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Australia: NBL 1 South - Women
Australia: NBL 1 South - Women
04.07.2026 05:30 UTC Match prediction
04.07.2026 05:30 UTC
Finished

Australia: NBL 1 South - Women

Northern Tasmania - Univer Melbourne

Basketball
Northern Tasmania
Northern Tasmania
51 : 73
Finished
Univer Melbourne
Univer Melbourne
Match signals

Two independent model estimates. Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

🔒 «Formula lock»

2Univer Melbourne — 65%

The formula agrees with the market favourite in the moderate-odds zone — historically the most profitable slice (basketball/football/hockey). NOT a profit guarantee.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Northern Tasmania - Univer Melbourne July 4, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Univer Melbourne. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 6.60 / 2 1.04

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 11.3%
1 13.6%
2 86.4%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Basketball stats

Head-to-head and team form

Head-to-head

0Wins1
0.0%Win %100.0%
93.0Points per game116.0
111.6Offensive rating157.7
139.2Defensive rating126.4
-23.0Point differential23.0
45.0Assists63.0
84.0Rebounds117.0
36.0%3-pointers, %44.0%

Team form

Northern Tasmania
Overall LWWWW Net -17.4
Home LWW Net -33.3
Away WWL Net -1.6
Univer Melbourne
Overall LWLLW Net +3.3
Home WLLW Net +5.4
Away LL Net +0.9

Team stats

Northern Tasmania Overall · Home/Away Univer Melbourne
33.3%H 22.2% · A 44.4%Win %52.6%H 60.0% · A 44.4%
-17.4H -33.3 · A -1.6Point differential3.3H 5.4 · A 0.9
91.3H 86.3 · A 96.3Points per game94.7H 93.3 · A 96.2
100.1H 103.0 · A 97.1Conceded93.1H 90.6 · A 95.8
49.1%H 47.0% · A 51.1%FG, %50.6%H 49.5% · A 51.8%
22.2H 22.2 · A 22.21st half47.4H 40.0 · A 55.6
78.0H 76.4 · A 79.7Pace80.1H 80.1 · A 80.2
117.0H 119.9 · A 114.3Offensive rating118.6H 118.5 · A 118.8
128.2H 131.4 · A 125.2Defensive rating116.6H 116.4 · A 116.7

Team totals distribution

Over 70.5 - 100.5

Northern Tasmania Total (over) Univer Melbourne
91.3 Points per game 94.7
55.6%
O 89.5
63.2%
50.0%
O 90.5
63.2%
50.0%
O 91.5
57.9%
44.4%
O 92.5srednee
52.6%
38.9%
O 93.5
52.6%
33.3%
O 94.5
52.6%
33.3%
O 95.5
52.6%
33.3%
O 96.5
52.6%

Over 101.5 - 130.5

Northern Tasmania Total (over) Univer Melbourne
5.6%
O 105.5
21.1%
5.6%
O 106.5
10.5%
5.6%
O 107.5
10.5%
5.6%
O 108.5
10.5%
5.6%
O 109.5
5.3%
5.6%
O 110.5
5.3%
5.6%
O 111.5
5.3%
5.6%
O 112.5
5.3%

Points by period

1st half (Q1+Q2)

Points per game: Northern Tasmania 45.9 / Univer Melbourne 47.6

Northern Tasmania Total (over) Univer Melbourne
55.6%
O 45.5
52.6%
44.4%
O 46.5srednee
52.6%
27.8%
O 47.5
42.1%
16.7%
O 48.5
36.8%
2nd half (Q3+Q4)

Points per game: Northern Tasmania 45.4 / Univer Melbourne 47.1

Northern Tasmania Total (over) Univer Melbourne
50.0%
O 44.5
57.9%
50.0%
O 45.5
52.6%
44.4%
O 46.5srednee
52.6%
44.4%
O 47.5
42.1%

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Match center
Start 04.07.2026 05:30 UTC
Match center

Northern Tasmania - Univer Melbourne

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.04 Fonbet · line only
1 6.60 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 153.5 1.82 Fonbet · line only
Over 154.5 1.82 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
1.84 54.4% 1.90 52.6% —
1.84 54.4% 1.86 53.8% —
1.84 54.4% 1.80 55.6% —
1.83 54.6% 1.83 54.6% —
— — 2.00 50.0%
— — 1.85 54.1%
1.83 54.6% 1.80 55.6% —
1.83 54.6% 1.84 54.4% —
1.83 54.6% 1.90 52.6% —
1.83 54.6% 1.87 53.5% —

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
Over 153.5 — — 1.82 55.0%
Over 154.5 — 1.82 55.0% 1.82 55.0%
Over 155.5 1.81 55.3% — 1.82 55.0%
Over 156.5 1.84 54.4% 1.84 54.4% 1.85 54.1%
Over 157.5 1.84 54.4% 1.82 55.0% 1.85 54.1%
Over 178.5 — — 1.43 69.9%
Under 154.5 — 1.88 53.2% —
Under 155.5 1.86 53.8% — —
Under 156.5 1.83 54.6% 1.86 53.8% —
Under 157.5 1.83 54.6% 1.88 53.2% —

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Leon
3.20 31.3% 2.90 34.5% 6.60 15.2% 3.04 32.9%
1.29 77.5% 1.35 74.1% 1.04 96.2% 1.41 70.9%
Match center
Northern Tasmania
L L W W W
14.06 00:00 UTC Australia: NBL 1 South - Women
Northern Tasmania 75:77 Ballarat (Zh)Ballarat (Zh)
12.06 06:30 UTC Australia: NBL 1 South - Women
Northern Tasmania 90:109 Mt. Gamber (Zh)Mt. Gamber (Zh)
30.05 05:30 UTC Australia: NBL 1 South - Women
Northern Tasmania 74:64 Khobart (Zh)Khobart (Zh)
24.05 00:30 UTC Australia: NBL 1 South - Women
Northern Tasmania 72:68 Frankston (Zh)Frankston (Zh)
23.05 05:00 UTC Australia: NBL 1 South - Women
Northern Tasmania 88:80 Gilong (Zh)Gilong (Zh)
3 Wins
2 Losses
79.8 Scored
79.6 Conceded
60% Win percentage
Univer Melbourne
W W L W L
03.07 06:00 UTC Australia: NBL 1 South - Women
Univer Melbourne 85:70 Khobart (Zh)Khobart (Zh)
13.06 06:00 UTC Australia: NBL 1 South - Women
Univer Melbourne 96:84 Eltkhem (Zh)Eltkhem (Zh)
05.06 06:30 UTC Australia: NBL 1 South - Women
Univer Melbourne 70:83 Casey CavaliersCasey Cavaliers
31.05 00:30 UTC Australia: NBL 1 South - Women
Univer Melbourne 80:66 Nunavading (Zh)Nunavading (Zh)
30.05 05:00 UTC Australia: NBL 1 South - Women
Univer Melbourne 80:82 Keilor ThunderKeilor Thunder
3 Wins
2 Losses
82.2 Scored
77.0 Conceded
60% Win percentage