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Australia. NBL 1
Australia. NBL 1
23.05.2026 05:00 UTC Match prediction
23.05.2026 05:00 UTC
Finished

Australia. NBL 1

Newcastle Falcons (w) - Illawarra Hawks Waratah

Basketball
Newcastle Falcons (w)
Newcastle Falcons (w)
76 : 64
Finished
Illawarra Hawks Waratah
Illawarra Hawks Waratah

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Newcastle Falcons (w) - Illawarra Hawks Waratah May 23, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Newcastle Falcons (w). We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.02 / 2 8.50

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 9.8%
1 89.3%
2 10.7%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Team form

Newcastle Falcons (w)
2-3LLWWL
points for 116.3points against 121.1
Illawarra Hawks Waratah
1-4WLLLL
points for 75.8points against 75.2

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

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Match center
Start 23.05.2026 05:00 UTC
Match center

Newcastle Falcons (w) - Illawarra Hawks Waratah

Array

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 8.50 Fonbet · line only
1 1.02 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 134.5 1.63 Fonbet · line only
Over 135.5 1.73 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
1.85 54.1%
1.78 56.2%
2.15 46.5%
2.25 44.4%
2.07 48.3%
1.88 53.2%
1.72 58.1%
1.57 63.7%
2.10 47.6%
1.90 52.6%
1.75 57.1%
1.62 61.7%
1.65 60.6%
1.53 65.4%
1.72 58.1%
1.60 62.5%
1.73 57.8%
1.62 61.7%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 90.5 1.82 55.0%
Over 134.5 1.63 61.4%
Over 135.5 1.73 57.8%
Over 136.5 1.85 54.1%
Over 137.5 1.95 51.3%
Over 138.5 1.58 63.3%
Over 139.5 1.58 63.3%
Over 140.5 1.85 54.1%
Over 141.5 1.78 56.2%
Over 142.5 2.30 43.5%
Over 143.5 2.30 43.5%
Over 144.5 2.17 46.1%
Over 145.5 1.92 52.1%
Over 146.5 2.00 50.0%
Over 147.5 2.13 47.0%
Over 148.5 1.93 51.8%
Over 149.5 2.05 48.8%
Over 150.5 2.02 49.5%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Fonbet
1.02 98.0%
8.50 11.8%