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ATP - Singles: Umag (Croatia), clay
ATP - Singles: Umag (Croatia), clay
1-й круг 14.07.2026 15:00 MSK Match prediction

Topo M. 🇩🇪 - Ugo Carabelli C

Tennis ATP - Singles: Umag (Croatia), clay
ATP - Singles: Umag (Croatia), clay 1-й круг Грунт 14.07.2026 15:00 MSK Finished
14.07.2026 15:00 MSK 1-й круг Finished
Topo M. 🇩🇪
Topo M. 🇩🇪 Германия Seed 374
Ugo Carabelli C
Ugo Carabelli C Аргентина Seed 58
1:2 7:6 6:7 3:6
1 2 3 GP
Topo M. 🇩🇪 7 6 3 1
Ugo Carabelli C 6 7 6 2
1 2 3
Odds
P1 3.05 31.9% BetBoom
P2 1.43 68.1% BetBoom
Stadium: Стелла Марис. Первый корт Coverage: Грунт
Preview Statistics Broadcast Comments

About the athletes

Германия Country Аргентина
- Rating -
22 Age 27
188 Height (cm) 185
85 Weight (kg) 83
Right Hand Right
Q Seed 7
Грунт Coverage Грунт
0 H2H 0

Form over the last year

Topo M. 🇩🇪
0% 0 / 2
0% 0 / 2
Синтетика
no data
Грунт
0 из 1
Трава
no data
Хард
0 из 1
Ugo Carabelli C
43% 20 / 46
43% 20 / 46
Синтетика
no data
Грунт
15 из 26
Трава
0 из 1
Хард
5 из 19

Head-to-head history

Умаг
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Ugo Carabelli C — 67%

Pure model vs market (2 · Ugo Carabelli C): model 56% · market 68% Δ −12 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Topo M. 🇩🇪32.8%
market32%
2 · Ugo Carabelli C ✓ Прогноз67.2%
market68%

Model estimate: win Topo M. 🇩🇪 32.8%, win Ugo Carabelli C 67.2%. Model favourite — Ugo Carabelli C.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Ugo Carabelli C (odds1.43) confidence 59% ✓ outcome correct

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Topo M. 🇩🇪 - Ugo Carabelli C 14 июля 2026

Tennis math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Ugo Carabelli C.

Line favourite Fonbet: Ugo Carabelli C. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 3.00 / 2 1.40
  • Glicko: Topo M. 🇩🇪 32.8% / Ugo Carabelli C 67.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 4.8%
1 31.8%
2 ✓ Прогноз 68.2%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Победитель П1 3.60 ↓ 3.00
Победитель П2 1.30 ↑ 1.40

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

Лидер исходов AI: П1

Main outcome П1
Agreement 1/1
Confidence 62.0%

Модели дают единый сигнал. Такие матчи мы помечаем как более сильные.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Team form

Topo M. 🇩🇪
1-9LLLLLLLWLL
scored 0.5conceded 1.9
Ugo Carabelli C

no data

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:5/7 ready · Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT

Google AI updated14.07.2026 15:21 MSK
1 25%
2 75% ✓ favourite
Score0:2 Total games: ТМ 21.5 Bet:Точный счет по сетам 0:2 в пользу Уго Карабелли
Per AI data Form:W,W,L,W,L / L,L,W,L,W H2H: 0:0
Claude updated14.07.2026 16:02 MSK
1 30%
2 70% ✓ favourite
Score0:2 Total games: ТМ 22.5 Bet:П2 (победа Уго Карабелли) за 1.43
Qwen updated14.07.2026 16:00 MSK
1 35%
2 65% ✓ favourite
Score2:1 Total games: ТБ 22.5 Bet:ТБ 22.5 гейма
Kimi updated14.07.2026 16:04 MSK
1 22%
2 78% ✓ favourite
Score0:2 Total games: ТМ 21.5 Bet:П2 (победа Карабелли)
Per AI data Form:W vs Tiffon (RET Umag Q), W vs Neumayer 7-6(7) 7-5 (Umag Q), L vs Giustino 2-6 6-2 6-4 (Bad Rappenau), L vs Gaston 1-6 2 / L vs Shevchenko 3-6 6-4 6-7(5) (Umag), W vs Monfils 6-3 6-4 (Madrid), L vs Cobolli 7-6(9) 1-6 4-6 (Madrid), W vs Khachan
GLM 5.2 updated14.07.2026 16:05 MSK
1 24%
2 76% ✓ favourite
Score0:2 Total games: ТМ 22.5 Bet:П2 с форой (-1.5) по сетам
Per AI data Form:1W 4L / 4W 1L

AI consensus:2

AI 1 2 Score Total games Bet
Google AI 25% 75% 0:2 ТМ 21.5 Точный счет по сетам 0:2 в пользу Уго Карабелли
Claude 30% 70% 0:2 ТМ 22.5 П2 (победа Уго Карабелли) за 1.43
Qwen 35% 65% 2:1 ТБ 22.5 ТБ 22.5 гейма
Kimi 22% 78% 0:2 ТМ 21.5 П2 (победа Карабелли)
GLM 5.2 24% 76% 0:2 ТМ 22.5 П2 с форой (-1.5) по сетам
Match center
Stadium Стелла Марис. Первый корт
Start 14.07.2026 15:00 MSK
Stage 1-й круг
Coverage Грунт
Form 9 matches
H2H 3
Match center

Topo M. 🇩🇪 - Ugo Carabelli C

Онлайн трансляция теннисного матча Марко Топо - Камило Уго Карабельи. Умаг. Вся информация: статистика, новости, интервью, фото

Form 1/2 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Championat match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Donor check 1 block. officials
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Tournament Lineup / squad Line
More needed
Referees source needed
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 1:2
Events 0
Statistics 0
Set Topo M. 🇩🇪 Ugo Carabelli C Result
Set 0 7 6 7:6
Set 1 6 7 6:7
Set 2 3 6 3:6
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Topo M. 🇩🇪 31.5% 32.8%
Ugo Carabelli C 68.5% 67.2% market and model agree
1X2: 4 Bookies

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 32.8% / 67.2% probabilities
Rating 1,281 / 1,693 Topo M. 🇩🇪 / Ugo Carabelli C
RD 195 / 202 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 892-1,671 / 1,288-2,098 strength interval
HFA: 0 HFA mu: 0.000 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: value не найден

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.40 Fonbet · no value · model 67.2%
1 3.00 Fonbet · no value · model 32.8%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.33 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 1.40 Fonbet · line only
1 -0.5 3.05 Fonbet · line only
1 +0.5 2.80 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 19.5 1.43 Fonbet · line only
Over 20.5 1.60 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
П1 +3.5 1.95 51.3% 1.90 52.6% —
П1 +4.5 1.72 58.1% 1.75 57.1% —
П1 -0.5 — — 3.05 32.8%
П1 -1.5 — — 3.30 30.3%
П2 +0.5 — — 1.40 71.4%
П2 +1.5 — — 1.45 69.0%
П2 +2.5 — — 1.57 63.7%
П2 +3.5 — — 1.83 54.6%
П2 +4.5 — — 2.25 44.4%
П2 +5.5 — — 3.05 32.8%
П2 -0.5 — — 1.33 75.2%
П2 -1.5 — — 1.28 78.1%
П2 -3.5 1.80 55.6% 1.90 52.6% —
П2 -4.5 2.05 48.8% 2.08 48.1% —

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
ТБ 19.5 — — 1.43 69.9%
ТБ 20.5 — — 1.60 62.5%
ТБ 21.5 1.80 55.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.82 55.0%
ТБ 22.5 — — 2.02 49.5%
ТБ 23.5 — — 2.25 44.4%
ТБ 24.5 — — 2.35 42.6%
ТБ 25.5 — — 2.60 38.5%
ТБ 26.5 — — 2.95 33.9%
ТМ 19.5 — — 2.60 38.5%
ТМ 20.5 — — 2.20 45.5%
ТМ 21.5 1.95 51.3% 1.95 51.3% 2.00 50.0%
ТМ 22.5 — — 1.70 58.8%
ТМ 23.5 — — 1.57 63.7%
ТМ 24.5 — — 1.52 65.8%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Leon
П1 3.00 33.3% 2.85 35.1% 3.00 33.3% 3.05 32.8%
П2 1.36 73.5% 1.43 69.9% 1.40 71.4% 1.37 73.0%
Match center
Topo M. 🇩🇪
D
13.07.2026 Championat
Topo M. 🇩🇪 8 В. Вит Коприва (Чехия) 0 1 3 — Д. Дино Прижмич (Хорватия) 2 6 6 · 1-й круг
0 Wins
0 Losses
- Sets won
- Sets lost
0% Win percentage
Ugo Carabelli C
D D
13.07.2026 Championat
LD К. Кириян Жаке (Франция) 0 2 3 — М. Марко Трунгеллити (Аргентина) 2 6 6 · 1-й круг Ugo Carabelli C
13.07.2026 Championat
Д. Душан Лайович (Сербия) 1 6 5 4 — Л. Люка Ван Аш Ugo Carabelli C
0 Wins
0 Losses
- Sets won
- Sets lost
0% Win percentage