Match center
Start
04.07.2026 06:15 UTC
04.07.2026 06:15 UTC
Finished
Australia. NBL 1
Hills Hornets - Maitland Mustangs
H
Hills Hornets
82
:
72
Finished
M
Maitland Mustangs
Match signals
Two independent model estimates. Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
💎 «Value»
2Maitland Mustangs — odds 1.94 · edge +6.2% · 4 bookies
The model rates the probability higher than the price implies. Elevated risk/variance; the signal is not confirmed on a large sample.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Hills Hornets - Maitland Mustangs July 4, 2026
Basketball math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite Fonbet: Hills Hornets. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.04 / 2 6.70
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner
bookmaker margin 11.1%
1
86.6%
2
13.4%
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Basketball stats
Head-to-head and team form
Head-to-head
Team form
Hills Hornets
Overall
WLWLW
Net -13.1
Home
WLLW
Net -18.2
Away
WL
Net -6.6
Maitland Mustangs
Overall
WWWWL
Net +16.4
Home
WWWW
Net +16.8
Away
WL
Net +16.0
Team stats
Hills Hornets
Overall · Home/Away
Maitland Mustangs
37.5%H 33.3% · A 42.9%Win %62.5%H 62.5% · A 62.5%
-13.1H -18.2 · A -6.6Point differential16.4H 16.8 · A 16.0
78.4H 77.6 · A 79.4Points per game88.0H 86.3 · A 89.8
84.9H 86.7 · A 82.7Conceded79.8H 77.9 · A 81.8
44.5%H 44.0% · A 45.1%FG, %51.9%H 50.8% · A 53.1%
25.0H 22.2 · A 28.61st half75.0H 62.5
75.2H 75.9 · A 74.3Pace75.9H 75.0 · A 76.7
103.7H 101.3 · A 107.1Offensive rating116.2H 118.3 · A 114.1
112.4H 109.8 · A 116.0Defensive rating105.4H 107.3 · A 103.5
Team totals distribution
Over 70.5 - 100.5
Hills Hornets
Total (over)
Maitland Mustangs
78.4
Points per game
88.0
43.8%
O 79.5
68.8%
37.5%
O 80.5
68.8%
37.5%
O 81.5
68.8%
31.3%
O 82.5
68.8%
31.3%
O 83.5srednee
68.8%
12.5%
O 84.5
68.8%
12.5%
O 85.5
56.3%
12.5%
O 86.5
50.0%
Over 101.5 - 130.5
Hills Hornets
Total (over)
Maitland Mustangs
6.3%
O 101.5
25.0%
6.3%
O 102.5
18.8%
6.3%
O 103.5
12.5%
6.3%
O 104.5
6.3%
0.0%
O 105.5
6.3%
0.0%
O 106.5
6.3%
Points by period
1st half (Q1+Q2)
Points per game: Hills Hornets — / Maitland Mustangs 46.6
Hills Hornets
Total (over)
Maitland Mustangs
37.5%
O 40.5
68.8%
31.3%
O 41.5
68.8%
25.0%
O 42.5
62.5%
12.5%
O 43.5srednee
56.3%
2nd half (Q3+Q4)
Points per game: Hills Hornets 41.0 / Maitland Mustangs 41.4
Hills Hornets
Total (over)
Maitland Mustangs
62.5%
O 40.5
62.5%
56.3%
O 41.5srednee
56.3%
43.8%
O 42.5
56.3%
18.8%
O 43.5
56.3%
Buy the full AI analysis
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: 100 RUB
Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.
Match center
Hills Hornets - Maitland Mustangs
Form
4/5
recent games
H2H
1
head-to-head matches
Market
0
model / bookmakers
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
6.70
Fonbet · line only
1
1.04
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 147.5
1.82
Fonbet · line only
Over 148.5
1.85
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Handicap
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 1.88 53.2% | 1.80 55.6% | |
| 1.88 53.2% | 1.84 54.4% | |
| 1.88 53.2% | 1.86 53.8% | |
| 1.83 54.6% | 1.90 52.6% | |
| 1.88 53.2% | — | |
| 1.78 56.2% | 1.84 54.4% | |
| 1.83 54.6% | 1.81 55.3% | |
| 1.78 56.2% | — | |
| 1.78 56.2% | 1.90 52.6% | |
| 1.79 55.9% | 1.86 53.8% |
Total
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 147.5 | — | — | 1.82 55.0% |
| Over 148.5 | — | — | 1.85 54.1% |
| Over 149.5 | — | — | 1.65 60.6% |
| Over 150.5 | — | — | 1.73 57.8% |
| Over 151.5 | — | — | 1.47 68.0% |
| Over 152.5 | — | — | 1.42 70.4% |
| Over 153.5 | — | — | 1.50 66.7% |
| Over 154.5 | — | — | 1.57 63.7% |
| Over 165.5 | 1.84 54.4% | 1.83 54.6% | — |
| Over 166.5 | 1.83 54.6% | 1.87 53.5% | — |
| Over 167.5 | 1.84 54.4% | — | — |
| Under 165.5 | 1.83 54.6% | 1.87 53.5% | — |
| Under 166.5 | 1.83 54.6% | 1.83 54.6% | — |
| Under 167.5 | 1.83 54.6% | — | — |
Outcome (1X2)
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.15 46.5% | 2.10 47.6% | 1.04 96.2% | 2.27 44.1% | |
| 1.61 62.1% | 1.66 60.2% | 6.70 14.9% | 1.67 59.9% |
Match center
Hills Hornets
L
W
L
L
Hills Hornets
75:84
Albury-Wodonga Bandits
Albury-Wodonga Bandits
Hills Hornets
82:74
Inner West Bulls
Inner West Bulls
Hills Hornets
60:74
Manli Varringa
Manli Varringa
Hills Hornets
76:82
Meytland Mustangs
1
Wins
3
Losses
73.3
Scored
78.5
Conceded
25%
Win percentage
Maitland Mustangs
W
W
L
W
W
Maitland Mustangs
91:72
Inner West Bulls
Inner West Bulls
Maitland Mustangs
85:67
Sydney Comets
Sydney Comets
Maitland Mustangs
86:99
Norths Bears (Zh)
Norths Bears (Zh)
Maitland Mustangs
85:61
Manli Varringa
Manli Varringa
Maitland Mustangs
82:76
Khills Khornets
4
Wins
1
Losses
85.8
Scored
75.0
Conceded
80%
Win percentage
Match center
Full head-to-head historyHills Hornets - Maitland Mustangs
Hills Hornets
1
matches total
Hills Hornets: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Maitland Mustangs: 1 (100%)
Biggest win
Meytland Mustangs 76:82 (23.05 07:00 UTC)
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
158 goals (76:82, 23.05 07:00 UTC)
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Khills Khornets
76:82
Meytland Mustangs