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Australia. NBL 1
Australia. NBL 1
04.07.2026 08:00 UTC Match prediction
04.07.2026 08:00 UTC
Finished

Australia. NBL 1

Rockhampton Rockets - Townsville Heat

Basketball
Rockhampton Rockets
Rockhampton Rockets
90 : 102
Finished
Townsville Heat
Townsville Heat
Match signals

Two independent model estimates. Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

🔒 «Formula lock»

1Rockhampton Rockets — 57%

The formula agrees with the market favourite in the moderate-odds zone — historically the most profitable slice (basketball/football/hockey). NOT a profit guarantee.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Rockhampton Rockets - Townsville Heat July 4, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Townsville Heat. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 7.90 / 2 1.02

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 10.7%
1 11.4%
2 88.6%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Basketball stats

Head-to-head and team form

Head-to-head

2Wins7
20.0%Win %70.0%
77.1Points per game86.0
109.5Offensive rating112.4
122.1Defensive rating100.7
-8.9Point differential8.9
63.0Assists66.6
106.7Rebounds120.7
29.4%3-pointers, %37.8%

Team form

Rockhampton Rockets
Overall LLLLL Net -23.5
Home LLL Net -24.7
Away LLL Net -22.3
Townsville Heat
Overall LLLLL Net -22.2
Home LLLL Net -21.7
Away LL Net -22.6

Team stats

Rockhampton Rockets Overall · Home/Away Townsville Heat
16.7%H 16.7% · A 16.7%Win %23.1%H 16.7% · A 28.6%
-23.5H -24.7 · A -22.3Point differential-22.2H -21.7 · A -22.6
94.4H 89.2 · A 99.7Points per game87.2H 88.3 · A 86.3
106.2H 101.5 · A 110.8Conceded98.3H 99.2 · A 97.6
49.8%H 48.2% · A 51.3%FG, %47.2%H 46.8% · A 47.4%
16.7H 16.7 · A 16.71st half38.5H 66.7 · A 14.3
80.9H 85.8 · A 76.1Pace83.3H 82.9 · A 83.7
116.2H 110.2 · A 122.8Offensive rating105.4H 107.5 · A 103.7
130.6H 123.9 · A 138.1Defensive rating118.8H 121.1 · A 116.9

Team totals distribution

Over 70.5 - 100.5

Rockhampton Rockets Total (over) Townsville Heat
94.4 Points per game 87.2
75.0%
O 87.5
46.2%
75.0%
O 88.5
46.2%
75.0%
O 89.5
38.5%
75.0%
O 90.5srednee
38.5%
66.7%
O 91.5
38.5%
58.3%
O 92.5
30.8%
58.3%
O 93.5
23.1%
50.0%
O 94.5
23.1%

Over 101.5 - 130.5

Rockhampton Rockets Total (over) Townsville Heat
33.3%
O 102.5
7.7%
33.3%
O 103.5
7.7%
16.7%
O 104.5
7.7%
16.7%
O 105.5
7.7%
8.3%
O 106.5
7.7%
8.3%
O 107.5
7.7%
8.3%
O 108.5
7.7%
8.3%
O 109.5
7.7%

Points by period

1st half (Q1+Q2)

Points per game: Rockhampton Rockets 49.2 / Townsville Heat 43.9

Rockhampton Rockets Total (over) Townsville Heat
75.0%
O 45.5
38.5%
75.0%
O 46.5srednee
38.5%
75.0%
O 47.5
38.5%
66.7%
O 48.5
38.5%
2nd half (Q3+Q4)

Points per game: Rockhampton Rockets 45.3 / Townsville Heat 43.3

Rockhampton Rockets Total (over) Townsville Heat
58.3%
O 42.5
46.2%
50.0%
O 43.5
46.2%
41.7%
O 44.5srednee
46.2%
41.7%
O 45.5
46.2%

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Match center
Start 04.07.2026 08:00 UTC
Match center

Rockhampton Rockets - Townsville Heat

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.02 Fonbet · line only
1 7.90 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 100.5 1.97 Fonbet · line only
Over 187.5 1.55 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
1.84 54.4% 1.85 54.1% —
1.84 54.4% 1.83 54.6% —
1.88 53.2% 1.90 52.6% —
1.88 53.2% 1.90 52.6% —
1.83 54.6% 1.87 53.5% —
1.79 55.9% 1.80 55.6% —
1.79 55.9% 1.80 55.6% —
1.83 54.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.53 65.4%
— — 1.45 69.0%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
Over 100.5 — — 1.97 50.8%
Over 187.5 — — 1.55 64.5%
Over 188.5 — — 1.65 60.6%
Over 189.5 — — 1.70 58.8%
Over 191.5 1.84 54.4% 1.85 54.1% —
Over 193.5 1.84 54.4% 1.81 55.3% —
Over 195.5 — 1.85 54.1% —
Over 196.5 1.84 54.4% 1.90 52.6% —
Under 191.5 1.83 54.6% 1.85 54.1% —
Under 193.5 1.83 54.6% 1.89 52.9% —
Under 195.5 — 1.85 54.1% —
Under 196.5 1.83 54.6% 1.80 55.6% —

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Leon
1.61 62.1% 1.60 62.5% 7.90 12.7% 1.67 59.9%
2.15 46.5% 2.20 45.5% 1.02 98.0% 2.27 44.1%
Match center
Rockhampton Rockets
L L L L L
12.06 08:30 UTC Australia: NBL 1 North
Rockhampton Rockets 85:118 Kerns MarlinsKerns Marlins
07.06 04:00 UTC Australia: NBL 1 North
Rockhampton Rockets 106:112 Ipswich ForceIpswich Force
06.06 07:00 UTC Australia: NBL 1 North
Rockhampton Rockets 111:122 South West Metro PiratesSouth West Metro Pirates
05.06 08:00 UTC Australia: NBL 1 North
Rockhampton Rockets 92:117 Logan TanderLogan Tander
30.05 08:00 UTC Australia: NBL 1 North
Rockhampton Rockets 95:112 Northside WizardsNorthside Wizards
0 Wins
5 Losses
97.8 Scored
116.2 Conceded
0% Win percentage
Townsville Heat
L L L W L
03.07 08:30 UTC Australia: NBL 1 North
Townsville Heat 77:95 Mackay MeteorsMackay Meteors
13.06 08:00 UTC Australia: NBL 1 North
Townsville Heat 87:90 North Gold Coast SeahawksNorth Gold Coast Seahawks
07.06 04:00 UTC Australia: NBL 1 North
Townsville Heat 101:117 Sautern Distrikt SpartansSautern Distrikt Spartans
06.06 07:00 UTC Australia: NBL 1 North
Townsville Heat 110:92 Brisben KepitalzBrisben Kepitalz
29.05 08:30 UTC Australia: NBL 1 North
Townsville Heat 83:110 Gold Kost RollersGold Kost Rollers
1 Wins
4 Losses
91.6 Scored
100.8 Conceded
20% Win percentage