Africa: World Cup - Qualifying - First qualifying round

04.07.2026 13:00 UTC Match prediction

04.07.2026 13:00 UTC

Finished

Africa: World Cup - Qualifying - First qualifying round

Mali - Uganda

Basketball

Mali

82 : 59

Finished

Uganda

Match signals

Two independent model estimates. Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

🎯 «Confident pick»

1Mali — 90%

The most likely outcome per the model. Reliability, NOT a profit guarantee.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Mali - Uganda July 4, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Mali. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.01 / 2 11.00

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Winner bookmaker margin 8.1%

1 91.6%

2 8.4%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Standing in the tournament

League table

Mali

#18 ptsGP 44-0

Uganda

#45 ptsGP 50-5

Team positions in the current tournament per official statistics — for reference.

Basketball stats

Head-to-head and team form

Head-to-head

2Wins0

100.0%Win %0.0%

84.5Points per game72.5

87.9Offensive rating89.9

75.4Defensive rating104.8

12.0Point differential-12.0

67.5Assists43.5

138.0Rebounds106.5

30.0%3-pointers, %30.5%

Team form

Mali

Overall WWWLW Net +14.0

Home WWW Net +10.0

Away WLW Net +22.0

Uganda

Overall LLLLL Net -48.0

Home LLL Net -50.0

Away LLL Net -44.0

Team stats

Mali Overall · Home/Away Uganda

100.0%H 100.0% · A 100.0%Win %0.0%H 0.0% · A 0.0%

14.0H 10.0 · A 22.0Point differential-48.0H -50.0 · A -44.0

83.3H 83.0 · A 84.0Points per game64.3H 62.5 · A 68.0

76.3H 78.0 · A 73.0Conceded88.3H 87.5 · A 90.0

45.0%H 48.0% · A 39.0%FG, %35.0%H 30.5% · A 44.0%

66.7A 0.01st half33.3H 50.0 · A 0.0

80.6H 78.8 · A 84.0Pace82.2H 79.8 · A 87.0

102.6H 106.4 · A 95.8Offensive rating79.0H 82.1 · A 73.5

94.0H 97.5 · A 87.8Defensive rating108.5H 112.7 · A 101.0

Team totals distribution

Over 70.5 - 100.5

Mali Total (over) Uganda

83.3 Points per game 64.3

100.0%

O 70.5

33.3%

100.0%

O 71.5

33.3%

100.0%

O 72.5

33.3%

100.0%

O 73.5srednee

0.0%

100.0%

O 74.5

0.0%

100.0%

O 75.5

0.0%

100.0%

O 76.5

0.0%

100.0%

O 77.5

0.0%

Points by period

1st half (Q1+Q2)

Points per game: Mali 45.7 / Uganda —

Mali Total (over) Uganda

100.0%

O 40.5

33.3%

100.0%

O 41.5

33.3%

100.0%

O 42.5

33.3%

100.0%

O 43.5srednee

33.3%

2nd half (Q3+Q4)

Points per game: Mali — / Uganda —

Mali Total (over) Uganda

0.0%

O 40.5

33.3%

Form and head-to-head • World Cup Qualifications - Africa

Team stats

Mali

WLWWWLWWWW

W 8 • D 0 • L 2 (10)

Goals average:78.6 : 76.4

1 place, 8 pts

Uganda

WLLLLLLLLL

W 1 • D 0 • L 9 (10)

Goals average:64 : 82.6

4 place, 4 pts

Head-to-head: 5 — Mali 5, draws 0, Uganda 0 (goals 419:367)

Uganda — Mali2026-02-28 73:84
Uganda — Mali2025-08-14 72:85
Mali — Uganda2021-11-26 76:66
Uganda — Mali2018-06-30 80:95
Mali — Uganda2018-02-24 79:76

Form, head-to-head and league position: 365scores. For reference.

Rest and schedule

Team freshness

Mali

Normal schedule

Rest days: 2
Matches in 7 days: 1 (in 14: 1)

Uganda

Normal schedule

Rest days: 2
Matches in 7 days: 1 (in 14: 1)

Rest and schedule density — from matches played in our database. For reference.

Totals and pace

Team scoring

Mali

148 points/match (over 1)

Scores: 78
Concedes: 70

Uganda

157 points/match (over 1)

Scores: 62
Concedes: 95

Total line: 154.5 · projection from form: 152.5 · Over in 50% of recent games

Average scoring and pace — from matches played in our database. For reference, not a prediction.

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Match center

Start 04.07.2026 13:00 UTC

Match center

Mali - Uganda

Basketball, Mali - Uganda, 4 iyulya 2026: Highlights matches, schet 82 : 59, statistika and rezultaty, video golov. ChM-2027 — Africa. Vo skolko nachalo matches Mali - Uganda, gde smotret pryamoy efir, smotret onlayn translyatsiyu matches.

Form 1/1 recent games

H2H 0 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Betting snapshot

1X2

1 1.01 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 132.5 1.40 Fonbet · line only

Over 133.5 1.35 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet
1.86 53.8%	1.80 55.6%	—
1.91 52.4%	1.90 52.6%	—
—	1.80 55.6%	—
1.91 52.4%	—	—
1.86 53.8%	1.90 52.6%	—
1.81 55.3%	1.80 55.6%	—
—	1.90 52.6%	—
1.81 55.3%	—	—
—	—	2.45 40.8%
—	—	2.35 42.6%
—	—	2.15 46.5%
—	—	2.45 40.8%
—	—	2.55 39.2%
—	—	2.25 44.4%

Total

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet
Over 132.5	—	—	1.40 71.4%
Over 133.5	—	—	1.35 74.1%
Over 134.5	—	—	1.53 65.4%
Over 135.5	—	—	1.70 58.8%
Over 151.5	1.86 53.8%	1.85 54.1%	—
Over 153.5	1.83 54.6%	1.86 53.8%	—
Over 154.5	1.86 53.8%	1.83 54.6%	—
Over 155.5	—	1.90 52.6%	—
Under 151.5	1.86 53.8%	1.85 54.1%	—
Under 153.5	1.89 52.9%	1.84 54.4%	—
Under 154.5	1.86 53.8%	1.87 53.5%	—
Under 155.5	—	1.80 55.6%	—

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome	Baltbet	Fonbet	Leon
	1.02 98.0%	1.01 99.0%	1.03 97.1%
	11.00 9.1%	11.00 9.1%	11.10 9.0%

Match center

Mali

02.07 13:00 UTC Africa: World Cup - Qualifying - First qualifying round

Mali 78:70 Egypt

1 Wins

0 Losses

78.0 Scored

70.0 Conceded

100% Win percentage

Uganda

02.07 16:00 UTC Africa: World Cup - Qualifying - First qualifying round

Uganda 62:95 Angola

0 Wins

1 Losses

62.0 Scored

95.0 Conceded

0% Win percentage

Match center

Full head-to-head historyMali - Uganda

Mali

0 matches total

Uganda

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 Mali

Data 6 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 Uganda

4 Games 4

4 Wins 0

0 Losses 4

328 Scored 255

299 Conceded 360

8 Points 4

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Mali Uganda 4 Games 4 Wins 0 Losses 4 328 Scored 255 299 Conceded 360 8 Points 4 Rezultaty golosovaniya Iskhod v osnovnoe vremya 50% 33% 17% Double chance 42% 33% 25% CHAMP({ name: 'commentsWidget', params: { appId: CHAMP.comments['appId'], xid: 'match_1289272' } }); CHAMP('tournamentTabs'); CHAMP('swipingTabs'); CHAMP('match'); CHAMP('stickyVertical');