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Ecuador. LBP
Ecuador. LBP International
05.08.2026 01:00 UTC
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line –Form –H2H ✓Prediction
05.08.2026 01:00 UTC
Not started

Ecuador. LBP

Piratas De Los Lagos - Cuenca Basket

International Basketball
Piratas De Los Lagos
Piratas De Los Lagos
- : -
Not started
Cuenca Basket
Cuenca Basket

Piratas De Los Lagos take on Cuenca Basket on August 5, 2026 in the Ecuador. LBP, International.

Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Piratas De Los Lagos — 52%

1 · Piratas De Los Lagos51.6%
2 · Cuenca Basket48.4%

Model estimate: win Piratas De Los Lagos 51.6%, win Cuenca Basket 48.4%. Model favourite — Piratas De Los Lagos.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Piratas De Los Lagos (odds1.42) Score 81:79 Over 158.5 (odds1.85) Handicap H2 +5.5 (odds1.85) confidence 52%
  • • Model backs Piratas De Los Lagos: probability 52% vs 70% on the line (odds 1.42)
  • • no edge over the line (-19 pp) — informational only
  • • Total: Over 158.5: model expects a total of ~160 ochk
  • • at line 158.5 (odds 1.85)
  • • Handicap F2 +5.5: score forecast 81:79 (diff +2) covers the line (odds 1.85).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Piratas De Los Lagos - Cuenca Basket August 5, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Piratas De Los Lagos. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.42 / 2 2.65

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.2%
1 65.1%
2 34.9%

Odds source: Fonbet line. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner P1 1.46 → 1.46
Winner P2 2.53 → 2.53

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 05.08.2026 01:00 UTC
Market 1 65.1% @ 1.42 / 2 34.9% @ 2.65
Match center

Piratas De Los Lagos - Cuenca Basket

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Match Participants Line Movement
More needed
Form Championat, Flashscore
H2H Championat, Flashscore
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries
Overview Championat
Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Piratas De Los Lagos 63.4% 51.6% market and model agree
Cuenca Basket 36.6% 48.4%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Basketball math model
P1 / P2 51.6% / 48.4% probabilities
Rating 1,839 / 1,500 Piratas De Los Lagos / Cuenca Basket
RD 300 / 350 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,240-2,439 / 800-2,200 strength interval
HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.65 Fonbet · weak value +28.2% · model 48.4%
1 1.42 Fonbet · no value · model 51.6%
Total
Over 158.5 1.85 Fonbet · line only
Under 158.5 1.85 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
1.85 54.1%
1.85 54.1%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 158.5 1.85 54.1%
Under 158.5 1.85 54.1%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Fonbet
1.42 70.4%
2.65 37.7%