•Model backs Kampu-Moran U22: probability 52% vs 32% on the line (odds 3.10)
•edge over the line +20 pp — value pick
•Total: Over 152.5: model expects a total of ~160 ochk
•at line 152.5 (odds 1.85)
•Handicap F2 +7.5: score forecast 79:81 (diff -2) covers the line (odds 1.80).
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
*
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Mogi U22 - Campo Mourao U22 August 1, 2026
Basketball math model
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite Fonbet: Mogi U22. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.32 / 2 3.10
%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner
bookmaker margin 8.0%
170.1%
229.9%
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
⇅
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Pobeditel P11.32→ 1.32
Pobeditel P23.10→ 3.10
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
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Match center
Start01.08.2026 14:45 UTC
Market1 70.1% @ 1.32 / 2 29.9% @ 3.10
Form4 matches
Match center
Mogi U22 - Campo Mourao U22
V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.
Form2/2
recent games
H2H0
head-to-head matches
Market2
model / bookmakers
Flashscorematch data
source checked
Oddsmatch data
source checked
Bookiesapimatch data
source checked
Line depthmatch data
source checked
Present in data
MarketFormMatchParticipantsLineMovementOverview
More needed
H2HChampionat, Flashscore
TournamentChampionat, Flashscore
Lineup / squadChampionat, Injuries
Market and Glicko
Basketball math model.
The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.
OutcomeLineGlickoSignal
Mogi U2270.1%47.6%market favourite
Campo Mourao U2229.9%52.4%Glicko contrarian
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Basketball math model
P1 / P247.6% / 52.4%
probabilities
Rating1,583 / 1,723
Mogi U22 / Campo Mourao U22
RD268 / 278
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD1,047-2,120 / 1,167-2,279
strength interval
The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.
Betting snapshot
1X2
23.10
Fonbet · weak value +62.4% · model 52.4%
11.32
Fonbet · no value · model 47.6%
Total
Over 152.51.85
Fonbet · line only
Under 152.51.85
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
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