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Australia. NBL 1
Australia. NBL 1
03.07.2026 08:00 UTC Match prediction
03.07.2026 08:00 UTC
Finished

Australia. NBL 1

South West Metro Pirates - Logan Thunder

Basketball
South West Metro Pirates
South West Metro Pirates
85 : 112
Finished
Logan Thunder
Logan Thunder
Match signals

Two independent model estimates. Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

🎯 «Confident pick»

2Logan Thunder — 75%

The most likely outcome per the model. Reliability, NOT a profit guarantee.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction South West Metro Pirates - Logan Thunder July 3, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Logan Thunder. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 8.50 / 2 1.02

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 9.8%
1 10.7%
2 89.3%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Basketball stats

Head-to-head and team form

Head-to-head

3Wins7
27.3%Win %63.6%
80.0Points per game89.3
113.9Offensive rating105.7
127.1Defensive rating94.7
-9.3Point differential9.3
51.4Assists54.0
103.2Rebounds126.9
37.8%3-pointers, %46.0%

Team form

South West Metro Pirates
Overall LWWWW Net -30.2
Home WW Net -19.2
Away LWWL Net -37.0
Logan Thunder
Overall WLWWL Net +26.4
Home LWW Net +22.7
Away WWL Net +30.8

Team stats

South West Metro Pirates Overall · Home/Away Logan Thunder
30.8%H 40.0% · A 25.0%Win %72.7%H 66.7% · A 80.0%
-30.2H -19.2 · A -37.0Point differential26.4H 22.7 · A 30.8
85.8H 86.2 · A 85.5Points per game102.6H 100.8 · A 104.8
100.9H 95.8 · A 104.0Conceded89.5H 89.5 · A 89.4
50.0%H 53.4% · A 47.9%FG, %55.7%H 58.0% · A 53.0%
30.8H 40.0 · A 25.01st half—A 80.0
76.0H 65.9 · A 82.3Pace79.2H 75.1 · A 84.1
114.5H 134.7 · A 104.7Offensive rating128.5H 135.7 · A 120.9
134.6H 158.4 · A 123.1Defensive rating112.0H 118.2 · A 105.3

Team totals distribution

Over 70.5 - 100.5

South West Metro Pirates Total (over) Logan Thunder
85.8 Points per game 102.6
38.5%
O 90.5
90.9%
38.5%
O 91.5
90.9%
38.5%
O 92.5
90.9%
38.5%
O 93.5
81.8%
38.5%
O 94.5среднее
81.8%
38.5%
O 95.5
72.7%
30.8%
O 96.5
63.6%
30.8%
O 97.5
63.6%

Over 101.5 - 130.5

South West Metro Pirates Total (over) Logan Thunder
7.7%
O 108.5
18.2%
7.7%
O 109.5
18.2%
7.7%
O 110.5
18.2%
7.7%
O 111.5
18.2%
7.7%
O 112.5
18.2%
7.7%
O 113.5
18.2%
7.7%
O 114.5
18.2%
7.7%
O 115.5
18.2%

Points by period

1st half (Q1+Q2)

Points per game: South West Metro Pirates 45.5 / Logan Thunder 53.6

South West Metro Pirates Total (over) Logan Thunder
38.5%
O 48.5
90.9%
38.5%
O 49.5среднее
90.9%
38.5%
O 50.5
81.8%
30.8%
O 51.5
72.7%
2nd half (Q3+Q4)

Points per game: South West Metro Pirates 40.3 / Logan Thunder 49.0

South West Metro Pirates Total (over) Logan Thunder
30.8%
O 43.5
63.6%
23.1%
O 44.5среднее
63.6%
15.4%
O 45.5
63.6%
15.4%
O 46.5
54.5%

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Match center
Start 03.07.2026 08:00 UTC
Match center

South West Metro Pirates - Logan Thunder

Form 5/4 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.02 Fonbet · line only
1 8.50 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 143.5 1.67 Fonbet · line only
Over 144.5 1.78 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
1.84 54.4% 1.90 52.6% —
1.83 54.6% — —
1.83 54.6% — —
— — 1.92 52.1%
— — 1.78 56.2%
— — 1.50 66.7%
— — 1.50 66.7%
— — 1.58 63.3%
— — 1.53 65.4%
— — 1.63 61.4%
— — 1.43 69.9%
— — 1.50 66.7%
— — 1.60 62.5%
1.83 54.6% 1.80 55.6% —
1.83 54.6% — —
1.83 54.6% — —

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
Over 143.5 — — 1.67 59.9%
Over 144.5 — — 1.78 56.2%
Over 145.5 — — 1.90 52.6%
Over 146.5 — — 2.05 48.8%
Over 147.5 — — 1.65 60.6%
Over 148.5 — — 1.75 57.1%
Over 187.5 1.81 55.3% 1.80 55.6% —
Over 188.5 1.80 55.6% 1.81 55.3% —
Over 189.5 1.80 55.6% 1.81 55.3% —
Under 187.5 1.86 53.8% 1.90 52.6% —
Under 188.5 1.86 53.8% 1.89 52.9% —
Under 189.5 1.86 53.8% 1.89 52.9% —

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Leon
4.40 22.7% 4.40 22.7% 8.50 11.8% 4.58 21.8%
1.16 86.2% 1.17 85.5% 1.02 98.0% 1.22 82.0%
Match center
South West Metro Pirates
W W L L L
13.06 07:00 UTC Australia: NBL 1 North
South West Metro Pirates 102:92 Sanshayn-Kost Finiks
06.06 07:00 UTC Australia: NBL 1 North
South West Metro Pirates 122:111 Rokkhempton RoketsRokkhempton Rokets
31.05 03:00 UTC Australia: NBL 1 North
South West Metro Pirates 77:86 Ipswich ForceIpswich Force
30.05 07:00 UTC Australia: NBL 1 North
South West Metro Pirates 88:104 Brisben KepitalzBrisben Kepitalz
23.05 07:00 UTC Australia: NBL 1 North
South West Metro Pirates 68:75 North Gold Coast SeahawksNorth Gold Coast Seahawks
2 Wins
3 Losses
91.4 Scored
93.6 Conceded
40% Win percentage
Logan Thunder
W W L W
13.06 08:00 UTC Australia: NBL 1 North
Logan Thunder 124:84 Sautern Distrikt SpartansSautern Distrikt Spartans
05.06 08:00 UTC Australia: NBL 1 North
Logan Thunder 117:92 Rokkhempton RoketsRokkhempton Rokets
30.05 08:00 UTC Australia: NBL 1 North
Logan Thunder 87:116 Sanshayn-Kost Finiks
29.05 08:00 UTC Australia: NBL 1 North
Logan Thunder 95:78 North Gold Coast SeahawksNorth Gold Coast Seahawks
3 Wins
1 Losses
105.8 Scored
92.5 Conceded
75% Win percentage