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AI verdict

AI pick Nigeria win probability ~90% confidence High best odds 1.01

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Nigeria. Full breakdown below.

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Africa: World Championship - Qualification - Second Krug
Africa: World Championship - Qualification - Second Krug
30.08.2026 12:00 UTC Match prediction
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction
30.08.2026 12:00 UTC
Finished

Africa: World Championship - Qualification - Second Krug

Nigeria vs Cape Verde — Basketball prediction

Basketball
Nigeria
Nigeria
76 : 52
Finished
Cape Verde
Cape Verde

Nigeria face Cap Verde in basketball, in Africa: World Championship - Qualification - Second Krug, on 30 August 2026. The PropickAI Glicko-2 model rates Nigeria as the favourite at around 90%. The bookmaker consensus (6 books) implies about 92% for the same outcome.

Latest form: Nigeria 3 won and 2 lost; Cap Verde 1 won and 4 lost. Glicko ratings: Nigeria 1628, Cap Verde 1079, a gap of 549 points.

Our model and the market consensus broadly agree on this match. Model confidence in the favourite is high. That is a 2-point gap to the market. For reliability the safer lean is a protected market on Nigeria (double chance, say) rather than the outright win alone. Key markers: an edge of 549 Glicko rating points, the model's 90% for Nigeria. Read on for team stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PropickAI AI prediction. This is a probability read from our model plus the market line, not a guaranteed outcome.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Nigeria — 90%

1 · Nigeria ✓ Pick89.6%
market 91%
2 · Cape Verde10.5%
market 9%

Model estimate: win Nigeria 89.6%, win Cape Verde 10.5%. Model favourite — Nigeria.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

🎯 Safe pick banker

Match winner — Nigeria

Model confidence 92% ~91% on our history

How often this pick wins on our settled history — not a profit forecast.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Nigeria - Cape Verde August 30, 2026

Basketball math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Nigeria.

Line favourite Fonbet: Nigeria. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.01 / 2 11.00
  • Glicko: Nigeria 89.6% / Cape Verde 10.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.1% 6 books · best price +1.5%
1 ✓ Pick 91.4%
2 8.6%

Odds source: consensus of 6 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner 1 1.13 ↓ 1.01
Winner 2 5.10 ↑ 11.00

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Nigeria
91%
1.03
Cape Verde
9%
11.50
Total
Over 155.5
50%
1.93
Under 155.5
50%
1.95

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Standing in the tournament

League table

Nigeria
#310 ptsGP 64-2
Cape Verde
#39 ptsGP 63-3

Team positions in the current tournament per official statistics — for reference.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Head-to-head

4Wins1
76.6Points on average70.0

Head-to-head matches: 5 · average total 146.6 (points)

Team form

Nigeria
5-5WLLLWWWWLL
points for 79.3points against 78.9
Cape Verde
4-6WLWLWLLWLL
points for 76.3points against 77.6

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

Play-by-play

Match timeline

NigeriaCape Verde
  • 1' Goal Nigeria
  • 2' Goal Nigeria
  • 3' Goal Nigeria
  • 4' Goal Nigeria
  • 4' Goal Cape Verde
  • 5' Goal Cape Verde
  • 5' Goal Nigeria
  • 5' Goal Cape Verde
  • 6' Goal Nigeria
  • 6' Goal Cape Verde
  • 6' Goal Nigeria
  • 6' Goal Nigeria
  • 8' Goal Nigeria
  • 9' Goal Cape Verde
  • 9' Goal Nigeria
  • 9' Goal Nigeria
  • 10' Goal Nigeria
  • 10' Goal Nigeria
  • 11' Goal Nigeria
  • 11' Goal Cape Verde
  • 11' Goal Nigeria
  • 12' Goal Cape Verde
  • 12' Goal Cape Verde
  • 12' Goal Cape Verde
  • 13' Goal Nigeria
  • 13' Goal Cape Verde
  • 14' Goal Nigeria
  • 14' Goal Nigeria
  • 15' Goal Nigeria
  • 15' Goal Cape Verde
  • 15' Goal Nigeria
  • 16' Goal Nigeria
  • 16' Goal Nigeria
  • 16' Goal Cape Verde
  • 16' Goal Cape Verde
  • 16' Goal Nigeria
  • 17' Goal Cape Verde
  • 18' Goal Nigeria
  • 19' Goal Cape Verde
  • 19' Goal Cape Verde
  • 20' Goal Cape Verde
  • 20' Goal Cape Verde
  • 20' Goal Nigeria
  • 20' Goal Cape Verde
  • 20' Goal Cape Verde
  • 21' Goal Cape Verde
  • 22' Goal Cape Verde
  • 23' Goal Nigeria
  • 23' Goal Nigeria
  • 23' Goal Nigeria
  • 23' Goal Cape Verde
  • 24' Goal Nigeria
  • 24' Goal Nigeria
  • 26' Goal Nigeria
  • 26' Goal Cape Verde
  • 26' Goal Nigeria
  • 26' Goal Nigeria
  • 27' Goal Nigeria
  • 27' Goal Cape Verde
  • 28' Goal Nigeria
  • 28' Goal Cape Verde
  • 29' Goal Cape Verde
  • 29' Goal Nigeria
  • 29' Goal Cape Verde
  • 29' Goal Cape Verde
  • 29' Goal Nigeria
  • 30' Goal Cape Verde
  • 30' Goal Cape Verde
  • 31' Goal Cape Verde
  • 31' Goal Cape Verde
  • 31' Goal Cape Verde
  • 32' Goal Nigeria
  • 32' Goal Cape Verde
  • 32' Goal Nigeria
  • 33' Goal Cape Verde
  • 33' Goal Nigeria
  • 33' Goal Cape Verde
  • 34' Goal Cape Verde
  • 35' Goal Nigeria
  • 35' Goal Cape Verde

Play-by-play: gismo. For reference.

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Match center
Start 30.08.2026 12:00 UTC
Market 1 91.6% @ 1.01 / 2 8.4% @ 11.00
Form 6 matches
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Nigeria 90%
💹 Market Nigeria 91%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
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Match center

Nigeria - Cape Verde

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 3 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 76:52
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Watch reduced: confidence too high Data: line, form, table home - 89.6% fact: home hit / ROI 3.0% / Brier 0.022 / LogLoss 0.110
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 65.8% fact: home hit / ROI 3.0% / Brier 0.234 / LogLoss 0.418
Glicko-2: public filter Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 65.8% fact: home hit / ROI 3.0% / Brier 0.234 / LogLoss 0.418
Glicko-2: precision filter Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 65.8% fact: home hit / ROI 3.0% / Brier 0.234 / LogLoss 0.418
Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Nigeria 91.5% 89.6% market and model agree
Cape Verde 8.5% 10.5%
1X2: 6 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Basketball math model
P1 / P2 89.6% / 10.5% probabilities
Rating 1,628 / 1,079 Nigeria / Cap Verde
RD 201 / 207 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,227-2,030 / 665-1,494 strength interval

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 9.90 market consensus · no value · model 10.5%
1 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 89.6%
Total
Over 143.5 1.47 Fonbet · line only
Over 144.5 1.48 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
1.86 53.8% —
1.86 53.8% —
1.91 52.4% —
1.91 52.4% —
1.86 53.8% —
1.86 53.8% —
1.81 55.3% —
1.86 53.8% —
1.86 53.8% 1.90 52.6%
1.86 53.8% 1.90 52.6%
1.81 55.3% —
1.81 55.3% —
1.86 53.8% —
1.86 53.8% —
1.91 52.4% —
1.86 53.8% —

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
Over 143.5 — — 1.47 68.0%
Over 144.5 — — 1.48 67.6%
Over 151.5 1.86 53.8% 1.82 55.0% —
Over 152.5 1.83 54.6% 1.81 55.3% —
Over 153.5 1.83 54.6% 1.90 52.6% —
Over 154.5 1.83 54.6% 1.88 53.2% —
Under 151.5 1.86 53.8% 1.88 53.2% —
Under 152.5 1.89 52.9% 1.89 52.9% —
Under 153.5 1.89 52.9% 1.80 55.6% —
Under 154.5 1.89 52.9% 1.82 55.0% —

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Kambi BetMGM Kambi Unibet Leon
1.02 98.0% 1.02 98.0% 1.01 99.0% 1.01 99.0% 1.01 99.0% 1.03 97.1%
11.00 9.1% 9.90 10.1% 11.00 9.1% 10.50 9.5% 10.50 9.5% 11.50 8.7%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 1-0-2
2026-08-30 · Nigeria 100:84 Cape Verde
2022-07-01 · Nigeria 70:79 Cape Verde
2021-11-26 · Nigeria 71:79 Cape Verde
Source: ruscore
Nigeria
L L W W W
2026-08-28 World Cup Qualification 2027, Africa, 2nd Round, Group E
Nigeria South Sudan 82:79 Nigeria
2026-08-27 World Cup Qualification 2027, Africa, 2nd Round, Group E
Nigeria Nigeria 62:78 Cameroon
2026-07-05 World Cup Qualification 2027, Africa, Group C
Nigeria Rwanda 62:106 Nigeria
2026-07-03 World Cup Qualification 2027, Africa, Group C
Nigeria Nigeria 80:79 Guinea
2026-07-02 World Cup Qualification 2027, Africa, Group C
Nigeria Tunisia 81:84 Nigeria
3 Wins
2 Losses
82.2 Scored
76.4 Conceded
60% Win percentage
Cape Verde
L L W L L
2026-08-28 World Cup Qualification 2027, Africa, 2nd Round, Group E
Cape Verde 61:81 Guinea Cape Verde
2026-08-27 World Cup Qualification 2027, Africa, 2nd Round, Group E
Tunisia 60:56 Cape Verde Cape Verde
2026-07-05 World Cup Qualification 2027, Africa, Group A
Cape Verde 98:66 Libya Cape Verde
2026-07-04 World Cup Qualification 2027, Africa, Group A
South Sudan 83:63 Cape Verde Cape Verde
2026-07-02 World Cup Qualification 2027, Africa, Group A
Cape Verde 72:82 Cameroon Cape Verde
1 Wins
4 Losses
70.0 Scored
74.4 Conceded
20% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head history: Nigeria - Cape Verde

Nigeria
3 matches total
Cape Verde
Nigeria: 1 (33.3%)
Cape Verde: 2 (66.7%)
Biggest win Nigeria 77:62 (2025-02-23) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 150 points (79:71, 2021-11-26) most points in a game

Match history

2025-02-23 World Cup Qualification, Africa 2027
Nigeria 77:62 Cap Verde
2022-07-01 World Cup Qualification, Africa 2027
Nigeria 70:79 Cap Verde
2021-11-26 World Cup Qualification, Africa 2027
Cap Verde 79:71 Nigeria

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Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nigeria vs Cape Verde?

By the PropickAI model, Nigeria is favoured — about 90% win probability.

What does PropickAI predict for Nigeria vs Cape Verde?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Nigeria. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

What are the bookmaker odds for Nigeria vs Cape Verde?

Live odds for Nigeria vs Cape Verde from multiple bookmakers are listed on this page and refresh as the market moves.

When does Nigeria vs Cape Verde start?

August 30, 2026.