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Australia. NBL 1
Australia. NBL 1
04.07.2026 07:30 UTC Match prediction
04.07.2026 07:30 UTC
Finished

Australia. NBL 1

Kilsyth Cobras - Casey Cavaliers

Basketball
Kilsyth Cobras
Kilsyth Cobras
105 : 86
Finished
Casey Cavaliers
Casey Cavaliers

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Kilsyth Cobras - Casey Cavaliers July 4, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Kilsyth Cobras. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (market consensus): 1 1.83 / 2 2.02

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 4.1%
1 52.5%
2 47.5%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Basketball stats

Head-to-head and team form

Head-to-head

4Wins2
66.7%Win %33.3%
79.0Points per game74.3
125.3Offensive rating94.0
117.9Defensive rating99.9
4.7Point differential-4.7
49.5Assists45.0
111.5Rebounds106.0
33.5%3-pointers, %43.2%

Team form

Kilsyth Cobras
Overall WWWLL Net +1.2
Home WL Net +11.5
Away WWLL Net -8.0
Casey Cavaliers
Overall WWLLW Net +7.9
Home WLW Net +10.7
Away WLW Net +5.1

Team stats

Kilsyth Cobras Overall · Home/Away Casey Cavaliers
58.8%H 62.5% · A 55.6%Win %61.1%H 66.7% · A 55.6%
1.2H 11.5 · A -8.0Point differential7.9H 10.7 · A 5.1
89.8H 93.9 · A 86.2Points per game93.9H 92.3 · A 95.6
89.2H 88.1 · A 90.2Conceded90.0H 87.0 · A 93.0
48.7%H 48.9% · A 48.4%FG, %52.7%H 54.7% · A 50.8%
58.8H 62.5 · A 55.61st half38.9H 55.6 · A 22.2
79.4H 79.5 · A 79.4Pace76.3H 73.6 · A 79.1
113.0H 113.8 · A 112.3Offensive rating122.9H 128.4 · A 117.9
112.3H 113.0 · A 111.6Defensive rating117.8H 123.1 · A 113.0

Team totals distribution

Over 70.5 - 100.5

Kilsyth Cobras Total (over) Casey Cavaliers
89.8 Points per game 93.9
70.6%
O 88.5
66.7%
64.7%
O 89.5
61.1%
58.8%
O 90.5
55.6%
58.8%
O 91.5srednee
55.6%
58.8%
O 92.5
50.0%
52.9%
O 93.5
44.4%
52.9%
O 94.5
44.4%
41.2%
O 95.5
44.4%

Over 101.5 - 130.5

Kilsyth Cobras Total (over) Casey Cavaliers
0.0%
O 105.5
27.8%
0.0%
O 106.5
22.2%
0.0%
O 107.5
22.2%
0.0%
O 108.5
22.2%
0.0%
O 109.5
5.6%
0.0%
O 110.5
5.6%
0.0%
O 111.5
5.6%
0.0%
O 112.5
5.6%

Points by period

1st half (Q1+Q2)

Points per game: Kilsyth Cobras 45.1 / Casey Cavaliers 46.4

Kilsyth Cobras Total (over) Casey Cavaliers
52.9%
O 44.5
50.0%
52.9%
O 45.5srednee
50.0%
41.2%
O 46.5
44.4%
41.2%
O 47.5
38.9%
2nd half (Q3+Q4)

Points per game: Kilsyth Cobras 44.1 / Casey Cavaliers 47.5

Kilsyth Cobras Total (over) Casey Cavaliers
52.9%
O 44.5
61.1%
52.9%
O 45.5srednee
61.1%
41.2%
O 46.5
50.0%
41.2%
O 47.5
50.0%

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Match center
Start 04.07.2026 07:30 UTC
Match center

Kilsyth Cobras - Casey Cavaliers

Form 5/4 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.02 market consensus · line only
1 1.83 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 181.5 1.90 market consensus · line only
Under 181.5 1.90 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Leon
1.90 52.6%
1.90 52.6%
1.90 52.6%
1.90 52.6%
1.90 52.6%
1.90 52.6%

Total

Outcome Leon
Over 181.5 1.90 52.6%
Under 181.5 1.90 52.6%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Leon
1.83 54.6%
2.02 49.5%
Match center
Kilsyth Cobras
W L L L L
02.07 08:00 UTC Australia: NBL 1 South
Kilsyth Cobras 95:87 RingvudRingvud
14.06 04:00 UTC Australia: NBL 1 South
Kilsyth Cobras 78:95 Bendigo BreyvsBendigo Breyvs
30.05 07:30 UTC Australia: NBL 1 South
Kilsyth Cobras 93:96 NoksNoks
24.05 02:30 UTC Australia: NBL 1 South
Kilsyth Cobras 64:110 Sandringkhem SeybersSandringkhem Seybers
23.05 07:30 UTC Australia: NBL 1 South
Kilsyth Cobras 83:95 Melburn TaygersMelburn Taygers
1 Wins
4 Losses
82.6 Scored
96.6 Conceded
20% Win percentage
Casey Cavaliers
L W W W
14.06 02:30 UTC Australia: NBL 1 South
Casey Cavaliers 67:78 Keilor ThunderKeilor Thunder
13.06 07:30 UTC Australia: NBL 1 South
Casey Cavaliers 117:106 BallaratBallarat
05.06 08:30 UTC Australia: NBL 1 South
Casey Cavaliers 83:75 Melburn TaygersMelburn Taygers
23.05 08:30 UTC Australia: NBL 1 South
Casey Cavaliers 109:85 Maunt-GambirMaunt-Gambir
3 Wins
1 Losses
94.0 Scored
86.0 Conceded
75% Win percentage