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Chile. Liga NacionalInternational
03.08.2026 00:00 UTC
03.08.2026 00:00 UTC
Not started
Chile. Liga Nacional
Puerto Montt - Atletico PTO Varas
InternationalBasketball
Puerto Montt
-:-
Not started
Atletico PTO Varas
Puerto Montt meet Atletico PTO Varas on August 3, 2026 in the Chile. Liga Nacional, International.
Recent form (W-D-L): Puerto Montt 1-0-4, Atletico PTO Varas 2-0-3. These sides have met 1 time recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)
2Atletico PTO Varas — 63%
Pure model vs market (2 · Atletico PTO Varas): model 60% · market 63%Δ −3 ppmodel estimates below the market
63%2
1 · Puerto Montt36.5%
market37%
2 · Atletico PTO Varas ✓ Pick63.5%
market63%
Model estimate: win Puerto Montt 36.5%, win Atletico PTO Varas 63.5%. Model favourite — Atletico PTO Varas.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
🤖AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
2Atletico PTO Varas (odds1.46)Score 78:82Over 159.5(odds1.82)Handicap H1 +4.5(odds1.90)confidence 63%
•Puerto Montt: forma VPPPP (1-4)
•Atletiko RTO Varas: forma VPPVP (2-3)
•ochnye 0-1 (za 1)
•Model backs Atletiko RTO Varas: probability 63% vs 69% on the line (odds 1.46)
•no edge over the line (-5 pp) — informational only
•Total: Over 159.5: model expects a total of ~160 ochk
•at line 159.5 (odds 1.82)
•Handicap F1 +4.5: score forecast 78:82 (diff -4) covers the line (odds 1.90).
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
*
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Puerto Montt - Atletico PTO Varas August 3, 2026
Basketball math model
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite Fonbet: Atletico PTO Varas. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
Win odds (Fonbet): 1 2.53 / 2 1.46
%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner
bookmaker margin 8.0%
136.6%
2 ✓ Pick63.4%
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
⇅
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Pobeditel P12.53→ 2.53
Pobeditel P21.46→ 1.46
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
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Match center
Start03.08.2026 00:00 UTC
Market1 36.6% @ 2.53 / 2 63.4% @ 1.46
Form6 matches
H2H1
Match center
Puerto Montt - Atletico PTO Varas
V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov i 1 ochnykh vstrech.
Basketball math model.
The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.
OutcomeLineGlickoSignal
Puerto Montt36.3%36.5%
Atletico PTO Varas63.8%63.5%market and model agree
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Basketball math model
P1 / P236.5% / 63.5%
probabilities
Rating1,019 / 1,409
Puerto Montt / Atletico PTO Varas
RD193 / 182
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD633-1,405 / 1,046-1,772
strength interval
The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.
Betting snapshot
1X2
21.46
Fonbet · no value · model 63.5%
12.53
Fonbet · no value · model 36.5%
Total
Over 159.51.82
Fonbet · line only
Over 160.51.89
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
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