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Chile. Liga Nacional International

02.08.2026 00:00 UTC

Not started

Chile. Liga Nacional

Deportes Castro - Valdivia

International Basketball

Deportes Castro

- : -

Not started

Valdivia

🎯 PropickAI prediction

High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Valdivia — 61%

1 · Deportes Castro39.4%

market15%

2 · Valdivia ✓ Pick60.6%

market85%

Model estimate: win Deportes Castro 39.4%, win Valdivia 60.6%. Model favourite — Valdivia.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Deportes Castro - Valdivia August 2, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Valdivia. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

Win odds (Fonbet): 1 6.30 / 2 1.08

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Winner bookmaker margin 8.5%

1 14.6%

2 ✓ Pick 85.4%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Pobeditel P1 6.30 → 6.30

Pobeditel P2 1.08 → 1.08

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 02.08.2026 00:00 UTC

Form 6 matches

H2H 1

Match center

Deportes Castro - Valdivia

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov i 1 ochnykh vstrech.

Form 5/3 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 2 model / bookmakers

Flashscore match data source checked

Odds match data source checked

Bookiesapi match data source checked

Line depth match data source checked

Present in data

Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement Overview

More needed

Tournament Championat, Flashscore

Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries

Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Deportes Castro 14.6% 39.4%

Valdivia 85.4% 60.6% market and model agree

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Basketball math model

P1 / P2 39.4% / 60.6% probabilities

Rating 1,497 / 1,922 Deportes Castro / Valdivia

RD 234 / 193 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 1,029-1,965 / 1,536-2,309 strength interval

HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.08 Fonbet · no value · model 60.6%

1 6.30 Fonbet · no value · model 39.4%

Total

Over 163.5 1.85 Fonbet · line only

Under 163.5 1.85 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet
1.83 54.6%	1.82 55.0%	1.85 54.1%
—	—	1.85 54.1%
1.89 52.9%	1.88 53.2%	—

Total

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet
Over 163.5	1.85 54.1%	1.84 54.4%	1.85 54.1%
Under 163.5	1.87 53.5%	1.86 53.8%	1.85 54.1%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet
	6.40 15.6%	6.40 15.6%	6.30 15.9%
	1.09 91.7%	1.08 92.6%	1.08 92.6%

Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 2-0-5

2026-07-11 · Kastro 54:90 Valdiviya

2026-04-19 · Kastro 68:102 Valdiviya

2026-03-28 · Kastro 76:81 Valdiviya

2024-03-31 · Kastro 68:71 Valdiviya

2024-02-10 · Kastro 88:79 Valdiviya

Source: ruscore

Deportes Castro

W W L W L

26.07 23:30 UTC Chile. Liga Nasional

Deportes Castro 69:64 Puerto Montt

23.07 01:30 UTC Chile. Liga Nasional

Deportes Castro 76:73 Ankud

19.07 23:30 UTC Chile. Liga Nasional

Deportes Castro 69:77 Atletiko RTO Varas

19.07 00:00 UTC Chile. Liga Nasional

Deportes Castro 87:76 Las Animas

12.07 23:30 UTC Chile. Liga Nasional

Deportes Castro 78:92 Espanol Osorno

3 Wins

2 Losses

75.8 Scored

76.4 Conceded

60% Win percentage

Valdivia

W W W

27.07 00:30 UTC Chile. Liga Nasional

Valdivia 100:66 Las Animas

26.07 00:30 UTC Chile. Liga Nasional

Valdivia 85:68 Atletiko RTO Varas

11.07 23:30 UTC Chile. Liga Nasional

Valdivia 90:54 Deportes Kastro

3 Wins

0 Losses

91.7 Scored

62.7 Conceded

100% Win percentage

Match center

Full head-to-head historyDeportes Castro - Valdivia

Deportes Castro

1 matches total

Valdivia

Deportes Castro: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Valdivia: 1 (100%)

Biggest win Valdiviya 54:90 (11.07 23:30 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 144 goals (54:90, 11.07 23:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

11.07 23:30 UTC Chile. Liga Nasional

Deportes Kastro

54:90

Valdiviya