Measured price quality
Closing-price value
In our recorded sample, these quoted prices were on average 5.90% better than the same bookmaker's pre-match closing price (match-clustered standard error 0.69%); the result held in both chronological halves.
This is a historical price comparison, not a profit forecast. Over the same sample the realised return was 0.39% — effectively flat. We find better prices than the closing line; that is not the same thing as a winning bet, and we do not claim it is.
The sample
What the number is measured on
Sample from 2026-07-07 07:38 to 2026-07-27 22:48 UTC. Both chronological halves are shown because a figure that only works in one of them is not a finding.
By sport
Where it holds
| Sport | Signals | Matches | Price advantage | Clustered SE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Basketball | 81 | 55 | 6.21% | 2.00% |
| Football | 461 | 248 | 5.74% | 0.80% |
| Tennis | 86 | 68 | 6.47% | 1.82% |
The figure is close to identical across sports. That breadth is the reason we publish one aggregate number instead of promoting the best-looking slice: of 36 subsets we declared in advance, none beat the aggregate reliably.
Open now
Currently flagged prices
| Kick-off (UTC) | Sport | Match | Selection | Price | Books compared |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 06:30 | Tennis | Nikles J — Barrena A | away | 1.600 | 3 |
| 2026-07-28 12:00 | Tennis | Humbert U — Martin A. 🇺🇸 | under@20.5 | 2.050 | 3 |
| 2026-07-28 13:00 | Football | Kalyari 🇮🇹 — Modena | home | 1.850 | 10 |
| 2026-07-28 13:30 | Football | Lanciano — Bari | over@3.5 | 2.100 | 3 |
| 2026-07-28 15:00 | Football | NAC Breda — OFI | under@3.5 | 1.830 | 9 |
| 2026-07-28 15:00 | Football | NAC Breda — OFI | under@3.5 | 1.810 | 9 |
| 2026-07-28 15:00 | Tennis | Alvarez Valdes L C / Magadan A — Boyer T / Winter E | home | 1.920 | 3 |
| 2026-07-28 15:00 | Football | NAC Breda — OFI | home | 2.030 | 11 |
| 2026-07-28 15:00 | Tennis | Alvarez Valdes L C / Magadan A — Boyer T / Winter E | away | 2.170 | 3 |
| 2026-07-28 16:30 | Tennis | Damm M — Shelton B | away | 1.520 | 3 |
| 2026-07-28 16:30 | Football | Al Nejmeh — Al Ahed | under@2.5 | 2.100 | 6 |
| 2026-07-28 16:45 | Football | Stoke City — Everton 🏴 | away | 1.930 | 3 |
| 2026-07-28 17:30 | Tennis | Svajda T. 🇺🇸 — Mensik J | under@20.5 | 2.200 | 3 |
| 2026-07-29 00:15 | Basketball | Montevideo Basket Club — Stockolmo | away | 1.810 | 3 |
| 2026-07-29 00:15 | Basketball | Montevideo Basket Club — Stockolmo | away | 1.500 | 3 |
| 2026-07-29 00:15 | Basketball | Larre Borges — Colon | home | 1.750 | 3 |
| 2026-07-29 00:15 | Basketball | Larre Borges — Colon | home | 1.710 | 3 |
If you act on these, use a flat stake. We publish no confidence tiers, because we have no evidence that any subset of these signals is stronger than the rest.
Method
How the number is produced
- The closing price comes from an append-only snapshot table recorded strictly 2–180 minutes before kick-off. We never read it from our live odds table, which is overwritten as a match progresses.
- Our quote is compared to the same bookmaker's close. Comparing across books would measure their disagreement, not our timing.
- Standard errors are clustered by match. One fixture can produce several signals, and treating those as independent would overstate certainty several times over.
- Matches whose result was recorded before the nominal kick-off are excluded, because either the time or the result attribution is wrong.
- An hourly check re-tests every threshold. If coverage drops, either half turns negative, the rolling window turns negative, or the recorder stalls, the figure above is withdrawn automatically rather than left standing.