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Australia. NBL 1
Australia. NBL 1
04.07.2026 08:45 UTC Match prediction
04.07.2026 08:45 UTC
Finished

Australia. NBL 1

West Adelaide Bearcats - Central Districts Lions

Basketball
West Adelaide Bearcats
West Adelaide Bearcats
89 : 104
Finished
Central Districts Lions
Central Districts Lions
Match signals

Two independent model estimates. Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

💎 «Value»

1West Adelaide Bearcats — odds 2.15 · edge +4.7% · 3 bookies

The model rates the probability higher than the price implies. Elevated risk/variance; the signal is not confirmed on a large sample.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction West Adelaide Bearcats - Central Districts Lions July 4, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Central Districts Lions. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (market consensus): 1 1.98 / 2 1.86

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 4.3%
1 48.4%
2 51.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Basketball stats

Head-to-head and team form

Head-to-head

7Wins6
53.9%Win %46.2%
86.0Points per game87.2
102.7Offensive rating104.0
104.2Defensive rating102.5
-1.2Point differential1.2
56.6Assists45.8
116.3Rebounds127.6
31.9%3-pointers, %33.5%

Team form

West Adelaide Bearcats
Overall WWLWL Net -3.6
Home WWL Net +9.8
Away WLL Net -17.0
Central Districts Lions
Overall WLWWL Net -4.0
Home LW Net -7.8
Away WWWL Net -0.3

Team stats

West Adelaide Bearcats Overall · Home/Away Central Districts Lions
37.5%H 50.0% · A 25.0%Win %50.0%H 37.5% · A 62.5%
-3.6H 9.8 · A -17.0Point differential-4.0H -7.8 · A -0.3
91.0H 92.6 · A 89.4Points per game90.5H 92.3 · A 88.8
92.8H 87.8 · A 97.9Conceded92.5H 96.1 · A 88.9
51.5%H 52.5% · A 50.5%FG, %53.6%H 50.3% · A 57.0%
37.5H 50.0 · A 25.01st half50.0H 37.5 · A 62.5
77.8H 78.4 · A 77.3Pace72.3H 74.6 · A 70.0
117.0H 115.1 · A 118.9Offensive rating124.5H 120.2 · A 129.1
119.3H 117.4 · A 121.3Defensive rating127.3H 122.9 · A 132.0

Team totals distribution

Over 70.5 - 100.5

West Adelaide Bearcats Total (over) Central Districts Lions
91.0 Points per game 90.5
50.0%
O 87.5
56.3%
43.8%
O 88.5
50.0%
43.8%
O 89.5
50.0%
37.5%
O 90.5srednee
43.8%
37.5%
O 91.5
37.5%
37.5%
O 92.5
25.0%
37.5%
O 93.5
25.0%
37.5%
O 94.5
25.0%

Over 101.5 - 130.5

West Adelaide Bearcats Total (over) Central Districts Lions
12.5%
O 111.5
18.8%
12.5%
O 112.5
18.8%
12.5%
O 113.5
6.3%
12.5%
O 114.5
6.3%
12.5%
O 115.5
6.3%
12.5%
O 116.5
0.0%
12.5%
O 117.5
0.0%
12.5%
O 118.5
0.0%

Points by period

1st half (Q1+Q2)

Points per game: West Adelaide Bearcats 45.4 / Central Districts Lions 46.7

West Adelaide Bearcats Total (over) Central Districts Lions
43.8%
O 44.5
62.5%
37.5%
O 45.5
50.0%
37.5%
O 46.5srednee
50.0%
37.5%
O 47.5
37.5%
2nd half (Q3+Q4)

Points per game: West Adelaide Bearcats 44.7 / Central Districts Lions 43.8

West Adelaide Bearcats Total (over) Central Districts Lions
56.3%
O 42.5
43.8%
50.0%
O 43.5
37.5%
50.0%
O 44.5srednee
37.5%
50.0%
O 45.5
37.5%

Clubs and venues

Team reference

West Adelaide Bearcats
  • Port Adelaidy
  • Founded in 1946
Central Districts Lions
No data

Reference data on clubs and venues: Wikidata.

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Match center
Start 04.07.2026 08:45 UTC
Match center

West Adelaide Bearcats - Central Districts Lions

Form 2/2 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.82 market consensus · line only
1 1.91 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 184.5 1.86 market consensus · line only
Over 186.5 1.85 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Leon
1.79 55.9% 1.80 55.6% —
1.83 54.6% 1.90 52.6% —
1.88 53.2% 1.90 52.6% —
1.83 54.6% 1.80 55.6% —
1.78 56.2% 1.80 55.6% 1.94 51.6%
1.83 54.6% 1.90 52.6% —
1.88 53.2% 1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6%
1.83 54.6% 1.81 55.3% —

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Leon
Over 184.5 1.83 54.6% 1.88 53.2% —
Over 186.5 1.81 55.3% 1.84 54.4% 1.90 52.6%
Under 184.5 1.83 54.6% 1.82 55.0% —
Under 186.5 1.86 53.8% 1.86 53.8% 1.90 52.6%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Leon
1.86 53.8% 1.90 52.6% 1.98 50.5%
1.81 55.3% 1.79 55.9% 1.86 53.8%
Match center
West Adelaide Bearcats
W L
13.06 08:45 UTC Australia: NBL1 Central
West Adelaide Bearcats 103:81 Istern MeveriksIstern Meveriks
31.05 02:15 UTC Australia: NBL1 Central
West Adelaide Bearcats 95:97 Woodville WarriorsWoodville Warriors
1 Wins
1 Losses
99.0 Scored
89.0 Conceded
50% Win percentage
Central Districts Lions
W L
13.06 08:45 UTC Australia: NBL1 Central
Central Districts Lions 90:87 North Adelaide RocketsNorth Adelaide Rockets
31.05 05:30 UTC Australia: NBL1 Central
Central Districts Lions 81:84 Styurt SeybrsStyurt Seybrs
1 Wins
1 Losses
85.5 Scored
85.5 Conceded
50% Win percentage