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Australia. NBL 1
Australia. NBL 1
23.05.2026 08:30 UTC Match prediction
23.05.2026 08:30 UTC
Finished

Australia. NBL 1

Mount Gambier Pioneers - Casey Cavaliers

Basketball
Mount Gambier Pioneers
Mount Gambier Pioneers
85 : 109
Finished
Casey Cavaliers
Casey Cavaliers

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Mount Gambier Pioneers - Casey Cavaliers May 23, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Casey Cavaliers. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 11.00 / 2 1.01

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.1%
1 8.4%
2 91.6%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Team form

Mount Gambier Pioneers
1-4LLLLW
points for 85.3points against 91.1
Casey Cavaliers
6-4LWWWLLWWWL
points for 88.1points against 83.0

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

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Match center
Start 23.05.2026 08:30 UTC
Match center

Mount Gambier Pioneers - Casey Cavaliers

Array

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.01 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 100.5 1.95 Fonbet · line only
Over 159.5 1.50 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
2.70 37.0%
1.88 53.2%
1.45 69.0%
2.35 42.6%
1.82 55.0%
2.65 37.7%
1.75 57.1%
1.95 51.3%
2.15 46.5%
1.42 70.4%
2.25 44.4%
2.07 48.3%
1.90 52.6%
1.75 57.1%
1.63 61.4%
1.50 66.7%
1.42 70.4%
1.42 70.4%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 100.5 1.95 51.3%
Over 159.5 1.50 66.7%
Over 160.5 1.65 60.6%
Over 161.5 1.82 55.0%
Over 162.5 2.00 50.0%
Over 163.5 2.20 45.5%
Over 164.5 2.05 48.8%
Over 165.5 1.85 54.1%
Over 166.5 2.10 47.6%
Over 167.5 2.45 40.8%
Over 168.5 1.85 54.1%
Over 169.5 1.92 52.1%
Over 170.5 2.10 47.6%
Over 171.5 2.30 43.5%
Over 172.5 2.10 47.6%
Over 173.5 2.15 46.5%
Over 174.5 1.90 52.6%
Over 175.5 2.02 49.5%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Fonbet
11.00 9.1%
1.01 99.0%