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AI verdict

AI pick Iran win probability ~56% confidence Medium best odds 9.50

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Iran. Full breakdown below.

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AUSTRALASIA: World Championship - Qualification - Second Krug
AUSTRALASIA: World Championship - Qualification - Second Krug
30.08.2026 12:00 UTC Match prediction
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction
30.08.2026 12:00 UTC
Finished

AUSTRALASIA: World Championship - Qualification - Second Krug

Philippines vs Iran — Basketball prediction

Basketball
Philippines
Philippines
57 : 54
Finished
Iran
Iran

Philippines host Iran in basketball, in AUSTRALASIA: World Championship - Qualification - Second Krug, on 30 August 2026. PropickAI's Glicko-2 model makes Iran the favourite, with a win probability of about 56%. The bookmaker consensus (5 books) implies about 56% for the same outcome.

Recent form reads: Philippines have 0 won and 3 lost of their last 3; Iran have 2 won and 1 lost of 3. On the Glicko scale it is 1133 for Philippines against 1688 for Iran - a gap of 555 points.

Our model and the market consensus broadly agree on this match. Model confidence in the favourite is low. The favourite's edge is moderate, so a protective market (double chance or draw-no-bet) is steadier than a single outright bet. Key markers: an edge of 555 Glicko rating points, the model's 56% for Iran. Below on this page: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PropickAI AI breakdown. This is a probability read from our model plus the market line, not a guaranteed outcome.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Iran — 56%

1 · Philippines43.8%
2 · Iran ✓ Pick56.2%

Model estimate: win Philippines 43.8%, win Iran 56.2%. Model favourite — Iran.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

🎯 Safe pick banker

Match winner — Philippines

Model confidence 90% ~91% on our history

How often this pick wins on our settled history — not a profit forecast.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Philippines - Iran August 30, 2026

Basketball math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Philippines.

Line favourite Fonbet: Philippines. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.01 / 2 9.50
  • Glicko: Philippines 43.8% / Iran 56.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.0% 5 books · best price +430.7%
1 48.3%
2 ✓ Pick 51.8%

Odds source: consensus of 5 books (Fonbet, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon, Pinnacle). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner 1 1.42 ↑ 2.25
Winner 2 2.65 ↓ 1.57

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Philippines
44%
2.16
Iran
56%
9.50
Handicap
Philippines (1.5)
51%
1.89
Iran (1.5)
49%
1.84
Total
Over 155
50%
1.86
Under 155
50%
1.88

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Standing in the tournament

League table

Philippines
#38 ptsGP 62-4
Iran
#111 ptsGP 65-1

Team positions in the current tournament per official statistics — for reference.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Head-to-head

8Wins5
75.9Points on average72.1

Head-to-head matches: 13 · average total 147.9 (points)

Team form

Philippines
6-4WWWWWLLLLW
points for 76.2points against 76.9
Iran
7-3WLWWWLWWWL
points for 74.8points against 71.4

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

Play-by-play

Match timeline

PhilippinesIran
  • 1' Goal Iran
  • 2' Goal Iran
  • 3' Goal Iran
  • 4' Goal Philippines
  • 4' Goal Iran
  • 7' Goal Philippines
  • 7' Goal Iran
  • 8' Goal Iran
  • 8' Goal Iran
  • 9' Goal Iran
  • 9' Goal Philippines
  • 9' Goal Philippines
  • 11' Goal Philippines
  • 11' Goal Philippines
  • 11' Goal Philippines
  • 12' Goal Iran
  • 12' Goal Iran
  • 13' Goal Philippines
  • 13' Goal Philippines
  • 13' Goal Philippines
  • 14' Goal Philippines
  • 14' Goal Philippines
  • 14' Goal Iran
  • 15' Goal Philippines
  • 16' Goal Iran
  • 16' Goal Iran
  • 17' Goal Philippines
  • 17' Goal Philippines
  • 18' Goal Philippines
  • 18' Goal Philippines
  • 19' Goal Philippines
  • 19' Goal Philippines
  • 19' Goal Philippines
  • 19' Goal Iran
  • 20' Goal Philippines
  • 20' Goal Philippines
  • 20' Goal Iran
  • 20' Goal Philippines
  • 20' Goal Philippines
  • 21' Goal Philippines
  • 21' Goal Philippines
  • 22' Goal Iran
  • 22' Goal Iran
  • 24' Goal Philippines
  • 27' Goal Philippines
  • 27' Goal Iran
  • 27' Goal Philippines
  • 28' Goal Iran
  • 28' Goal Philippines
  • 29' Goal Iran
  • 29' Goal Iran
  • 30' Goal Iran
  • 31' Goal Iran
  • 32' Goal Iran
  • 32' Goal Philippines
  • 32' Goal Philippines
  • 33' Goal Philippines
  • 33' Goal Iran
  • 34' Goal Philippines
  • 36' Goal Philippines
  • 36' Goal Philippines
  • 37' Goal Iran
  • 38' Goal Philippines
  • 39' Goal Philippines
  • 39' Goal Philippines
  • 39' Goal Philippines
  • 40' Goal Philippines

Play-by-play: gismo. For reference.

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Match center
Start 30.08.2026 12:00 UTC
Market 1 90.4% @ 1.01 / 2 9.6% @ 9.50
Form 6 matches
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Iran 56%
💹 Market Iran 52%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
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Match center

Philippines - Iran

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 3 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 57:54
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 56.2% fact: home missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.631 / LogLoss 0.825
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 52.5% fact: home missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.551 / LogLoss 0.744
Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Philippines 44.2% 43.8%
Iran 55.8% 56.2% market and model agree
1X2: 5 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Basketball math model
P1 / P2 43.8% / 56.2% probabilities
Rating 1,133 / 1,688 Philippines / Iran
RD 260 / 273 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 614-1,652 / 1,143-2,234 strength interval

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 9.50 Fonbet · weak value +433.8% · model 56.2%
1 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 43.8%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.87 market consensus · line only
2 +1 1.81 market consensus · line only
2 0.5 1.67 market consensus · line only
2 1 1.81 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 129.5 1.35 Fonbet · line only
Over 130.5 1.88 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
1.77 56.5%
2.15 46.5%
2.30 43.5%
1.80 55.6%
1.90 52.6%
2.02 49.5%
2.15 46.5%
2.25 44.4%
1.95 51.3%
2.80 35.7%
1.70 58.8%
1.78 56.2%
1.38 72.5%
1.40 71.4%
1.43 69.9%
1.78 56.2%
1.75 57.1%
2.00 50.0%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 129.5 1.35 74.1%
Over 130.5 1.88 53.2%
Over 131.5 1.93 51.8%
Over 132.5 1.70 58.8%
Over 133.5 1.70 58.8%
Over 134.5 1.90 52.6%
Over 135.5 2.15 46.5%
Over 136.5 2.60 38.5%
Over 137.5 3.00 33.3%
Over 138.5 2.55 39.2%
Over 139.5 2.90 34.5%
Over 140.5 2.45 40.8%
Over 141.5 2.75 36.4%
Over 142.5 2.15 46.5%
Over 143.5 2.35 42.6%
Over 144.5 2.55 39.2%
Over 145.5 1.68 59.5%
Over 146.5 1.80 55.6%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Fonbet Kambi BetMGM Kambi Unibet Leon Pinnacle
1.01 99.0% 1.92 52.1% 1.92 52.1% 2.13 47.0% 2.16 46.3%
9.50 10.5% 1.79 55.9% 1.79 55.9% 1.69 59.2% 1.64 60.9%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 2-0-3
2026-08-30 · Philippines 68:56 Iran
2019-09-08 · Philippines 75:95 Iran
2018-12-03 · Philippines 70:78 Iran
2018-09-13 · Philippines 73:81 Iran
2015-09-28 · Philippines 87:73 Iran
Source: ruscore
Philippines
W L L L L
2026-08-28 World Cup Qualification 2027, Asia & Oceania, Main Round, Group E
Philippines Jordan 81:82 Philippines
2026-07-06 World Cup Qualification 2027, Asia & Oceania, Group A
Philippines Australia 92:49 Philippines
2026-07-03 World Cup Qualification 2027, Asia & Oceania, Group A
Philippines New Zealand 106:102 Philippines
2026-03-01 World Cup Qualification 2027, Asia & Oceania, Group A
Philippines Philippines 66:93 Australia
2026-02-26 World Cup Qualification 2027, Asia & Oceania, Group A
Philippines Philippines 66:69 New Zealand
1 Wins
4 Losses
73.0 Scored
88.2 Conceded
20% Win percentage
Iran
L W W W L
2026-08-28 World Cup Qualification 2027, Asia & Oceania, Main Round, Group E
Iran 91:93 New Zealand Iran
2026-07-05 World Cup Qualification 2027, Asia & Oceania, Group C
Syria 52:73 Iran Iran
2026-07-02 World Cup Qualification 2027, Asia & Oceania, Group C
Jordan 49:67 Iran Iran
2026-06-29 World Cup Qualification 2027, Asia & Oceania, Group C
Iran 72:68 Syria Iran
2026-02-27 World Cup Qualification 2027, Asia & Oceania, Group C
Iran 60:73 Jordan Iran
3 Wins
2 Losses
72.6 Scored
67.0 Conceded
60% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head history: Philippines - Iran

Philippines
3 matches total
Iran
Philippines: 1 (33.3%)
Iran: 2 (66.7%)
Biggest win Iran 95:75 (2019-09-08) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 170 points (95:75, 2019-09-08) most points in a game

Match history

2023-10-03 World Cup Qualification, Asia & Oceania 2027
Iran 83:84 Philippines
2019-09-08 World Cup Qualification, Asia & Oceania 2027
Iran 95:75 Philippines
2018-12-03 World Cup Qualification, Asia & Oceania 2027
Philippines 70:78 Iran

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Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Philippines vs Iran?

By the PropickAI model, Philippines is favoured — about 56% win probability.

What does PropickAI predict for Philippines vs Iran?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Philippines. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

What are the bookmaker odds for Philippines vs Iran?

Live odds for Philippines vs Iran from multiple bookmakers are listed on this page and refresh as the market moves.

When does Philippines vs Iran start?

August 30, 2026.