Match center
Start
04.07.2026 07:30 UTC
04.07.2026 07:30 UTC
Finished
Australia. NBL 1
Northern Tasmania - Melbourne Tigers
92
:
101
Finished
Match signals
Two independent model estimates. Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
🔒 «Formula lock»
2Melbourne Tigers — 78%
The formula agrees with the market favourite in the moderate-odds zone — historically the most profitable slice (basketball/football/hockey). NOT a profit guarantee.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Northern Tasmania - Melbourne Tigers July 4, 2026
Basketball math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite Fonbet: Melbourne Tigers. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- Win odds (Fonbet): 1 10.00 / 2 1.01
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner
bookmaker margin 9.0%
1
9.2%
2
90.8%
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Basketball stats
Head-to-head and team form
Team form
Northern Tasmania
Overall
LWWWW
Net -17.4
Home
LWW
Net -33.3
Away
WWL
Net -1.6
Melbourne Tigers
Overall
WWWWW
Net +23.5
Home
WWL
Net +23.6
Away
WWW
Net +23.4
Team stats
Northern Tasmania
Overall · Home/Away
Melbourne Tigers
33.3%H 22.2% · A 44.4%Win %79.0%H 77.8% · A 80.0%
-17.4H -33.3 · A -1.6Point differential23.5H 23.6 · A 23.4
91.3H 86.3 · A 96.3Points per game91.7H 94.1 · A 89.5
100.1H 103.0 · A 97.1Conceded80.0H 82.3 · A 77.8
49.1%H 47.0% · A 51.1%FG, %52.7%H 54.7% · A 50.9%
22.2H 22.2 · A 22.21st half79.0H 77.8 · A 80.0
78.0H 76.4 · A 79.7Pace77.3H 76.3 · A 78.2
117.0H 119.9 · A 114.3Offensive rating117.7H 119.1 · A 116.4
128.2H 131.4 · A 125.2Defensive rating102.6H 103.9 · A 101.5
Team totals distribution
Over 70.5 - 100.5
Northern Tasmania
Total (over)
Melbourne Tigers
91.3
Points per game
91.7
61.1%
O 87.5
68.4%
61.1%
O 88.5
63.2%
55.6%
O 89.5
63.2%
50.0%
O 90.5
63.2%
50.0%
O 91.5srednee
63.2%
44.4%
O 92.5
63.2%
38.9%
O 93.5
57.9%
33.3%
O 94.5
57.9%
Over 101.5 - 130.5
Northern Tasmania
Total (over)
Melbourne Tigers
5.6%
O 105.5
5.3%
5.6%
O 106.5
5.3%
5.6%
O 107.5
5.3%
5.6%
O 108.5
0.0%
5.6%
O 109.5
0.0%
5.6%
O 110.5
0.0%
5.6%
O 111.5
0.0%
5.6%
O 112.5
0.0%
Points by period
1st half (Q1+Q2)
Points per game: Northern Tasmania 45.9 / Melbourne Tigers 47.0
Northern Tasmania
Total (over)
Melbourne Tigers
61.1%
O 44.5
57.9%
55.6%
O 45.5
47.4%
44.4%
O 46.5srednee
47.4%
27.8%
O 47.5
42.1%
2nd half (Q3+Q4)
Points per game: Northern Tasmania 45.4 / Melbourne Tigers 44.7
Northern Tasmania
Total (over)
Melbourne Tigers
61.1%
O 43.5
63.2%
50.0%
O 44.5
52.6%
50.0%
O 45.5srednee
47.4%
44.4%
O 46.5
47.4%
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Match center
Northern Tasmania - Melbourne Tigers
Form
5/5
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
0
model / bookmakers
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
1.01
Fonbet · line only
1
10.00
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 125.5
1.50
Fonbet · line only
Over 126.5
1.65
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Handicap
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | 1.81 55.3% | — | |
| 1.84 54.4% | 1.80 55.6% | — | |
| 1.83 54.6% | — | — | |
| — | — | 1.55 64.5% | |
| — | — | 1.50 66.7% | |
| — | — | 1.67 59.9% | |
| — | — | 1.85 54.1% | |
| — | — | 2.08 48.1% | |
| — | — | 2.35 42.6% | |
| — | — | 1.87 53.5% | |
| — | — | 2.40 41.7% | |
| — | — | 1.55 64.5% | |
| — | 1.90 52.6% | — | |
| 1.83 54.6% | 1.90 52.6% | — | |
| — | — | 1.53 65.4% | |
| 1.83 54.6% | — | — |
Total
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 125.5 | — | — | 1.50 66.7% |
| Over 126.5 | — | — | 1.65 60.6% |
| Over 127.5 | — | — | 1.77 56.5% |
| Over 128.5 | — | — | 2.00 50.0% |
| Over 129.5 | — | — | 1.95 51.3% |
| Over 130.5 | — | — | 1.80 55.6% |
| Over 131.5 | — | — | 1.95 51.3% |
| Over 132.5 | — | — | 2.15 46.5% |
| Over 133.5 | — | — | 1.57 63.7% |
| Over 134.5 | — | — | 1.70 58.8% |
| Over 180.5 | 1.84 54.4% | 1.83 54.6% | — |
| Over 182.5 | 1.84 54.4% | 1.84 54.4% | — |
| Under 180.5 | 1.83 54.6% | 1.87 53.5% | — |
| Under 182.5 | 1.83 54.6% | 1.86 53.8% | — |
Outcome (1X2)
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.10 19.6% | 4.30 23.3% | 10.00 10.0% | 5.20 19.2% | |
| 1.12 89.3% | 1.18 84.8% | 1.01 99.0% | 1.18 84.8% |
Match center
Northern Tasmania
W
W
W
L
L
Northern Tasmania
117:99
Ballarat
Ballarat
Northern Tasmania
104:91
Maunt-Gambir
Maunt-Gambir
Northern Tasmania
99:94
Khobart
Khobart
Northern Tasmania
85:96
Frankston
Frankston
Northern Tasmania
92:113
Gilong
Gilong
3
Wins
2
Losses
99.4
Scored
98.6
Conceded
60%
Win percentage
Melbourne Tigers
W
W
L
L
W
Melbourne Tigers
101:63
Khobart
Khobart
Melbourne Tigers
77:63
Eltkhem
Melbourne Tigers
75:83
Casey Cavaliers
Casey Cavaliers
Melbourne Tigers
93:95
Nunavading
Nunavading
Melbourne Tigers
95:80
Keilor Thunder
Keilor Thunder
3
Wins
2
Losses
88.2
Scored
76.8
Conceded
60%
Win percentage
Match center
Full head-to-head historyNorthern Tasmania - Melbourne Tigers
Northern Tasmania
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals