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ITF Men - Singles: M15 Gubbio (Italy), clay
ITF Men - Singles: M15 Gubbio (Italy), clay
15.07.2026 20:00 MSK Match prediction

Noche G. M. 🇮🇹 - Mecarelli M. 🇮🇹

Tennis ITF Men - Singles: M15 Gubbio (Italy), clay
ITF Men - Singles: M15 Gubbio (Italy), clay clay 15.07.2026 20:00 MSK Finished
15.07.2026 20:00 MSK Finished
N
Noche G. M. 🇮🇹
M
Mecarelli M. 🇮🇹
2:0
Odds
P1 2.50 38.3% BetBoom
P2 1.55 61.7% BetBoom
Coverage: clay
Preview Statistics Broadcast Comments

About the athletes

- Country -
- Rating -
- Age -
- Height (cm) -
- Weight (kg) -
- Hand -
- Seed -
clay Coverage clay
0 H2H 0
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Mecarelli M. 🇮🇹 — 58%

Pure model vs market (2 · Mecarelli M. 🇮🇹): model 46% · market 62% Δ −16 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Noche G. M. 🇮🇹41.7%
market38%
2 · Mecarelli M. 🇮🇹58.3%
market62%

Model estimate: win Noche G. M. 🇮🇹 41.7%, win Mecarelli M. 🇮🇹 58.3%. Model favourite — Mecarelli M. 🇮🇹.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Mecarelli M. 🇮🇹 (odds1.55) confidence 55% ✗ outcome missed

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Noche G. M. 🇮🇹 - Mecarelli M. 🇮🇹 15 июля 2026

Tennis math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Mecarelli M. 🇮🇹.

Line favourite market consensus: Mecarelli M. 🇮🇹. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (market consensus): 1 2.50 / 2 1.55
  • Glicko: Noche G. M. 🇮🇹 41.7% / Mecarelli M. 🇮🇹 58.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 4.5%
1 38.3%
2 61.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Match center
Start 15.07.2026 20:00 MSK
Coverage clay
Form 6 matches
Match center

Noche G. M. 🇮🇹 - Mecarelli M. 🇮🇹

В базе учтены недавние матчи обоих участников.

Form 3/3 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line Overview
More needed
H2H Championat, Flashscore
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Movement Line history
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 2:0
Events 0
Statistics 0
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Noche G. M. 🇮🇹 40.3% 41.7%
Mecarelli M. 🇮🇹 59.7% 58.3% market and model agree
1X2: 3 Bookies

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 41.7% / 58.3% probabilities
Rating 1,601 / 1,130 Noche G. M. 🇮🇹 / Mecarelli M. 🇮🇹
RD 232 / 245 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,138-2,065 / 641-1,619 strength interval
HFA: 0 HFA mu: 0.000 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: value не найден

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.52 market consensus · no value · model 58.3%
1 2.34 market consensus · no value · model 41.7%
Total
Over 20.5 1.82 market consensus · line only
Under 20.5 1.85 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Betcity Leon
П1 +2.5 1.83 54.6% 1.90 52.6%
П1 +3.5 1.76 56.8% —
П2 -2.5 1.87 53.5% 1.74 57.5%
П2 -3.5 1.95 51.3% —

Total

Outcome Betcity Leon
ТБ 20.5 1.83 54.6% 1.80 55.6%
ТМ 20.5 1.87 53.5% 1.83 54.6%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Leon
П1 2.30 43.5% 2.50 40.0% 2.22 45.1%
П2 1.55 64.5% 1.47 68.0% 1.54 64.9%
Match center
Noche G. M. 🇮🇹
L W W
05.07 11:30 UTC+0 ЧЕЛЛЕНДЖЕР МУЖЧИНЫ - ОДИНОЧНЫЙ РАЗРЯД: Liege (Бельгия) - квалификация, грунт
Noche G. M. 🇮🇹 1:2 Хуань Ц. (Твн)
02.07 08:30 UTC+0 ITF МУЖЧИНЫ - ОДИНОЧНЫЙ РАЗРЯД: M15 Amstelveen (Нидерланды), грунт
Noche G. M. 🇮🇹 2:1 Paardekooper S. (Нид)Paardekooper S. (Нид)
01.07 07:30 UTC+0 ITF МУЖЧИНЫ - ОДИНОЧНЫЙ РАЗРЯД: M15 Amstelveen (Нидерланды), грунт
Noche G. M. 🇮🇹 2:0 Дондерс Д. (Нид)
2 Wins
1 Losses
1.7 Sets won
1.0 Sets lost
67% Win percentage
Mecarelli M. 🇮🇹
L L L
09.07 06:30 UTC+0 ITF МУЖЧИНЫ - ОДИНОЧНЫЙ РАЗРЯД: M15 Bucharest 2 (Румыния), грунт
Mecarelli M. 🇮🇹 1:2 Breazu M. F. (Рум)Breazu M. F. (Рум)
14.06 09:00 UTC+0 ЧЕЛЛЕНДЖЕР МУЖЧИНЫ - ОДИНОЧНЫЙ РАЗРЯД: Парма (Италия) - квалификация, грунт
Mecarelli M. 🇮🇹 0:2 Поль Я. (Шва)
07.06 06:30 UTC+0 ЧЕЛЛЕНДЖЕР МУЖЧИНЫ - ОДИНОЧНЫЙ РАЗРЯД: Cattolica (Италия) - квалификация, грунт
Mecarelli M. 🇮🇹 0:2 Nesterov P. (Бол)
0 Wins
3 Losses
0.3 Sets won
2.0 Sets lost
0% Win percentage