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Australia. NBL 1
Australia. NBL 1
04.07.2026 09:00 UTC Match prediction
04.07.2026 09:00 UTC
Finished

Australia. NBL 1

Geraldton Buccaneers - Rockingham Flames

Basketball
Geraldton Buccaneers
Geraldton Buccaneers
102 : 93
Finished
Rockingham Flames
Rockingham Flames
Match signals

Two independent model estimates. Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

🔒 «Formula lock»

2Rockingham Flames — 61%

The formula agrees with the market favourite in the moderate-odds zone — historically the most profitable slice (basketball/football/hockey). NOT a profit guarantee.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Geraldton Buccaneers - Rockingham Flames July 4, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Geraldton Buccaneers. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.02 / 2 8.50

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 9.8%
1 89.3%
2 10.7%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Basketball stats

Head-to-head and team form

Head-to-head

0Wins2
0.0%Win %100.0%
80.0Points per game95.5
86.6Offensive rating109.7
103.4Defensive rating91.9
-15.5Point differential15.5
46.5Assists79.5
90.0Rebounds115.5
28.5%3-pointers, %32.5%

Team form

Geraldton Buccaneers
Overall WLWWW Net +22.3
Home WWW Net +28.9
Away LWW Net +16.5
Rockingham Flames
Overall WWWWW Net +41.3
Home WWW Net +33.1
Away WWW Net +50.5

Team stats

Geraldton Buccaneers Overall · Home/Away Rockingham Flames
80.0%H 71.4% · A 87.5%Win %88.2%H 77.8% · A 100.0%
22.3H 28.9 · A 16.5Point differential41.3H 33.1 · A 50.5
96.7H 99.7 · A 94.0Points per game107.3H 104.4 · A 110.5
85.5H 85.3 · A 85.8Conceded86.7H 87.9 · A 85.3
52.4%H 53.3% · A 51.6%FG, %54.9%H 52.1% · A 58.1%
73.3A 62.51st half76.5H 66.7
76.3H 77.0 · A 75.7Pace82.5H 84.7 · A 80.0
125.8H 123.0 · A 128.4Offensive rating129.2H 125.5 · A 133.6
111.3H 108.8 · A 113.6Defensive rating104.4H 101.4 · A 107.9

Team totals distribution

Over 70.5 - 100.5

Geraldton Buccaneers Total (over) Rockingham Flames
96.7 Points per game 107.3
53.3%
O 93.5
82.4%
53.3%
O 94.5
82.4%
53.3%
O 95.5
82.4%
53.3%
O 96.5
82.4%
53.3%
O 97.5
82.4%
53.3%
O 98.5
82.4%
53.3%
O 99.5
82.4%
53.3%
O 100.5srednee
76.5%

Over 101.5 - 130.5

Geraldton Buccaneers Total (over) Rockingham Flames
26.7%
O 106.5
64.7%
26.7%
O 107.5
64.7%
13.3%
O 108.5
58.8%
13.3%
O 109.5
52.9%
13.3%
O 110.5
41.2%
13.3%
O 111.5
41.2%
6.7%
O 112.5
35.3%
6.7%
O 113.5
29.4%

Points by period

1st half (Q1+Q2)

Points per game: Geraldton Buccaneers 47.9 / Rockingham Flames 56.6

Geraldton Buccaneers Total (over) Rockingham Flames
33.3%
O 50.5
76.5%
33.3%
O 51.5
70.6%
33.3%
O 52.5srednee
70.6%
26.7%
O 53.5
58.8%
2nd half (Q3+Q4)

Points per game: Geraldton Buccaneers 47.8 / Rockingham Flames 49.9

Geraldton Buccaneers Total (over) Rockingham Flames
53.3%
O 47.5
64.7%
46.7%
O 48.5srednee
52.9%
33.3%
O 49.5
41.2%
33.3%
O 50.5
29.4%

Clubs and venues

Team reference

Geraldton Buccaneers
  • Dzheraldton
  • Founded in 1989
Rockingham Flames
No data

Reference data on clubs and venues: Wikidata.

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Match center
Start 04.07.2026 09:00 UTC
Match center

Geraldton Buccaneers - Rockingham Flames

Form 3/3 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 8.50 Fonbet · line only
1 1.02 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 101.5 1.98 Fonbet · line only
Over 102.5 2.00 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
2.05 48.8%
2.65 37.7%
2.50 40.0%
1.43 69.9%
1.53 65.4%
1.45 69.0%
1.75 57.1%
1.67 59.9%
1.57 63.7%
1.50 66.7%
2.20 45.5%
1.40 71.4%
1.80 55.6%
1.42 70.4%
1.50 66.7%
1.40 71.4%
1.75 57.1%
1.52 65.8%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 101.5 1.98 50.5%
Over 102.5 2.00 50.0%
Over 103.5 2.05 48.8%
Over 104.5 1.75 57.1%
Over 180.5 1.55 64.5%
Over 181.5 1.65 60.6%
Over 182.5 1.70 58.8%
Over 183.5 1.80 55.6%
Over 184.5 1.88 53.2%
Over 185.5 1.95 51.3%
Over 186.5 2.10 47.6%
Over 187.5 2.18 45.9%
Over 188.5 2.30 43.5%
Over 189.5 1.55 64.5%
Over 190.5 1.62 61.7%
Over 191.5 1.45 69.0%
Over 192.5 1.50 66.7%
Over 193.5 1.58 63.3%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Fonbet Leon
1.02 98.0% 2.59 38.6%
8.50 11.8% 1.53 65.4%
Match center
Geraldton Buccaneers
W W W
13.06 08:00 UTC Australia: NBL1 West
Geraldton Buccaneers 108:90 Joondalup WolvesJoondalup Wolves
31.05 08:00 UTC Australia: NBL1 West
Geraldton Buccaneers 108:88 Warwick SenatorsWarwick Senators
24.05 04:00 UTC Australia: NBL1 West
Geraldton Buccaneers 102:100 Lakeside LightningLakeside Lightning
3 Wins
0 Losses
106.0 Scored
92.7 Conceded
100% Win percentage
Rockingham Flames
W W W
12.06 10:10 UTC Australia: NBL1 West
Rockingham Flames 108:89 Beeliar BoodjarBeeliar Boodjar
06.06 10:00 UTC Australia: NBL1 West
Rockingham Flames 120:86 East Perth EaglesEast Perth Eagles
23.05 10:00 UTC Australia: NBL1 West
Rockingham Flames 99:76 Warwick SenatorsWarwick Senators
3 Wins
0 Losses
109.0 Scored
83.7 Conceded
100% Win percentage