Match center
Start
05.07.2026 11:00 UTC
05.07.2026 11:00 UTC
Finished
Europe: Evrobasket - Qualifying - First qualifying round
Azerbaijan - Ireland
70
:
76
Finished
Match signals
Two independent model estimates. Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
🔒 «Formula lock»
1Azerbaijan — 67%
The formula agrees with the market favourite in the moderate-odds zone — historically the most profitable slice (basketball/football/hockey). NOT a profit guarantee.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Azerbaijan - Ireland July 5, 2026
Basketball math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite Fonbet: Ireland. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- Win odds (Fonbet): 1 3.40 / 2 1.22
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner
bookmaker margin 11.4%
1
26.4%
2
73.6%
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Basketball stats
Head-to-head and team form
Head-to-head
Team form
Azerbaijan
Overall
LWLLL
Net -25.0
Home
LLL
Net -13.0
Away
WLL
Net -37.0
Ireland
Overall
WLLLW
Net -9.5
Home
WLLW
Net -4.7
Away
LW
Net -24.0
Team stats
Azerbaijan
Overall · Home/Away
Ireland
25.0%H 0.0% · A 50.0%Win %25.0%H 33.3% · A 0.0%
-25.0H -13.0 · A -37.0Point differential-9.5H -4.7 · A -24.0
71.3H 80.0 · A 62.5Points per game79.8H 80.7 · A 77.0
83.8H 86.5 · A 81.0Conceded84.5H 83.0 · A 89.0
39.5%H 46.0% · A 33.0%FG, %40.5%H 39.7% · A 43.0%
50.0H 50.0 · A 50.01st half25.0H 33.3 · A 0.0
74.1H 72.7 · A 75.4Pace74.5H 74.3 · A 75.2
96.0H 97.0 · A 95.1Offensive rating106.3H 107.0 · A 104.3
112.9H 114.0 · A 111.8Defensive rating112.6H 113.3 · A 110.5
Team totals distribution
Over 70.5 - 100.5
Azerbaijan
Total (over)
Ireland
71.3
Points per game
79.8
50.0%
O 72.5
100.0%
50.0%
O 73.5
100.0%
50.0%
O 74.5
100.0%
50.0%
O 75.5среднее
75.0%
25.0%
O 76.5
50.0%
25.0%
O 77.5
25.0%
25.0%
O 78.5
25.0%
25.0%
O 79.5
25.0%
Points by period
1st half (Q1+Q2)
Points per game: Azerbaijan — / Ireland —
Azerbaijan
Total (over)
Ireland
75.0%
O 40.5
0.0%
50.0%
O 41.5
0.0%
50.0%
O 42.5
0.0%
50.0%
O 43.5
0.0%
2nd half (Q3+Q4)
Points per game: Azerbaijan — / Ireland 42.0
Azerbaijan
Total (over)
Ireland
25.0%
O 40.5
25.0%
25.0%
O 41.5среднее
25.0%
25.0%
O 42.5
25.0%
25.0%
O 43.5
25.0%
Form and head-to-head • Eurobasket Qualification
Team stats
Azerbaijan
LLLLLLWLW
W 2 • D 0 • L 7 (9)
Goals average:69.56 : 82.78
3 place, 7 pts
Ireland
WWLWLLLWL
W 4 • D 0 • L 5 (9)
Goals average:76.67 : 79.56
4 place, 6 pts
Head-to-head: 3 — Azerbaijan 1, draws 0, Ireland 2 (goals 207:245)
- Ireland — Azerbaijan2026-02-27 75:76
- Azerbaijan — Ireland2025-02-23 64:79
- Ireland — Azerbaijan2024-11-21 91:67
Form, head-to-head and league position: 365scores. For reference.
Rest and schedule
Team freshness
Azerbaijan
Normal schedule- Rest days: 3
- Matches in 7 days: 1 (in 14: 1)
Ireland
Normal schedule- Rest days: 3
- Matches in 7 days: 1 (in 14: 1)
Rest and schedule density — from matches played in our database. For reference.
Totals and pace
Team scoring
Azerbaijan
150 points/match (over 1)
- Scores: 76
- Concedes: 74
Ireland
133 points/match (over 1)
- Scores: 56
- Concedes: 77
Total line: 151.5 · projection from form: 141.5 · Over in 0% of recent games
Average scoring and pace — from matches played in our database. For reference, not a prediction.
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Match center
Azerbaijan - Ireland
Form
1/1
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
0
model / bookmakers
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
1.22
Fonbet · line only
1
3.40
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 140.5
1.90
Fonbet · line only
Over 141.5
1.85
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Handicap
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | 2.00 50.0% | |
| — | — | 1.80 55.6% | |
| — | — | 1.80 55.6% | |
| 1.90 52.6% | 1.87 53.5% | — | |
| — | — | 1.95 51.3% | |
| 1.90 52.6% | 1.87 53.5% | — | |
| — | — | 1.72 58.1% | |
| — | — | 1.90 52.6% | |
| — | — | 1.90 52.6% | |
| — | — | 1.88 53.2% | |
| — | — | 1.92 52.1% | |
| — | — | 1.95 51.3% | |
| — | — | 1.95 51.3% | |
| — | — | 1.80 55.6% | |
| — | — | 1.85 54.1% | |
| — | — | 1.67 59.9% |
Total
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 78.5 | — | — | 1.80 55.6% |
| Over 140.5 | — | — | 1.90 52.6% |
| Over 141.5 | — | — | 1.85 54.1% |
| Over 142.5 | — | — | 1.87 53.5% |
| Over 144.5 | — | — | 1.80 55.6% |
| Over 145.5 | — | — | 1.92 52.1% |
| Over 146.5 | — | — | 1.82 55.0% |
| Over 147.5 | — | — | 1.80 55.6% |
| Over 148.5 | — | — | 1.70 58.8% |
| Over 149.5 | — | — | 1.93 51.8% |
| Over 150.5 | — | — | 1.83 54.6% |
| Over 151.5 | 1.90 52.6% | 1.87 53.5% | 1.88 53.2% |
| Over 152.5 | — | — | 1.90 52.6% |
| Over 153.5 | — | — | 1.96 51.0% |
| Under 151.5 | 1.90 52.6% | 1.87 53.5% | — |
Outcome (1X2)
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.38 72.5% | 1.35 74.1% | 3.40 29.4% | 1.41 70.9% | |
| 3.05 32.8% | 3.00 33.3% | 1.22 82.0% | 3.01 33.2% |
Match center
Azerbaijan
W
Azerbaijan
76:74
Luxembourg
1
Wins
0
Losses
76.0
Scored
74.0
Conceded
100%
Win percentage
Ireland
L
Ireland
56:77
North Macedonia
0
Wins
1
Losses
56.0
Scored
77.0
Conceded
0%
Win percentage
Match center
Full head-to-head historyAzerbaijan - Ireland
Azerbaijan
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals