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Australia. NBL 1
Australia. NBL 1
30.05.2026 07:00 UTC Match prediction
30.05.2026 07:00 UTC
Finished

Australia. NBL 1

Melbourne Tigers - Keilor Thunder

Basketball
Melbourne Tigers
Melbourne Tigers
95 : 80
Finished
Keilor Thunder
Keilor Thunder

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Melbourne Tigers - Keilor Thunder May 30, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Melbourne Tigers. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.01 / 2 11.00

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.1%
1 91.6%
2 8.4%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Team form

Melbourne Tigers
4-1LWWWW
points for 91.3points against 100.1
Keilor Thunder
8-2WWLWWWWWLW
points for 86.8points against 74.3

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

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Match center
Start 30.05.2026 07:00 UTC
Match center

Melbourne Tigers - Keilor Thunder

Array

Form 1/1 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Betting snapshot
1X2
1 1.01 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 140.5 1.82 Fonbet · line only
Over 141.5 1.82 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
2.07 48.3%
2.25 44.4%
1.72 58.1%
2.60 38.5%
2.25 44.4%
2.40 41.7%
1.82 55.0%
1.80 55.6%
1.48 67.6%
1.35 74.1%
2.50 40.0%
2.25 44.4%
2.02 49.5%
1.85 54.1%
1.70 58.8%
1.55 64.5%
2.85 35.1%
2.50 40.0%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 140.5 1.82 55.0%
Over 141.5 1.82 55.0%
Over 142.5 1.82 55.0%
Over 143.5 1.82 55.0%
Over 144.5 1.85 54.1%
Over 145.5 1.85 54.1%
Over 146.5 1.70 58.8%
Over 147.5 1.70 58.8%
Over 148.5 1.68 59.5%
Over 149.5 1.78 56.2%
Over 150.5 1.88 53.2%
Over 151.5 2.00 50.0%
Over 152.5 2.10 47.6%
Over 153.5 1.65 60.6%
Over 154.5 1.72 58.1%
Over 155.5 1.65 60.6%
Over 156.5 1.52 65.8%
Over 157.5 1.65 60.6%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Fonbet
1.01 99.0%
11.00 9.1%
Match center
Melbourne Tigers
W
23.05 07:30 UTC Australia: NBL 1 South
Melbourne Tigers 95:83 KilsitKilsit
1 Wins
0 Losses
95.0 Scored
83.0 Conceded
100% Win percentage
Keilor Thunder
L
24.05 02:00 UTC Australia: NBL 1 South
Keilor Thunder 90:95 DandenongDandenong
0 Wins
1 Losses
90.0 Scored
95.0 Conceded
0% Win percentage