•Model backs Tsinkhua Univ: probability 60% vs 64% on the line (odds 1.55)
•no edge over the line (-5 pp) — informational only
•Total: Over 157.5: model expects a total of ~160 ochk
•at line 157.5 (odds 1.85)
•Handicap F2 -1.5: score forecast 79:81 (diff -2) covers the line (odds 1.85).
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
*
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Waseda Univ - Tsing Hua Univ August 4, 2026
Basketball math model
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite Fonbet: Tsing Hua Univ. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
Win odds (Fonbet): 1 2.07 / 2 1.67
%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner
bookmaker margin 8.7%
2 books · best price +11.0%
138.1%
2 ✓ Pick61.9%
Odds source: consensus of 2 books (Baltbet, Fonbet). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
⇅
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner P11.94↑ 2.07
Winner P21.77↓ 1.67
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
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Match center
Start04.08.2026 09:00 UTC
Market1 44.7% @ 2.07 / 2 55.3% @ 1.67
Form2 matches
Match center
Waseda Univ - Tsing Hua Univ
V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.
Form1/1
recent games
H2H0
head-to-head matches
Market2
model / bookmakers
Flashscorematch data
source checked
Oddsmatch data
source checked
Bookiesapimatch data
source checked
Line depthmatch data
source checked
Present in data
MarketFormMatchParticipantsLineMovementOverview
More needed
H2HChampionat, Flashscore
TournamentChampionat, Flashscore
Lineup / squadChampionat, Injuries
Market and Glicko
Basketball math model.
The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.
OutcomeLineGlickoSignal
Waseda Univ38.1%39.0%
Tsing Hua Univ61.9%61.0%market and model agree
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Basketball math model
P1 / P239.0% / 61.0%
probabilities
Rating1,698 / 1,764
Waseda Univ / Tsing Hua Univ
RD290 / 291
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD1,118-2,277 / 1,182-2,346
strength interval
The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.
Betting snapshot
1X2
21.67
Fonbet · no value · model 61.0%
12.07
Fonbet · no value · model 39.0%
Total
Over 139.51.84
market consensus · line only
Over 157.51.85
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
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