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Argentina. Torneo Federal
Argentina. Torneo Federal International
14.07.2026 03:00 MSK Match prediction
14.07.2026 03:00 MSK
Finished

Argentina. Torneo Federal

Almagro de Esperansa - El-Seybo

International Basketball
Almagro de Esperansa
Almagro de Esperansa
63 : 66
Finished
El-Seybo
El-Seybo
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Almagro de Esperansa — 61%

Pure model vs market (1 · Almagro de Esperansa): model 50% · market 42% Δ +8 pp model estimates above the market

1 · Almagro de Esperansa ✓ Прогноз61.2%
market42%
2 · El-Seybo38.8%
market58%

Model estimate: win Almagro de Esperansa 61.2%, win El-Seybo 38.8%. Model favourite — Almagro de Esperansa.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Almagro de Esperansa (odds1.50) confidence 58% ✗ outcome missed

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Almagro de Esperansa - El-Seybo 14 июля 2026

Basketball math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like El-Seybo.

Line favourite Fonbet: El-Seybo. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 2.20 / 2 1.60
  • Glicko: Almagro de Esperansa 61.2% / El-Seybo 38.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.0%
1 ✓ Прогноз 42.1%
2 57.9%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Победитель П1 1.50 ↑ 2.20
Победитель П2 2.42 ↓ 1.60

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

Лидер исходов AI: П1

Main outcome П1
Agreement 1/1
Confidence 62.0%

Модели дают единый сигнал. Такие матчи мы помечаем как более сильные.

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:7/7 ready

Google AI updated14.07.2026 03:54 MSK
1 62% ✓ favourite
2 38%
Score84:79 Total points: ТМ 164.5 Bet:Фора 1 (-3.5)
Per AI data Form:W-L-W-W-W / W-W-W-W-W
DeepSeek updated14.07.2026 03:55 MSK
1 78% ✓ favourite
2 22%
Score84:74 Total points: ТБ 151.5 Bet:победа Альмагро де Эсперанса с форой -4.5
ChatGPT updated14.07.2026 03:59 MSK
1 56% ✓ favourite
2 44%
Score80:77 Total points: ТМ 161.5 Bet:Эль-Сейбо +5.5
Claude updated14.07.2026 04:01 MSK
1 62% ✓ favourite
2 38%
Score84:78 Total points: ТМ 164.5 Bet:П1 (победа Альмагро)
Qwen updated14.07.2026 03:58 MSK
1 62% ✓ favourite
2 38%
Score81:75 Total points: ТМ 158.5 Bet:П1 с форой (-4.5)
Kimi updated14.07.2026 04:06 MSK
1 62% ✓ favourite
2 38%
Score78:72 Total points: ТМ 151.5 Bet:П1 Альмагро
Per AI data Form:3W-2L (88:70, 67:57, 87:77, 71:85, 68:75) / 3W-2L (88:83, 76:63, 79:58, 84:93, 81:91)
GLM 5.2 updated14.07.2026 04:07 MSK
1 65% ✓ favourite
2 35%
Score82:74 Total points: ТБ 151.5 Bet:П1 с форой -4.5
Per AI data Form:4W1L / 2W3L H2H: NoData Injuries:Parola Key:HomeAdvantage

AI consensus:1

AI 1 2 Score Total points Bet
Google AI 62% 38% 84:79 ТМ 164.5 Фора 1 (-3.5)
DeepSeek 78% 22% 84:74 ТБ 151.5 победа Альмагро де Эсперанса с форой -4.5
ChatGPT 56% 44% 80:77 ТМ 161.5 Эль-Сейбо +5.5
Claude 62% 38% 84:78 ТМ 164.5 П1 (победа Альмагро)
Qwen 62% 38% 81:75 ТМ 158.5 П1 с форой (-4.5)
Kimi 62% 38% 78:72 ТМ 151.5 П1 Альмагро
GLM 5.2 65% 35% 82:74 ТБ 151.5 П1 с форой -4.5

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Match center
Start 14.07.2026 03:00 MSK
Match center

Almagro de Esperansa - El-Seybo

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Match Participants Line Movement
More needed
Form Championat, Flashscore
H2H Championat, Flashscore
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries
Overview Championat
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 63:66
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Almagro de Esperansa 62.0% 61.2% market and model agree
El-Seybo 38.0% 38.8%
1X2: 4 Bookies

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Basketball math model
P1 / P2 61.2% / 38.8% probabilities
Rating 1,500 / 1,500 Almagro de Esperansa / El-Seybo
RD 350 / 350 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 800-2,200 / 800-2,200 strength interval
HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: value не найден

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.60 Fonbet · no value · model 38.8%
1 2.20 Fonbet · value +34.5% · model 61.2%
Total
Over 125.5 1.80 Fonbet · line only
Over 127.5 1.80 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
П1 -4.5 1.83 54.6% 1.85 54.1% —
П2 +1.5 — — 1.90 52.6%
П2 +2.5 — — 1.75 57.1%
П2 +3.5 — — 2.55 39.2%
П2 +4.5 1.84 54.4% 1.85 54.1% 2.35 42.6%
П2 +5.5 — — 2.85 35.1%
П2 -1.5 — — 1.65 60.6%
П2 -2.5 — — 1.50 66.7%
П2 -3.5 — — 1.40 71.4%
П2 -4.5 — — 1.45 69.0%
П2 -5.5 — — 1.68 59.5%
П2 -6.5 — — 2.00 50.0%
П2 -7.5 — — 1.85 54.1%
П2 -8.5 — — 1.73 57.8%
П2 -9.5 — — 1.63 61.4%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
ТБ 125.5 — — 1.80 55.6%
ТБ 127.5 — — 1.80 55.6%
ТБ 129.5 — — 1.85 54.1%
ТБ 130.5 — — 1.85 54.1%
ТБ 131.5 — — 2.45 40.8%
ТБ 132.5 — — 2.40 41.7%
ТБ 133.5 — — 1.55 64.5%
ТБ 134.5 — — 1.82 55.0%
ТБ 135.5 — — 2.50 40.0%
ТБ 136.5 — — 2.25 44.4%
ТБ 137.5 — — 1.65 60.6%
ТБ 138.5 — — 1.82 55.0%
ТБ 139.5 — — 2.00 50.0%
ТБ 140.5 — — 2.20 45.5%
ТБ 151.5 1.83 54.6% 1.85 54.1% —
ТМ 151.5 1.84 54.4% 1.85 54.1% —

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Leon
П1 1.48 67.6% 1.49 67.1% 2.20 45.5% 1.49 67.1%
П2 2.40 41.7% 2.45 40.8% 1.60 62.5% 2.44 41.0%