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Australia: NBL 1 South - Women
Australia: NBL 1 South - Women
05.07.2026 00:00 UTC Match prediction
05.07.2026 00:00 UTC
Finished

Australia: NBL 1 South - Women

Keilor Thunder - Casey Cavaliers

Basketball
Keilor Thunder
Keilor Thunder
49 : 59
Finished
Casey Cavaliers
Casey Cavaliers

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Keilor Thunder - Casey Cavaliers July 5, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Keilor Thunder. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.50 / 2 2.42

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.0%
1 61.7%
2 38.3%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Basketball stats

Head-to-head and team form

Head-to-head

2Wins2
50.0%Win %50.0%
87.0Points per game91.5
97.1Offensive rating117.9
102.2Defensive rating112.1
-4.5Point differential4.5
39.0Assists42.0
93.0Rebounds112.5
33.8%3-pointers, %35.0%

Team form

Keilor Thunder
Overall LLLWW Net -7.8
Home LWL Net -4.2
Away LLW Net -11.8
Casey Cavaliers
Overall WWLLW Net +6.2
Home WLW Net -2.7
Away WLW Net +15.1

Team stats

Keilor Thunder Overall · Home/Away Casey Cavaliers
26.3%H 30.0% · A 22.2%Win %55.6%H 22.2% · A 88.9%
-7.8H -4.2 · A -11.8Point differential6.2H -2.7 · A 15.1
85.5H 85.5 · A 85.6Points per game88.9H 89.6 · A 88.2
89.4H 87.6 · A 91.4Conceded85.8H 90.9 · A 80.7
50.4%H 49.5% · A 51.4%FG, %48.6%H 47.0% · A 50.2%
47.4H 60.0 · A 33.31st half61.1H 44.4 · A 77.8
73.9H 73.6 · A 74.4Pace75.4H 76.4 · A 74.4
115.8H 115.2 · A 116.5Offensive rating116.9H 115.7 · A 118.2
121.1H 120.4 · A 121.8Defensive rating112.8H 111.6 · A 114.1

Team totals distribution

Over 70.5 - 100.5

Keilor Thunder Total (over) Casey Cavaliers
85.5 Points per game 88.9
63.2%
O 83.5
72.2%
57.9%
O 84.5
72.2%
47.4%
O 85.5
66.7%
47.4%
O 86.5
61.1%
42.1%
O 87.5среднее
55.6%
31.6%
O 88.5
55.6%
26.3%
O 89.5
50.0%
15.8%
O 90.5
44.4%

Over 101.5 - 130.5

Keilor Thunder Total (over) Casey Cavaliers
0.0%
O 101.5
5.6%

Points by period

1st half (Q1+Q2)

Points per game: Keilor Thunder 42.3 / Casey Cavaliers 46.4

Keilor Thunder Total (over) Casey Cavaliers
52.6%
O 42.5
66.7%
47.4%
O 43.5
66.7%
42.1%
O 44.5среднее
66.7%
42.1%
O 45.5
55.6%
2nd half (Q3+Q4)

Points per game: Keilor Thunder 43.2 / Casey Cavaliers 41.3

Keilor Thunder Total (over) Casey Cavaliers
73.7%
O 40.5
44.4%
68.4%
O 41.5
33.3%
52.6%
O 42.5среднее
33.3%
36.8%
O 43.5
33.3%

Rest and schedule

Team freshness

Keilor Thunder
No recent matches
Casey Cavaliers
Back-to-back / no rest
  • Rest days: 1
  • Matches in 7 days: 2 (in 14: 2)

Rest and schedule density — from matches played in our database. For reference.

Totals and pace

Team scoring

Keilor Thunder
167.5 points/match (over 10)
  • Scores: 87.4
  • Concedes: 80.1
Casey Cavaliers
175.5 points/match (over 10)
  • Scores: 87.1
  • Concedes: 88.4
Total line: 179.5 · projection from form: 171.5 · Over in 30% of recent games

Average scoring and pace — from matches played in our database. For reference, not a prediction.

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Match center
Start 05.07.2026 00:00 UTC
Match center

Keilor Thunder - Casey Cavaliers

Form 5/4 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.42 Fonbet · line only
1 1.50 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 152.5 1.85 Fonbet · line only
Over 153.5 1.85 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet Leon
1.90 52.6% —
1.80 55.6% —
1.85 54.1% —
1.85 54.1% —
1.85 54.1% —
1.85 54.1% —
1.85 54.1% —
1.85 54.1% —
1.80 55.6% 1.90 52.6%
1.90 52.6% —
1.85 54.1% 1.94 51.6%
1.85 54.1% —
1.85 54.1% —
1.85 54.1% —
1.85 54.1% —
1.85 54.1% —

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 74.5 1.80 55.6%
Over 75.5 1.80 55.6%
Over 76.5 1.90 52.6%
Over 152.5 1.85 54.1%
Over 153.5 1.85 54.1%
Over 154.5 1.85 54.1%
Over 155.5 1.82 55.0%
Over 156.5 1.85 54.1%
Over 157.5 1.82 55.0%
Over 158.5 1.82 55.0%
Over 159.5 1.85 54.1%
Over 177.5 1.85 54.1%
Over 178.5 1.82 55.0%
Over 179.5 1.82 55.0%
Over 180.5 1.82 55.0%
Over 181.5 1.85 54.1%
Over 182.5 1.82 55.0%
Over 184.5 1.82 55.0%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Fonbet Leon
1.50 66.7% 1.61 62.1%
2.42 41.3% 2.39 41.8%
Match center
Keilor Thunder
W W W W L
14.06 00:30 UTC Australia: NBL 1 South - Women
Keilor Thunder 84:73 Casey CavaliersCasey Cavaliers
13.06 05:00 UTC Australia: NBL 1 South - Women
Keilor Thunder 82:63 Sandringkhem Seybers (Zh)Sandringkhem Seybers (Zh)
05.06 06:30 UTC Australia: NBL 1 South - Women
Keilor Thunder 81:73 Ballarat (Zh)Ballarat (Zh)
30.05 05:00 UTC Australia: NBL 1 South - Women
Keilor Thunder 82:80 Melburn Taygers (Zh)Melburn Taygers (Zh)
24.05 00:00 UTC Australia: NBL 1 South - Women
Keilor Thunder 90:95 Dandenong Reyndzhers (Zh)Dandenong Reyndzhers (Zh)
4 Wins
1 Losses
83.8 Scored
76.8 Conceded
80% Win percentage
Casey Cavaliers
L L L W
04.07 05:30 UTC Australia: NBL 1 South - Women
Casey Cavaliers 91:105 Kilsayt Kobras (Zh)
14.06 00:30 UTC Australia: NBL 1 South - Women
Casey Cavaliers 73:84 Keilor ThunderKeilor Thunder
13.06 05:30 UTC Australia: NBL 1 South - Women
Casey Cavaliers 78:95 Ballarat (Zh)Ballarat (Zh)
05.06 06:30 UTC Australia: NBL 1 South - Women
Casey Cavaliers 83:70 Melburn Taygers (Zh)Melburn Taygers (Zh)
1 Wins
3 Losses
81.3 Scored
88.5 Conceded
25% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyKeilor Thunder - Casey Cavaliers

Keilor Thunder
1 matches total
Casey Cavaliers
Keilor Thunder: 1 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Casey Cavaliers: 0 (0%)
Biggest win Keilor Thunder 84:73 (14.06 00:30 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 157 goals (84:73, 14.06 00:30 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

14.06 00:30 UTC Australia: NBL 1 South - Women
Keilor Thunder
84:73
Casey Cavaliers