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Australia. NBL 1
Australia. NBL 1
04.07.2026 08:30 UTC Match prediction
04.07.2026 08:30 UTC
Finished

Australia. NBL 1

Mount Gambier Pioneers - Bendigo Braves

Basketball
Mount Gambier Pioneers
Mount Gambier Pioneers
88 : 70
Finished
Bendigo Braves
Bendigo Braves
Match signals

Two independent model estimates. Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

🎯 «Confident pick»

1Mount Gambier Pioneers — 80%

The most likely outcome per the model. Reliability, NOT a profit guarantee.

💎 «Value»

1Mount Gambier Pioneers — odds 1.40 · edge +8.8% · 4 bookies

The model rates the probability higher than the price implies. Elevated risk/variance; the signal is not confirmed on a large sample.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Mount Gambier Pioneers - Bendigo Braves July 4, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Mount Gambier Pioneers. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.01 / 2 11.00

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.1%
1 91.6%
2 8.4%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Basketball stats

Head-to-head and team form

Head-to-head

6Wins1
85.7%Win %14.3%
91.4Points per game74.9
111.1Offensive rating79.3
91.0Defensive rating96.9
16.6Point differential-16.6
54.0Assists33.8
115.3Rebounds96.4
35.9%3-pointers, %36.6%

Team form

Mount Gambier Pioneers
Overall LLLLL Net -15.9
Home LLL Net -19.8
Away LLL Net -12.4
Bendigo Braves
Overall LLLLW Net -11.4
Home LLW Net -2.2
Away LLL Net -23.0

Team stats

Mount Gambier Pioneers Overall · Home/Away Bendigo Braves
26.3%H 22.2% · A 30.0%Win %38.9%H 50.0% · A 25.0%
-15.9H -19.8 · A -12.4Point differential-11.4H -2.2 · A -23.0
90.3H 88.2 · A 92.1Points per game85.3H 85.7 · A 84.9
98.2H 98.1 · A 98.3Conceded91.1H 86.8 · A 96.4
49.6%H 49.7% · A 49.5%FG, %49.9%H 49.6% · A 50.3%
42.1H 55.6 · A 30.01st half44.4H 50.0 · A 37.5
79.2H 77.3 · A 80.9Pace76.6H 76.9 · A 76.3
113.2H 116.4 · A 110.5Offensive rating111.4H 111.4 · A 111.4
123.2H 126.6 · A 120.2Defensive rating118.9H 118.8 · A 118.9

Team totals distribution

Over 70.5 - 100.5

Mount Gambier Pioneers Total (over) Bendigo Braves
90.3 Points per game 85.3
73.7%
O 84.5
44.4%
57.9%
O 85.5
44.4%
52.6%
O 86.5
38.9%
52.6%
O 87.5srednee
38.9%
52.6%
O 88.5
38.9%
52.6%
O 89.5
33.3%
52.6%
O 90.5
33.3%
47.4%
O 91.5
27.8%

Over 101.5 - 130.5

Mount Gambier Pioneers Total (over) Bendigo Braves
5.3%
O 102.5
0.0%
5.3%
O 103.5
0.0%
5.3%
O 104.5
0.0%
5.3%
O 105.5
0.0%
5.3%
O 106.5
0.0%
5.3%
O 107.5
0.0%
5.3%
O 108.5
0.0%
5.3%
O 109.5
0.0%

Points by period

1st half (Q1+Q2)

Points per game: Mount Gambier Pioneers 49.2 / Bendigo Braves 43.9

Mount Gambier Pioneers Total (over) Bendigo Braves
78.9%
O 45.5
27.8%
68.4%
O 46.5srednee
27.8%
63.2%
O 47.5
22.2%
57.9%
O 48.5
22.2%
2nd half (Q3+Q4)

Points per game: Mount Gambier Pioneers 41.1 / Bendigo Braves 41.4

Mount Gambier Pioneers Total (over) Bendigo Braves
42.1%
O 40.5
55.6%
36.8%
O 41.5srednee
55.6%
36.8%
O 42.5
44.4%
36.8%
O 43.5
38.9%

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Match center
Start 04.07.2026 08:30 UTC
Match center

Mount Gambier Pioneers - Bendigo Braves

Form 5/4 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.96 market consensus · line only
1 1.01 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 156.5 1.50 Fonbet · line only
Over 157.5 1.65 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
1.84 54.4% 1.82 55.0% —
1.83 54.6% 1.88 53.2% —
— — 1.75 57.1%
— — 2.05 48.8%
— — 2.15 46.5%
— — 2.02 49.5%
— — 1.87 53.5%
— — 1.75 57.1%
— — 2.17 46.1%
— — 2.02 49.5%
— — 2.35 42.6%
— — 2.10 47.6%
— — 1.90 52.6%
— — 1.65 60.6%
— — 1.83 54.6%
— — 1.55 64.5%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
Over 156.5 — — 1.50 66.7%
Over 157.5 — — 1.65 60.6%
Over 158.5 — — 1.80 55.6%
Over 159.5 — — 1.87 53.5%
Over 160.5 — — 2.20 45.5%
Over 161.5 — — 1.78 56.2%
Over 162.5 — — 1.80 55.6%
Over 163.5 — — 1.63 61.4%
Over 164.5 — — 1.77 56.5%
Over 165.5 — — 1.90 52.6%
Over 166.5 — — 1.95 51.3%
Over 167.5 — — 2.25 44.4%
Over 180.5 1.83 54.6% 1.84 54.4% —
Over 181.5 1.81 55.3% — —
Under 180.5 1.83 54.6% 1.86 53.8% —
Under 181.5 1.86 53.8% — —

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Leon
1.34 74.6% 1.36 73.5% 1.01 99.0% 1.40 71.4%
2.90 34.5% 2.90 34.5% 11.00 9.1% 3.09 32.4%
Match center
Mount Gambier Pioneers
L L L L L
03.07 08:30 UTC Australia: NBL 1 South
Mount Gambier Pioneers 76:97 NoksNoks
14.06 03:00 UTC Australia: NBL 1 South
Mount Gambier Pioneers 75:77 GilongGilong
12.06 08:30 UTC Australia: NBL 1 South
Mount Gambier Pioneers 91:104 Northern TasmaniaNorthern Tasmania
29.05 08:30 UTC Australia: NBL 1 South
Mount Gambier Pioneers 95:97 RingvudRingvud
23.05 08:30 UTC Australia: NBL 1 South
Mount Gambier Pioneers 85:109 Casey CavaliersCasey Cavaliers
0 Wins
5 Losses
84.4 Scored
96.8 Conceded
0% Win percentage
Bendigo Braves
W W L L
14.06 04:00 UTC Australia: NBL 1 South
Bendigo Braves 95:78 KilsitKilsit
30.05 07:30 UTC Australia: NBL 1 South
Bendigo Braves 91:84 UeverliUeverli
24.05 02:00 UTC Australia: NBL 1 South
Bendigo Braves 75:90 Daymond Uelley
23.05 07:30 UTC Australia: NBL 1 South
Bendigo Braves 77:87 FrankstonFrankston
2 Wins
2 Losses
84.5 Scored
84.8 Conceded
50% Win percentage