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ITF Men - Singles: M15 Castelo Branco (Portugal), hard
ITF Men - Singles: M15 Castelo Branco (Portugal), hard
15.07.2026 11:00 MSK Match prediction

Da Rosa Castro G - Alam P. 🇬🇧

Tennis ITF Men - Singles: M15 Castelo Branco (Portugal), hard
ITF Men - Singles: M15 Castelo Branco (Portugal), hard hard 15.07.2026 11:00 MSK Finished
15.07.2026 11:00 MSK Finished
D
Da Rosa Castro G
A
Alam P. 🇬🇧
2:0
Odds
P1 2.37 40.6% BetBoom
P2 1.62 59.4% BetBoom
Coverage: hard
Preview Statistics Broadcast Comments

About the athletes

- Country -
- Rating -
- Age -
- Height (cm) -
- Weight (kg) -
- Hand -
- Seed -
hard Coverage hard
0 H2H 0
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Alam P. 🇬🇧 — 57%

Pure model vs market (2 · Alam P. 🇬🇧): model 49% · market 10% Δ +39 pp model estimates above the market

1 · Da Rosa Castro G42.9%
2 · Alam P. 🇬🇧57.1%

Model estimate: win Da Rosa Castro G 42.9%, win Alam P. 🇬🇧 57.1%. Model favourite — Alam P. 🇬🇧.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Alam P. 🇬🇧 (odds1.62) confidence 54% ✗ outcome missed

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Da Rosa Castro G - Alam P. 🇬🇧 15 июля 2026

Tennis math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Da Rosa Castro G.

Line favourite Fonbet: Da Rosa Castro G. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.01 / 2 9.00
  • Glicko: Da Rosa Castro G 42.9% / Alam P. 🇬🇧 57.1%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 10.1%
1 89.9%
2 10.1%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Match center
Start 15.07.2026 11:00 MSK
Coverage hard
Form 1 matches
Match center

Da Rosa Castro G - Alam P. 🇬🇧

В базе учтены недавние матчи обоих участников.

Form 1/1 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Match Participants Line Overview
More needed
Form Championat, Flashscore
H2H Championat, Flashscore
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Movement Line history
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 2:0
Events 0
Statistics 0
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Da Rosa Castro G 42.1% 42.9%
Alam P. 🇬🇧 57.9% 57.1% market and model agree
1X2: 4 Bookies

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 42.9% / 57.1% probabilities
Rating 1,500 / 1,364 Da Rosa Castro G / Alam P. 🇬🇧
RD 350 / 284 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 800-2,200 / 796-1,932 strength interval
HFA: 0 HFA mu: 0.000 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: value не найден

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 9.00 Fonbet · weak value +413.5% · model 57.1%
1 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 42.9%
Total
Over 17.5 6.20 Fonbet · line only
Over 18.5 2.00 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Betcity Fonbet
П1 +1.5 — 1.83 54.6%
П1 +2.5 1.83 54.6% —
П1 -1.5 — 1.87 53.5%
П1 -2.5 — 1.80 55.6%
П1 -3.5 — 1.62 61.7%
П1 -4.5 — 1.90 52.6%
П1 -5.5 — 1.72 58.1%
П1 -6.5 — 1.07 93.5%
П2 +1.5 — 1.87 53.5%
П2 +2.5 — 1.85 54.1%
П2 +3.5 — 2.00 50.0%
П2 -1.5 — 1.83 54.6%
П2 -2.5 1.87 53.5% 1.90 52.6%
П2 -3.5 — 2.15 46.5%
П2 -4.5 — 1.80 55.6%
П2 -5.5 — 2.00 50.0%
П2 -6.5 — 6.20 16.1%

Total

Outcome Betcity Fonbet
ТБ 17.5 — 6.20 16.1%
ТБ 18.5 — 2.00 50.0%
ТБ 19.5 — 1.75 57.1%
ТБ 20.5 1.79 55.9% 2.10 47.6%
ТБ 21.5 1.86 53.8% 1.90 52.6%
ТБ 22.5 — 1.92 52.1%
ТБ 23.5 — 1.95 51.3%
ТМ 17.5 — 1.07 93.5%
ТМ 18.5 — 1.73 57.8%
ТМ 19.5 — 1.95 51.3%
ТМ 20.5 1.90 52.6% 1.65 60.6%
ТМ 21.5 1.84 54.4% 1.80 55.6%
ТМ 22.5 — 1.78 56.2%
ТМ 23.5 — 1.75 57.1%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Bet365 Betcity Fonbet Leon
П1 2.15 46.5% 2.37 42.2% 2.20 45.5% 1.01 99.0% 2.15 46.5%
П2 1.62 61.7% 1.53 65.4% 1.59 62.9% 9.00 11.1% 1.57 63.7%
Match center
Da Rosa Castro G
L
09.07 08:00 UTC+0 ITF МУЖЧИНЫ - ОДИНОЧНЫЙ РАЗРЯД: M15 Monastir 26 (Тунис), хард
Da Rosa Castro G 0:2 Барбье Газеу П. (Фра)
0 Wins
1 Losses
0.0 Sets won
2.0 Sets lost
0% Win percentage
Alam P. 🇬🇧
L
09.07 08:00 UTC+0 ITF МУЖЧИНЫ - ОДИНОЧНЫЙ РАЗРЯД: M15 Monastir 26 (Тунис), хард
Alam P. 🇬🇧 0:2 Барбье Газеу П. (Фра)
0 Wins
1 Losses
0.0 Sets won
2.0 Sets lost
0% Win percentage