31.3% —
ТМ 17.5 2.75 36.4% —
ТМ 18.5 2.25 44.4% —
ТМ 19.5 1.90 52.6% —
ТМ 20.5 1.65 60.6% —
ТМ 21.5 1.50 66.7% —
ТМ 22.5 1.40 71.4% —
ТМ 23.5 1.33 75.2% —
ТМ 24.5 1.30 76.9% —

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Fonbet Leon
П1 6.60 15.2% 6.50 15.4% 5.40 18.5%
П2 1.09 91.7% 1.11 90.1% 1.14 87.7%
Match center
Sesko Z. 🇸🇮
W W
05.07 11:00 UTC+0 ЮНОШИ - ОДИНОЧНЫЙ РАЗРЯД: Уимблдон (Великобритания), трава
Sesko Z. 🇸🇮 2:0 Reddy V. (Сша)
23.05 08:00 UTC+0 ITF МУЖЧИНЫ - ОДИНОЧНЫЙ РАЗРЯД: M15 Litija (Словения), грунт
Sesko Z. 🇸🇮 1:0 La Vela G. (Ита)
2 Wins
0 Losses
1.5 Sets won
0.0 Sets lost
100% Win percentage
Merida Aguilar D
L L W L L
01.07 09:30 UTC+0 ATP - ОДИНОЧНЫЙ РАЗРЯД: Уимблдон (Великобритания), трава
Merida Aguilar D 1:3 Медведев Д. (Мир)Медведев Д. (Мир)
13.06 09:00 UTC+0 ATP - ОДИНОЧНЫЙ РАЗРЯД: Лондон (Великобритания) - квалификация, трава
Merida Aguilar D 0:2 Дамм M. (Сша)
05.06 14:30 UTC+0 ЧЕЛЛЕНДЖЕР МУЖЧИНЫ - ОДИНОЧНЫЙ РАЗРЯД: Perugia (Италия), грунт
Merida Aguilar D 2:0 Ямас Руис П. (Исп)Ямас Руис П. (Исп)
03.06 18:30 UTC+0 ЧЕЛЛЕНДЖЕР МУЖЧИНЫ - ОДИНОЧНЫЙ РАЗРЯД: Perugia (Италия), грунт
Merida Aguilar D 0:2 Броди Л. (Вел)Броди Л. (Вел)
25.05 14:25 UTC+0 ATP - ОДИНОЧНЫЙ РАЗРЯД: Открытый чемпионат Франции (Франция), грунт
Merida Aguilar D 0:3 Шелтон Б. (Сша)Шелтон Б. (Сша)
1 Wins
4 Losses
0.6 Sets won
2.0 Sets lost
20% Win percentage