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Australia. NBL 1
Australia. NBL 1
04.07.2026 04:15 UTC Match prediction
04.07.2026 04:15 UTC
Finished

Australia. NBL 1

Hills Hornets (w) - Maitland Mustangs (Zh)

Basketball
Hills Hornets (w)
Hills Hornets (w)
101 : 80
Finished
Maitland Mustangs (Zh)
Maitland Mustangs (Zh)
Match signals

Two independent model estimates. Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

💎 «Value»

1Hills Hornets (w) — odds 2.02 · edge +8.4% · 3 bookies

The model rates the probability higher than the price implies. Elevated risk/variance; the signal is not confirmed on a large sample.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Hills Hornets (w) - Maitland Mustangs (Zh) July 4, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Hills Hornets (w). We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (market consensus): 1 1.82 / 2 2.04

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 4.0%
1 52.8%
2 47.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Basketball stats

Head-to-head and team form

Head-to-head

0Wins2
0.0%Win %100.0%
84.0Points per game95.0
111.0Offensive rating120.5
125.6Defensive rating106.6
-11.0Point differential11.0
31.5Assists52.5
96.0Rebounds112.5
30.0%3-pointers, %25.0%

Team form

Hills Hornets (w)
Overall WLWLW Net -13.1
Home WLLW Net -18.2
Away WL Net -6.6
Maitland Mustangs (Zh)
Overall WWWWL Net +16.4
Home WWWW Net +16.8
Away WL Net +16.0

Team stats

Hills Hornets (w) Overall · Home/Away Maitland Mustangs (Zh)
37.5%H 33.3% · A 42.9%Win %62.5%H 62.5% · A 62.5%
-13.1H -18.2 · A -6.6Point differential16.4H 16.8 · A 16.0
78.4H 77.6 · A 79.4Points per game88.0H 86.3 · A 89.8
84.9H 86.7 · A 82.7Conceded79.8H 77.9 · A 81.8
44.5%H 44.0% · A 45.1%FG, %51.9%H 50.8% · A 53.1%
25.0H 22.2 · A 28.61st half75.0H 62.5
75.2H 75.9 · A 74.3Pace75.9H 75.0 · A 76.7
103.7H 101.3 · A 107.1Offensive rating116.2H 118.3 · A 114.1
112.4H 109.8 · A 116.0Defensive rating105.4H 107.3 · A 103.5

Team totals distribution

Over 70.5 - 100.5

Hills Hornets (w) Total (over) Maitland Mustangs (Zh)
78.4 Points per game 88.0
43.8%
O 79.5
68.8%
37.5%
O 80.5
68.8%
37.5%
O 81.5
68.8%
31.3%
O 82.5
68.8%
31.3%
O 83.5srednee
68.8%
12.5%
O 84.5
68.8%
12.5%
O 85.5
56.3%
12.5%
O 86.5
50.0%

Over 101.5 - 130.5

Hills Hornets (w) Total (over) Maitland Mustangs (Zh)
6.3%
O 101.5
25.0%
6.3%
O 102.5
18.8%
6.3%
O 103.5
12.5%
6.3%
O 104.5
6.3%
0.0%
O 105.5
6.3%
0.0%
O 106.5
6.3%

Points by period

1st half (Q1+Q2)

Points per game: Hills Hornets (w) — / Maitland Mustangs (Zh) 46.6

Hills Hornets (w) Total (over) Maitland Mustangs (Zh)
37.5%
O 40.5
68.8%
31.3%
O 41.5
68.8%
25.0%
O 42.5
62.5%
12.5%
O 43.5srednee
56.3%
2nd half (Q3+Q4)

Points per game: Hills Hornets (w) 41.0 / Maitland Mustangs (Zh) 41.4

Hills Hornets (w) Total (over) Maitland Mustangs (Zh)
62.5%
O 40.5
62.5%
56.3%
O 41.5srednee
56.3%
43.8%
O 42.5
56.3%
18.8%
O 43.5
56.3%

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Match center
Start 04.07.2026 04:15 UTC
Match center

Hills Hornets (w) - Maitland Mustangs (Zh)

Form 2/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.99 market consensus · line only
1 1.77 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 147.5 1.81 market consensus · line only
Over 149.5 1.86 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Leon
1.79 55.9% 1.90 52.6% —
1.84 54.4% 1.83 54.6% 1.90 52.6%
— 1.90 52.6% —
1.88 53.2% — 1.90 52.6%
— 1.90 52.6% —
1.83 54.6% 1.87 53.5% 1.90 52.6%
— 1.81 55.3% —
1.78 56.2% — 1.90 52.6%
— 1.81 55.3% —
1.88 53.2% 1.80 55.6% —

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Leon
Over 147.5 1.81 55.3% — —
Over 149.5 1.84 54.4% 1.83 54.6% 1.90 52.6%
Under 147.5 1.86 53.8% — —
Under 149.5 1.83 54.6% 1.87 53.5% 1.90 52.6%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Leon
1.76 56.8% 1.73 57.8% 1.82 55.0%
1.92 52.1% 2.00 50.0% 2.04 49.0%
Match center
Hills Hornets (w)
L W
13.06 23:30 UTC Australia: NBL1 East Women
Hills Hornets (w) 78:104 Olberi Uodonga (Zh)Olberi Uodonga (Zh)
30.05 23:30 UTC Australia: NBL1 East Women
Hills Hornets (w) 102:63 Inner West BullsInner West Bulls
1 Wins
1 Losses
90.0 Scored
83.5 Conceded
50% Win percentage
Maitland Mustangs (Zh)
W W L L W
14.06 01:00 UTC Australia: NBL1 East Women
Maitland Mustangs (Zh) 111:71 Inner West BullsInner West Bulls
13.06 05:00 UTC Australia: NBL1 East Women
Maitland Mustangs (Zh) 79:69 Sydney CometsSydney Comets
30.05 05:00 UTC Australia: NBL1 East Women
Maitland Mustangs (Zh) 72:76 Norths Bears (Zh)Norths Bears (Zh)
24.05 01:00 UTC Australia: NBL1 East Women
Maitland Mustangs (Zh) 61:71 Manli Varringa (Zh)Manli Varringa (Zh)
23.05 05:00 UTC Australia: NBL1 East Women
Maitland Mustangs (Zh) 82:76 Khills Khornets
3 Wins
2 Losses
81.0 Scored
72.6 Conceded
60% Win percentage