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Australia. NBL 1
Australia. NBL 1
03.07.2026 08:00 UTC Match prediction
03.07.2026 08:00 UTC
Finished

Australia. NBL 1

Khobart - Melbourne Tigers (w)

Basketball
Khobart
Khobart
63 : 101
Finished
Melbourne Tigers (w)
Melbourne Tigers (w)
Match signals

Two independent model estimates. Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

💎 «Value»

1Khobart — odds 2.08 · edge +13.9% · 3 bookies

The model rates the probability higher than the price implies. Elevated risk/variance; the signal is not confirmed on a large sample.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Khobart - Melbourne Tigers (w) July 3, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Melbourne Tigers (w). We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (market consensus): 1 2.34 / 2 1.63

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 4.1%
1 41.1%
2 58.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Basketball stats

Head-to-head and team form

Head-to-head

5Wins1
83.3%Win %16.7%
90.2Points per game86.2
123.0Offensive rating125.5
117.6Defensive rating131.3
4.0Point differential-4.0
46.5Assists46.5
118.5Rebounds98.0
35.2%3-pointers, %33.8%

Team form

Khobart
Overall LLLLL Net -6.8
Home LLW Net +4.4
Away LLL Net -18.0
Melbourne Tigers (w)
Overall WWLLW Net +7.9
Home WLW Net +10.7
Away WLW Net +5.1

Team stats

Khobart Overall · Home/Away Melbourne Tigers (w)
38.9%H 55.6% · A 22.2%Win %61.1%H 66.7% · A 55.6%
-6.8H 4.4 · A -18.0Point differential7.9H 10.7 · A 5.1
92.6H 93.3 · A 91.8Points per game93.9H 92.3 · A 95.6
95.9H 91.1 · A 100.8Conceded90.0H 87.0 · A 93.0
49.6%H 48.4% · A 50.7%FG, %52.7%H 54.7% · A 50.8%
55.6H 55.6 · A 55.61st half38.9H 55.6 · A 22.2
79.4H 79.3 · A 79.6Pace76.3H 73.6 · A 79.1
116.6H 115.6 · A 117.6Offensive rating122.9H 128.4 · A 117.9
120.9H 119.8 · A 121.9Defensive rating117.8H 123.1 · A 113.0

Team totals distribution

Over 70.5 - 100.5

Khobart Total (over) Melbourne Tigers (w)
92.6 Points per game 93.9
50.0%
O 89.5
61.1%
50.0%
O 90.5
55.6%
50.0%
O 91.5
55.6%
50.0%
O 92.5
50.0%
50.0%
O 93.5среднее
44.4%
38.9%
O 94.5
44.4%
38.9%
O 95.5
44.4%
38.9%
O 96.5
38.9%

Over 101.5 - 130.5

Khobart Total (over) Melbourne Tigers (w)
11.1%
O 105.5
27.8%
11.1%
O 106.5
22.2%
5.6%
O 107.5
22.2%
5.6%
O 108.5
22.2%
5.6%
O 109.5
5.6%
5.6%
O 110.5
5.6%
5.6%
O 111.5
5.6%
5.6%
O 112.5
5.6%

Points by period

1st half (Q1+Q2)

Points per game: Khobart 46.2 / Melbourne Tigers (w) 46.4

Khobart Total (over) Melbourne Tigers (w)
66.7%
O 44.5
50.0%
61.1%
O 45.5
50.0%
61.1%
O 46.5среднее
44.4%
50.0%
O 47.5
38.9%
2nd half (Q3+Q4)

Points per game: Khobart 46.4 / Melbourne Tigers (w) 47.5

Khobart Total (over) Melbourne Tigers (w)
61.1%
O 45.5
61.1%
55.6%
O 46.5среднее
50.0%
38.9%
O 47.5
50.0%
38.9%
O 48.5
44.4%

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Match center
Start 03.07.2026 08:00 UTC
Match center

Khobart - Melbourne Tigers (w)

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.59 market consensus · line only
1 2.27 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 177.5 1.94 market consensus · line only
Over 178.5 1.84 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
1.88 53.2% —
1.84 54.4% —
1.84 54.4% —
1.83 54.6% —
— 1.89 52.9%
1.83 54.6% —
1.83 54.6% 1.80 55.6%
— 1.81 55.3%
1.83 54.6% —
1.83 54.6% 1.90 52.6%
1.79 55.9% —
1.83 54.6% 1.87 53.5%
1.83 54.6% 1.84 54.4%
1.83 54.6% —

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Leon
Over 177.5 — — 1.94 51.6%
Over 178.5 1.81 55.3% 1.82 55.0% 1.90 52.6%
Under 177.5 — — 1.87 53.5%
Under 178.5 1.86 53.8% 1.88 53.2% 1.90 52.6%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Leon
2.23 44.8% 2.25 44.4% 2.34 42.7%
1.56 64.1% 1.57 63.7% 1.63 61.4%
Match center
Khobart
L L L W L
14.06 02:00 UTC Australia: NBL 1 South
Khobart 88:97 RingvudRingvud
13.06 08:00 UTC Australia: NBL 1 South
Khobart 102:106 FrankstonFrankston
30.05 07:30 UTC Australia: NBL 1 South
Khobart 94:99 Northern TasmaniaNorthern Tasmania
24.05 02:00 UTC Australia: NBL 1 South
Khobart 98:94 BallaratBallarat
23.05 08:00 UTC Australia: NBL 1 South
Khobart 65:108 Eltkhem
1 Wins
4 Losses
89.4 Scored
100.8 Conceded
20% Win percentage
Melbourne Tigers (w)
W L L W W
13.06 08:00 UTC Australia: NBL 1 South
Melbourne Tigers (w) 77:63 Eltkhem
05.06 08:30 UTC Australia: NBL 1 South
Melbourne Tigers (w) 75:83 Casey CavaliersCasey Cavaliers
31.05 02:30 UTC Australia: NBL 1 South
Melbourne Tigers (w) 93:95 NunavadingNunavading
30.05 07:00 UTC Australia: NBL 1 South
Melbourne Tigers (w) 95:80 Keilor ThunderKeilor Thunder
23.05 07:30 UTC Australia: NBL 1 South
Melbourne Tigers (w) 95:83 KilsitKilsit
3 Wins
2 Losses
87.0 Scored
80.8 Conceded
60% Win percentage