Match center
Start
04.07.2026 05:00 UTC
04.07.2026 05:00 UTC
Finished
Australia. NBL 1
Manly Warringah Sea Eagles - Sutherland Sharks
63
:
88
Finished
Match signals
Two independent model estimates. Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
🔒 «Formula lock»
1Manly Warringah Sea Eagles — 82%
The formula agrees with the market favourite in the moderate-odds zone — historically the most profitable slice (basketball/football/hockey). NOT a profit guarantee.
💎 «Value»
2Sutherland Sharks — odds 9.00 · edge +6.9% · 4 bookies
The model rates the probability higher than the price implies. Elevated risk/variance; the signal is not confirmed on a large sample.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Manly Warringah Sea Eagles - Sutherland Sharks July 4, 2026
Basketball math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite Fonbet: Sutherland Sharks. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- Win odds (Fonbet): 1 6.70 / 2 1.04
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner
bookmaker margin 11.1%
1
13.4%
2
86.6%
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Basketball stats
Head-to-head and team form
Head-to-head
Team form
Manly Warringah Sea Eagles
Overall
WWWWW
Net +50.2
Home
WWWW
Net +72.9
Away
WW
Net +24.8
Sutherland Sharks
Overall
LLLLL
Net +2.9
Home
LLL
Net +12.6
Away
LLW
Net -5.5
Team stats
Manly Warringah Sea Eagles
Overall · Home/Away
Sutherland Sharks
94.1%H 100.0% · A 87.5%Win %40.0%H 42.9% · A 37.5%
50.2H 72.9 · A 24.8Point differential2.9H 12.6 · A -5.5
86.1H 93.4 · A 77.8Points per game74.4H 78.3 · A 71.0
60.9H 57.0 · A 65.4Conceded72.9H 72.0 · A 73.8
45.2%H 49.2% · A 40.6%FG, %45.3%H 49.3% · A 42.3%
—1st half40.0H 42.9 · A 37.5
73.1H 74.5 · A 71.6Pace71.0H 65.9 · A 74.8
116.7H 115.4 · A 118.3Offensive rating104.5H 112.6 · A 99.2
82.6H 81.7 · A 83.8Defensive rating102.5H 110.3 · A 97.3
Team totals distribution
Over 70.5 - 100.5
Manly Warringah Sea Eagles
Total (over)
Sutherland Sharks
86.1
Points per game
74.4
76.5%
O 76.5
33.3%
76.5%
O 77.5
33.3%
76.5%
O 78.5
26.7%
76.5%
O 79.5
26.7%
58.8%
O 80.5srednee
20.0%
52.9%
O 81.5
20.0%
52.9%
O 82.5
20.0%
47.1%
O 83.5
20.0%
Over 101.5 - 130.5
Manly Warringah Sea Eagles
Total (over)
Sutherland Sharks
11.8%
O 108.5
0.0%
11.8%
O 109.5
0.0%
5.9%
O 110.5
0.0%
5.9%
O 111.5
0.0%
5.9%
O 112.5
0.0%
5.9%
O 113.5
0.0%
5.9%
O 114.5
0.0%
5.9%
O 115.5
0.0%
Points by period
1st half (Q1+Q2)
Points per game: Manly Warringah Sea Eagles 45.6 / Sutherland Sharks —
Manly Warringah Sea Eagles
Total (over)
Sutherland Sharks
70.6%
O 40.5
26.7%
70.6%
O 41.5
26.7%
64.7%
O 42.5
26.7%
64.7%
O 43.5srednee
20.0%
2nd half (Q3+Q4)
Points per game: Manly Warringah Sea Eagles 40.5 / Sutherland Sharks —
Manly Warringah Sea Eagles
Total (over)
Sutherland Sharks
35.3%
O 40.5srednee
33.3%
35.3%
O 41.5
33.3%
23.5%
O 42.5
20.0%
23.5%
O 43.5
20.0%
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Match center
Manly Warringah Sea Eagles - Sutherland Sharks
Form
4/5
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
0
model / bookmakers
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
1.04
Fonbet · line only
1
6.70
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 130.5
1.70
Fonbet · line only
Over 131.5
1.80
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Handicap
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 1.88 53.2% | 1.84 54.4% | |
| 1.88 53.2% | — | |
| 1.83 54.6% | — | |
| 1.83 54.6% | — | |
| 1.88 53.2% | — | |
| 1.84 54.4% | — | |
| — | 1.85 54.1% | |
| 1.78 56.2% | — | |
| 1.83 54.6% | — | |
| — | 1.85 54.1% | |
| 1.78 56.2% | 1.86 53.8% | |
| 1.78 56.2% | 1.80 55.6% | |
| 1.83 54.6% | — | |
| 1.83 54.6% | 1.88 53.2% |
Total
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 130.5 | — | — | 1.70 58.8% |
| Over 131.5 | — | — | 1.80 55.6% |
| Over 132.5 | — | — | 1.90 52.6% |
| Over 133.5 | — | — | 1.60 62.5% |
| Over 134.5 | — | — | 1.70 58.8% |
| Over 135.5 | — | — | 1.80 55.6% |
| Over 136.5 | — | — | 1.90 52.6% |
| Over 137.5 | — | — | 2.02 49.5% |
| Over 138.5 | — | — | 1.60 62.5% |
| Over 139.5 | — | — | 1.57 63.7% |
| Over 163.5 | 1.80 55.6% | 1.82 55.0% | — |
| Over 164.5 | 1.81 55.3% | 1.90 52.6% | — |
| Under 163.5 | 1.86 53.8% | 1.88 53.2% | — |
| Under 164.5 | 1.86 53.8% | 1.80 55.6% | — |
Outcome (1X2)
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.66 60.2% | 1.56 64.1% | 6.70 14.9% | 1.70 58.8% | |
| 2.05 48.8% | 2.25 44.4% | 1.04 96.2% | 2.22 45.1% |
Match center
Manly Warringah Sea Eagles
W
W
W
L
Manly Warringah Sea Eagles
87:72
FFA Central of Eksellens
FFA Central of Eksellens
Manly Warringah Sea Eagles
111:70
Albury-Wodonga Bandits
Albury-Wodonga Bandits
Manly Warringah Sea Eagles
74:60
Khills Khornets
Manly Warringah Sea Eagles
61:85
Meytland Mustangs
3
Wins
1
Losses
83.3
Scored
71.8
Conceded
75%
Win percentage
Sutherland Sharks
W
L
W
W
L
Sutherland Sharks
78:75
Kanberra
Kanberra
Sutherland Sharks
87:95
Hornsby S.
Hornsby S.
Sutherland Sharks
102:80
Penrit Panters
Penrit Panters
Sutherland Sharks
87:62
Sydney Comets
Sydney Comets
Sutherland Sharks
99:104
Central Coast Crusaders
Central Coast Crusaders
3
Wins
2
Losses
90.6
Scored
83.2
Conceded
60%
Win percentage
Match center
Full head-to-head historyManly Warringah Sea Eagles - Sutherland Sharks
Manly Warringah Sea Eagles
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals